Tropics are heating up

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over much of Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Gradual development of this system is possible while it moves west-northwestward during the next few days. This system is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late today, the central Gulf on Wednesday, and the northwestern Gulf on Thursday and Friday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become a little better organized in association with a low pressure system located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic. By the weekend, however, less favorable conditions should limit additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. 3. A weak trough of low pressure has moved inland along the central and upper Texas coasts. Although further weakening of this system is expected, isolated heavy rainfall could still occur over portions of southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the next day or two. These rains could result in localized flash flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Forecaster Stewart

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