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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Isaias - Heading Towards the Central Gulf Coast
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:23 pm to Jake88
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:23 pm to Jake88
The Lakefront Levees (They Mostly Held)
The massive earthen levees that run right along the shoreline of Lake Pontchartrain did not fail. Aside from some overtopping and minor erosion near Lakefront Airport on the eastern edge, the main lakefront wall successfully blocked the 10-to-14-foot storm surge from washing directly over the beach and into the lakefront neighborhoods. Neighborhoods right against the lake, like Lake Terrace, experienced very little direct flooding from the lakefront itself.
The Side-Door Canal Failures (Where the Water Entered)
Even though the lakefront didn't buckle, it acted as a massive reservoir. The storm surge raised the lake's water level drastically, which forced a catastrophic volume of water backward into the city's open outfall drainage canals.
Because there were no floodgates at the mouths of the canals in 2005, the lake's immense pressure pushed directly into the heart of the city, causing the infamous structural breaches:
• 17th Street Canal: Breached from the inside, drowning the Lakeview neighborhood and parts of Jefferson Parish.
• London Avenue Canal: Breached in two spots, flooding the Gentilly neighborhood.
• Industrial Canal: Overtopped and breached further east, devastating the Lower Ninth Ward.
Ultimately, the lakefront held the line, but the open canals acted like open doorways that allowed Lake Pontchartrain to pour straight into the city's low-lying bowl.
Would you like to see where the new post-Katrina permanent canal floodgates and pump stations were built to finally block Lake Pontchartrain's storm surges from entering these canals?
•
NOLA Ready (.gov)
Storm Surge & Coastal Flooding
10 to 14 feet. Several of the levees and floodwalls were overtopped. Most of the floodwall and levee breaches were due to erosion ...
•
PBS
NOVA | Storm That Drowned a City | How New Orleans Flooded (non-Flash) | PBS
Surges overtopped levees near Lakefront Airport, while catastrophic breaches occurred on the London Avenue Canal (9:30, 10:30 a.m.
•
Wikipedia
Lake Pontchartrain - Wikipedia
During hurricanes, a storm surge driven into the lake can overwhelm the levees protecting New Orleans, levee and floodwall failure...
Show all
The massive earthen levees that run right along the shoreline of Lake Pontchartrain did not fail. Aside from some overtopping and minor erosion near Lakefront Airport on the eastern edge, the main lakefront wall successfully blocked the 10-to-14-foot storm surge from washing directly over the beach and into the lakefront neighborhoods. Neighborhoods right against the lake, like Lake Terrace, experienced very little direct flooding from the lakefront itself.
The Side-Door Canal Failures (Where the Water Entered)
Even though the lakefront didn't buckle, it acted as a massive reservoir. The storm surge raised the lake's water level drastically, which forced a catastrophic volume of water backward into the city's open outfall drainage canals.
Because there were no floodgates at the mouths of the canals in 2005, the lake's immense pressure pushed directly into the heart of the city, causing the infamous structural breaches:
• 17th Street Canal: Breached from the inside, drowning the Lakeview neighborhood and parts of Jefferson Parish.
• London Avenue Canal: Breached in two spots, flooding the Gentilly neighborhood.
• Industrial Canal: Overtopped and breached further east, devastating the Lower Ninth Ward.
Ultimately, the lakefront held the line, but the open canals acted like open doorways that allowed Lake Pontchartrain to pour straight into the city's low-lying bowl.
Would you like to see where the new post-Katrina permanent canal floodgates and pump stations were built to finally block Lake Pontchartrain's storm surges from entering these canals?
•
NOLA Ready (.gov)
Storm Surge & Coastal Flooding
10 to 14 feet. Several of the levees and floodwalls were overtopped. Most of the floodwall and levee breaches were due to erosion ...
•
PBS
NOVA | Storm That Drowned a City | How New Orleans Flooded (non-Flash) | PBS
Surges overtopped levees near Lakefront Airport, while catastrophic breaches occurred on the London Avenue Canal (9:30, 10:30 a.m.
•
Wikipedia
Lake Pontchartrain - Wikipedia
During hurricanes, a storm surge driven into the lake can overwhelm the levees protecting New Orleans, levee and floodwall failure...
Show all
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:25 pm to NorthEndZone
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:25 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
It seemed like it might be a tornado problem. Duke mentioned something about this earlier in the thread potentially spawning tornadoes.
Imagine it this way. You have a storm that's spinning counterclockwise like a spinning top. However, when it gets closer to the coast that spinning top os running into a treadmill thats going real fast in a perpendicular-ish fashion (oysterpoboy dont get excited).
Basically the spinning top gets split. The momentum (i.e. clouds rain wind) get rushed off in the direction of the treadmill...but in the process things start getting super spinny because of the mixing of two things with momentum and force (in non equal forces)
This post was edited on 10/7/26 at 11:28 pm
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:30 pm to MasterAbe1
Saw your question above
Take a look at this link for Tornado threat
Isaias Tornado Threat Map
It doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for a landfalling tropical cyclone. The right-front quadrant (north to east of the center) is the most likely area for tornadoes. The experts are only expecting a few tornadoes in this case.
I saw that Midway is just within the yellow area of the tornado threat on the map but not in the wind threat map areas (but close enough where they could have unusually high wind gusts).
I'm not going to tell anyone what to do, but if they have trees near their residence that are close enough to possibly fall on them or don't live in a substantial structure they may want to play it safe and not stay there. Otherwise they should be okay.
quote:
does that increase the chance or tornadoes on the east side of the storm? I’ve got a close friend down in Midway who has a pregnant wife
Take a look at this link for Tornado threat
Isaias Tornado Threat Map
It doesn't look like anything out of the ordinary for a landfalling tropical cyclone. The right-front quadrant (north to east of the center) is the most likely area for tornadoes. The experts are only expecting a few tornadoes in this case.
I saw that Midway is just within the yellow area of the tornado threat on the map but not in the wind threat map areas (but close enough where they could have unusually high wind gusts).
I'm not going to tell anyone what to do, but if they have trees near their residence that are close enough to possibly fall on them or don't live in a substantial structure they may want to play it safe and not stay there. Otherwise they should be okay.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:32 pm to gaetti15
quote:
Imagine it this
It's hard to predict.
We've had some sheared storms that don't produce one tornado and others that do.
It really depends on the direction of the sheer in relation to the direction of the storm winds.
It can be a hindrance or a help.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:34 pm to tgrgrd00
quote:
It's hard to predict.
Oh yeah for sure.
Just describing the mechanism. Just like tops spinning and hitting walls the movement can be chaotic.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:41 pm to NorthEndZone
HOMEOWNER STORM PREPARATION & RECOVERY CHECKLIST
Hurricanes • Tropical Storms • Flooding • Hail • Ice & Winter Storms
I. PRE-STORM PREPARATION
A. Property Protection — All Severe Weather
• ? Monitor official weather alerts and evacuation or shelter instructions.
• ? Clear gutters, downspouts, drains and other water-flow paths.
• ? Secure or bring inside patio furniture, grills, umbrellas, toys, planters, garbage cans and other loose outdoor items.
• ? Trim dangerous or weak tree limbs well before hazardous conditions arrive; do not attempt tree work once conditions deteriorate.
• ? Check exterior doors, windows, locks, screens, shutters and weather seals.
• ? Inspect accessible roof areas from the ground or another safe location; do not climb onto a roof in unsafe conditions.
• ? Photograph vehicles and record current mileage; move them away from flood-prone areas, trees and potential falling objects when practical.
• ? Fill vehicle fuel tanks and fully charge electric vehicles before conditions worsen.
B. Hurricane / High-Wind / Hail Preparation
• ? Install approved shutters or other appropriate window protection if available.
• ? Secure or brace garage doors as appropriate.
• ? Close and lock exterior windows and doors.
• ? Close interior doors before high winds arrive.
• ? Secure sheds, fences, gates and outdoor equipment.
• ? Move valuable property away from windows and other vulnerable exterior openings.
C. Flood / Heavy-Rain Preparation
• ? Move valuables, electronics, important papers and vulnerable contents off floors and to higher levels where practical.
• ? Check sump pumps and backup power systems.
• ? Clear storm drains and drainage areas where it is safe and lawful to do so.
• ? Use appropriate flood barriers or sandbags when recommended and practical.
• ? Move vehicles and movable equipment to higher ground when possible.
D. Ice / Freeze / Winter-Storm Preparation
• ? Disconnect garden hoses and protect exterior faucets.
• ? Insulate exposed or vulnerable water pipes.
• ? Know the location of the main water shutoff and make sure it can be operated.
• ? Maintain adequate indoor heat; open sink cabinets where appropriate so warm air can reach vulnerable plumbing.
• ? Prepare for extended electrical outages and protect pets from freezing temperatures.
• ? Use generators and combustion heaters only in accordance with manufacturer safety instructions; never operate a portable generator inside a home, garage or enclosed/partially enclosed space.
II. SURVIVAL & EMERGENCY SUPPLIES
• ? Store drinking water — generally plan for at least one gallon per person per day, with additional water for pets and special needs.
• ? Maintain nonperishable food and a manual can opener.
• ? Refill essential prescription medications before the event when possible.
• ? Prepare first-aid supplies.
• ? Have flashlights or headlamps and spare batteries.
• ? Have a battery-powered or hand-crank weather radio.
• ? Fully charge cell phones, power banks, rechargeable lights and necessary medical equipment.
• ? Keep charging cables and vehicle chargers accessible.
• ? Keep reasonable emergency cash in useful denominations.
• ? Prepare hygiene and sanitation supplies.
• ? Have basic tools, work gloves, waterproof footwear and a fire extinguisher.
• ? Prepare pet food, water, medication, carriers, leashes and veterinary/vaccination records.
• ? Prepare baby, elder-care, disability and other household-specific supplies.
• ? If appropriate for the emergency, clean and fill bathtubs or large containers with water for sanitation and toilet flushing; keep drinking water separately in clean, food-safe containers.
• ? Test generators before the event and obtain fuel in approved containers before conditions become hazardous.
Evacuation / Go-Kit
• ? Identification and essential personal documents.
• ? Prescription medications and medical information.
• ? Insurance information and emergency contact numbers.
• ? Phones, chargers and power banks.
• ? Cash and payment cards.
• ? Food, water and essential clothing.
• ? Pet supplies and carriers/leashes.
• ? Irreplaceable small sentimental items if time and safety permit.
• ? Know more than one evacuation route and follow official evacuation instructions.
III. INSURANCE & PRE-LOSS DOCUMENTATION
(Have a drone or know someone who does take a detailed video of your roof condition. )
A. Document the Home's Pre-Storm Condition
• ? Make a continuous narrated video of the home's exterior from multiple angles.
• ? Photograph the roof from a safe vantage point, including visible shingles or roofing materials.
• ? Photograph gutters, downspouts, siding, brick, stucco, exterior paint, soffits, fascia, eaves, chimneys, vents and flashing.
• ? Photograph windows, screens, shutters, exterior doors and garage doors.
• ? Photograph HVAC units, generators and permanently installed exterior equipment.
• ? Photograph fences, gates, retaining walls, porches, patios, decks, balconies, driveways and walkways.
• ? Photograph pools, pumps, sheds, detached garages, outbuildings, trees and landscaping.
• ? Video every interior room slowly, including walls, ceilings and floors.
• ? Open and document closets, cabinets, cupboards, drawers and storage areas.
• ? Photograph flooring, countertops, cabinetry, built-ins, appliances, furniture, electronics, artwork, jewelry, collections and other valuable contents.
• ? Photograph accessible attic, basement and crawlspace areas where safe.
• ? Capture model and serial numbers for major appliances and electronics.
• ? If safe shortly before the event, make one final dated/time-stamped video showing the property's condition immediately before the storm.
B. Create or Update a Home Inventory
• ? Record item description, manufacturer/brand, model and serial number where applicable.
• ? Record approximate purchase date, age and original cost when known.
• ? Keep receipts, invoices, appraisals and photographs for valuable property.
• ? Record current replacement cost for significant items where practical.
• ? Keep the inventory somewhere other than solely inside the home; maintain a secure cloud or off-site backup.
Hurricanes • Tropical Storms • Flooding • Hail • Ice & Winter Storms
I. PRE-STORM PREPARATION
A. Property Protection — All Severe Weather
• ? Monitor official weather alerts and evacuation or shelter instructions.
• ? Clear gutters, downspouts, drains and other water-flow paths.
• ? Secure or bring inside patio furniture, grills, umbrellas, toys, planters, garbage cans and other loose outdoor items.
• ? Trim dangerous or weak tree limbs well before hazardous conditions arrive; do not attempt tree work once conditions deteriorate.
• ? Check exterior doors, windows, locks, screens, shutters and weather seals.
• ? Inspect accessible roof areas from the ground or another safe location; do not climb onto a roof in unsafe conditions.
• ? Photograph vehicles and record current mileage; move them away from flood-prone areas, trees and potential falling objects when practical.
• ? Fill vehicle fuel tanks and fully charge electric vehicles before conditions worsen.
B. Hurricane / High-Wind / Hail Preparation
• ? Install approved shutters or other appropriate window protection if available.
• ? Secure or brace garage doors as appropriate.
• ? Close and lock exterior windows and doors.
• ? Close interior doors before high winds arrive.
• ? Secure sheds, fences, gates and outdoor equipment.
• ? Move valuable property away from windows and other vulnerable exterior openings.
C. Flood / Heavy-Rain Preparation
• ? Move valuables, electronics, important papers and vulnerable contents off floors and to higher levels where practical.
• ? Check sump pumps and backup power systems.
• ? Clear storm drains and drainage areas where it is safe and lawful to do so.
• ? Use appropriate flood barriers or sandbags when recommended and practical.
• ? Move vehicles and movable equipment to higher ground when possible.
D. Ice / Freeze / Winter-Storm Preparation
• ? Disconnect garden hoses and protect exterior faucets.
• ? Insulate exposed or vulnerable water pipes.
• ? Know the location of the main water shutoff and make sure it can be operated.
• ? Maintain adequate indoor heat; open sink cabinets where appropriate so warm air can reach vulnerable plumbing.
• ? Prepare for extended electrical outages and protect pets from freezing temperatures.
• ? Use generators and combustion heaters only in accordance with manufacturer safety instructions; never operate a portable generator inside a home, garage or enclosed/partially enclosed space.
II. SURVIVAL & EMERGENCY SUPPLIES
• ? Store drinking water — generally plan for at least one gallon per person per day, with additional water for pets and special needs.
• ? Maintain nonperishable food and a manual can opener.
• ? Refill essential prescription medications before the event when possible.
• ? Prepare first-aid supplies.
• ? Have flashlights or headlamps and spare batteries.
• ? Have a battery-powered or hand-crank weather radio.
• ? Fully charge cell phones, power banks, rechargeable lights and necessary medical equipment.
• ? Keep charging cables and vehicle chargers accessible.
• ? Keep reasonable emergency cash in useful denominations.
• ? Prepare hygiene and sanitation supplies.
• ? Have basic tools, work gloves, waterproof footwear and a fire extinguisher.
• ? Prepare pet food, water, medication, carriers, leashes and veterinary/vaccination records.
• ? Prepare baby, elder-care, disability and other household-specific supplies.
• ? If appropriate for the emergency, clean and fill bathtubs or large containers with water for sanitation and toilet flushing; keep drinking water separately in clean, food-safe containers.
• ? Test generators before the event and obtain fuel in approved containers before conditions become hazardous.
Evacuation / Go-Kit
• ? Identification and essential personal documents.
• ? Prescription medications and medical information.
• ? Insurance information and emergency contact numbers.
• ? Phones, chargers and power banks.
• ? Cash and payment cards.
• ? Food, water and essential clothing.
• ? Pet supplies and carriers/leashes.
• ? Irreplaceable small sentimental items if time and safety permit.
• ? Know more than one evacuation route and follow official evacuation instructions.
III. INSURANCE & PRE-LOSS DOCUMENTATION
(Have a drone or know someone who does take a detailed video of your roof condition. )
A. Document the Home's Pre-Storm Condition
• ? Make a continuous narrated video of the home's exterior from multiple angles.
• ? Photograph the roof from a safe vantage point, including visible shingles or roofing materials.
• ? Photograph gutters, downspouts, siding, brick, stucco, exterior paint, soffits, fascia, eaves, chimneys, vents and flashing.
• ? Photograph windows, screens, shutters, exterior doors and garage doors.
• ? Photograph HVAC units, generators and permanently installed exterior equipment.
• ? Photograph fences, gates, retaining walls, porches, patios, decks, balconies, driveways and walkways.
• ? Photograph pools, pumps, sheds, detached garages, outbuildings, trees and landscaping.
• ? Video every interior room slowly, including walls, ceilings and floors.
• ? Open and document closets, cabinets, cupboards, drawers and storage areas.
• ? Photograph flooring, countertops, cabinetry, built-ins, appliances, furniture, electronics, artwork, jewelry, collections and other valuable contents.
• ? Photograph accessible attic, basement and crawlspace areas where safe.
• ? Capture model and serial numbers for major appliances and electronics.
• ? If safe shortly before the event, make one final dated/time-stamped video showing the property's condition immediately before the storm.
B. Create or Update a Home Inventory
• ? Record item description, manufacturer/brand, model and serial number where applicable.
• ? Record approximate purchase date, age and original cost when known.
• ? Keep receipts, invoices, appraisals and photographs for valuable property.
• ? Record current replacement cost for significant items where practical.
• ? Keep the inventory somewhere other than solely inside the home; maintain a secure cloud or off-site backup.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:42 pm to TutHillTiger
Preserve the Complete Insurance File
• ? Save the complete homeowners policy — not just the declarations page.
• ? Save the declarations page and every endorsement.
• ? Save separate flood, wind/hail, excess/umbrella and relevant auto policies.
• ? Record policy numbers, carrier claims numbers and agent/broker contact information.
• ? Save mortgage information and recent insurance correspondence.
• ? Save roofing invoices, warranties, contractor invoices and records of major improvements.
• ? Save prior claim documentation showing completed repairs.
• ? Keep secure electronic backups and appropriate waterproof/off-site copies.
D. Know the Coverage Before the Loss
• ? Verify dwelling and personal-property limits.
• ? Determine whether contents are covered at replacement cost or actual cash value.
• ? Review Additional Living Expense / Loss of Use coverage.
• ? Review ordinance-or-law coverage.
• ? Review special limits for jewelry, art, collectibles, electronics and business property.
• ? Check water-backup/sump-overflow coverage.
• ? Review roof limitations, cosmetic-damage provisions and matching limitations.
• ? Identify the ordinary deductible and any separate wind/hail, named-storm or hurricane deductible.
• ? If a deductible is percentage-based, calculate the actual dollar amount.
• ? Confirm whether separate flood insurance is in force; do not assume ordinary homeowners coverage includes flooding.
E. Protect Important Personal Documents
• ? Driver's licenses and other identification.
• ? Passports, birth certificates and Social Security information.
• ? Marriage records, deeds, mortgage documents and vehicle titles.
• ? Medical information and medication lists.
• ? Wills, trusts and powers of attorney.
• ? Important financial information and emergency contacts.
• ? Pet vaccination and medical records.
• ? Save the complete homeowners policy — not just the declarations page.
• ? Save the declarations page and every endorsement.
• ? Save separate flood, wind/hail, excess/umbrella and relevant auto policies.
• ? Record policy numbers, carrier claims numbers and agent/broker contact information.
• ? Save mortgage information and recent insurance correspondence.
• ? Save roofing invoices, warranties, contractor invoices and records of major improvements.
• ? Save prior claim documentation showing completed repairs.
• ? Keep secure electronic backups and appropriate waterproof/off-site copies.
D. Know the Coverage Before the Loss
• ? Verify dwelling and personal-property limits.
• ? Determine whether contents are covered at replacement cost or actual cash value.
• ? Review Additional Living Expense / Loss of Use coverage.
• ? Review ordinance-or-law coverage.
• ? Review special limits for jewelry, art, collectibles, electronics and business property.
• ? Check water-backup/sump-overflow coverage.
• ? Review roof limitations, cosmetic-damage provisions and matching limitations.
• ? Identify the ordinary deductible and any separate wind/hail, named-storm or hurricane deductible.
• ? If a deductible is percentage-based, calculate the actual dollar amount.
• ? Confirm whether separate flood insurance is in force; do not assume ordinary homeowners coverage includes flooding.
E. Protect Important Personal Documents
• ? Driver's licenses and other identification.
• ? Passports, birth certificates and Social Security information.
• ? Marriage records, deeds, mortgage documents and vehicle titles.
• ? Medical information and medication lists.
• ? Wills, trusts and powers of attorney.
• ? Important financial information and emergency contacts.
• ? Pet vaccination and medical records.
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:45 pm to TutHillTiger
IV. POST-STORM ACTIONS & CLAIM DOCUMENTATION
• ? Put personal safety first. Do not enter an unsafe structure or approach downed power lines, floodwater, unstable trees or other hazards.
• ? Follow official instructions concerning return, evacuation, utilities and drinking water.
• ? Before cleanup or repairs, photograph and video all damage extensively from wide, medium and close views.
• ? Photograph exterior elevations, roof damage visible from a safe location, windows, doors, siding, fences, trees and outbuildings.
• ? Photograph every damaged interior room, including ceilings, walls, flooring and contents.
• ? Document water lines, staining, debris patterns and other physical evidence before they are disturbed.
• ? Photograph damaged items and capture make, model and serial numbers where possible.
• ? Do not discard damaged property prematurely when it can safely be retained; follow insurer and governmental instructions concerning hazardous or perishable items.
• ? Take reasonable emergency steps to prevent additional damage when safe, but document the condition before temporary repairs whenever possible.
• ? Keep damaged materials or representative samples when appropriate and safe.
• ? Keep every receipt for emergency repairs, tarps, materials, cleanup, temporary housing, meals and other potentially covered expenses.
• ? Create a written chronology of the loss and all significant events.
• ? Record every communication with the insurer, adjusters, contractors and other claim participants, including date, time, name, company and substance of the communication.
• ? Keep copies of estimates, reports, photographs, videos, emails, letters and claim submissions.
• ? Back up all post-loss photographs, videos and documents to secure cloud or off-site storage.
• ? Compare post-storm photographs and video with the pre-storm documentation.
Core Documentation Rule:
BEFORE THE STORM: PHOTOGRAPH EVERYTHING. AFTER THE STORM: PHOTOGRAPH EVERYTHING AGAIN BEFORE CLEANUP OR DISPOSAL.
V. SUGGESTED DIGITAL CLAIM FILE:
• ? 01 — Insurance Policies
• ? 02 — Exterior Pre-Storm Photos
• ? 03 — Interior Pre-Storm Photos
• ? 04 — Pre-Storm Video Walkthrough
• ? 05 — Contents Inventory
• ? 06 — Receipts & Appraisals
• ? 07 — Roof & Home Repair History
• ? 08 — Vehicle Documentation
• ? 09 — Important Personal Documents
• ? 10 — Storm Information & Official Alerts
• ? 11 — Post-Storm Photos & Videos
• ? 12 — Repair Estimates & Invoices
• ? 13 — Insurer / Adjuster Communications
• ? 14 — Additional Living Expense Receipts. (Take picture put on phone file and into cloud)
Remember: Document each and every contact with insurance company or adjuster. Record every phone call and contact. Keep track of how long they are actually inspecting your property
Posted on 10/7/26 at 11:47 pm to TutHillTiger
And this is a great chance tomorrow to drone your roof, because I can promise you if you have to deal with State Farm they will fight you over every fricking square, and if it’s hail damaged you are fricked.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 12:13 am to RBTiger
Posted on 10/8/26 at 12:20 am to TutHillTiger
Those are all great lists. Not only for hurricane but year around storms anywhere in the country
Posted on 10/8/26 at 12:21 am to RBTiger
Thats a cool chart, love it has all the different models listed to see the differences
Posted on 10/8/26 at 12:23 am to OU Guy
Posted on 10/8/26 at 12:39 am to NorthEndZone
Latest hurricane model runs (max winds and lowest pressure at model increment just before landfall)
HMON - 110 mph and 962 mb at 7 PM Friday - Ft. Walton (peak of 945 mb and 135 mph)
HAFS-A - 67 mph and 986 mb at 1 AM Saturday - Dauphin Island (peak of 963 mb and 140 mph)
HAFS-B - 110 mph and 972 mb at 10 PM Friday - Gulf Shores (peak of 947 mb and 130 mph)
HWRF - 105 mph and 965 mb at 7 PM Friday - Gulf Shores (peak of 960 mb and 115 mph)
This is just one run and subject to change. 3 of these 4 models are strong Cat 2 at landfall except for the HAFS-A that weakens rapidly just before landfall.
HMON - 110 mph and 962 mb at 7 PM Friday - Ft. Walton (peak of 945 mb and 135 mph)
HAFS-A - 67 mph and 986 mb at 1 AM Saturday - Dauphin Island (peak of 963 mb and 140 mph)
HAFS-B - 110 mph and 972 mb at 10 PM Friday - Gulf Shores (peak of 947 mb and 130 mph)
HWRF - 105 mph and 965 mb at 7 PM Friday - Gulf Shores (peak of 960 mb and 115 mph)
This is just one run and subject to change. 3 of these 4 models are strong Cat 2 at landfall except for the HAFS-A that weakens rapidly just before landfall.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 1:01 am to MasterAbe1
quote:
If I’m not mistaken here, the shear is what is pushing this away from LA and towards the AL/FL coastline correct?
Sort of.
Id think of it more like shear is a consequence of whats pushing it toward Florida. All wind shear is, is a change in windspeed and/or direction with height. Hurricanes dont like that.
quote:
Is the shear coming off of a cold front? I’m asking for learning purposes so forgive my ignorance
Nevermind, cant see the image and Im not gonna upload myself.
Note the little u-shaped dip in the flow over Texas? That upper level low is bringing the shear and is a major player in the steering.
quote:
And with that, does that increase the chance or tornadoes on the east side of the storm?
Yes, this does increase the tornado risk and it will be transitioning extratropical as it comes onshore or at least very soon after.
Tends to be a recipe for a very active east and especially NE side, in terms of tornados.
This post was edited on 10/8/26 at 1:02 am
Posted on 10/8/26 at 1:36 am to Duke
quote:
Yes, this does increase the tornado risk and it will be transitioning extratropical as it comes onshore or at least very soon after.
Tends to be a recipe for a very active east and especially NE side, in terms of tornados.
With the forward motion of this thing storms/bands and any tornadoes are gonna be booking it, too. There won't be much lead time with them.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 4:07 am to LegendInMyMind
Looks like NHC is thinking rapid weakening just after landfall going by the cone showing an S symbol at 1 am Saturday.
This post was edited on 10/8/26 at 4:07 am
Posted on 10/8/26 at 4:47 am to antibarner
quote:
Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2026
Right after the previous advisory, Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft launched a dropsonde in the southwest quadrant of
the storm, finding a 150 m boundary layer average wind of 76 kt,
which was the basis for upgrading Isaias to a hurricane at 0330 UTC.
Since that time, a NOAA-P3 aircraft has taken over the in-situ
sampling of the hurricane, finding that Isaias continues to
intensify. The Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) swaths still indicate some
northward tilt with height, likely an impact of moderate westerly
vertical wind shear that continues to impinge on the circulation,
though the circulation is more aligned than in yesterday's mission.
The peak TDR winds were up to 80 kt on the 500 m level, and
experimental data that reduces the peak TDR winds to the 10 meter
level support a maximum sustained wind of 70 kt this advisory.
Aircraft fixes indicate that Isaias continues to maintain a
east-northeastward heading at 060/8 kt. The most critical steering
feature is a subtropical ridge centered east of the Bahamas that is
building westward, leading to an enhancement of environmental
southerly flow over the eastern Gulf. At the same time, a mid-level
trough stretched across the northern Gulf coast will be reinforced
by another impulse digging in from the Rocky Mountains, leading to a
more amplified short-wave over east Texas. The net effect of these
synoptic features should result in Isaias making a turn to the
northeast and the north over the next 24-48 h. The guidance this
cycle has not changed appreciably since the previous cycle, and
there continue to be across-track differences between the further
west physics-based models, and further east AI/Machine
Learning-based models. The NHC track forecast remains very close to
the prior one, and continues to lead more on the Google DeepMind
ensemble mean (GDMI) and HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA)
track aids, which have been our best performing track guidance this
year. As mentioned previously, after Isaias moves inland, the
guidance is showing a more subtle westward shift as Isaias is
captured by the short wave trough to its west, leading in the
formation of a potent cutoff low over the Tennessee valley as the
tropical cyclone becomes post-tropical.
The intensity forecast continues to be somewhat tricky. Isaias has
been trying to become better vertically aligned despite dealing with
around 20 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and an eyewall keeps
coming and going in aircraft fixes. Other environmental factors (30
C sea-surface temperatures, sufficient deep-layer moisture) are
quite favorable. Because the shear is not forecast to increase
appreciably for the next 24 h, and because the hurricane has been
intensifying despite the shear, significant intensification is still
shown in the short-term, making Isaias just shy of major hurricane
intensity in 24 h. This part of the intensity forecast is on the
higher end of the guidance, close to the HCCA and GDMI intensity
aids. In the final 12-24 h before Isaias makes landfall on the north
Gulf coast, vertical wind shear ramps up to 40-50 kt, and this will
likely impart some weakening. However, at the same time, the
hurricane's wind field may become broader and more asymmetric as it
begins to interact with the short-wave trough capturing it from the
west. Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane
through landfall, and gusty winds are expected well inland after
landfall given the anticipated expansion of the wind field and
accelerating forward speed of the storm.
Posted on 10/8/26 at 4:57 am to TutHillTiger
My insurance covered our roof from hail damage. Sorry you were not.
It looks like a lot of wind and rain for South Georgia.
Later year storms can be rough.
It looks like a lot of wind and rain for South Georgia.
Later year storms can be rough.
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