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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:21 am to rds dc
quote:
rds dc
Do you think that leftward shite continues or do you think it's temporary? Is the ridge just stronger and bigger than originally thought or something?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:26 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Is the ridge just stronger and bigger than originally thought or something?
It's not that it's stronger, it's just that it's getting pushed south and west by a couple of troughs that develop over the period.. the one currently over the northeast, and then one that develops over the great lakes in ~3 days
the window for this thing to stay in the atlantic is quickly closing
This post was edited on 8/26/15 at 9:27 am
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:34 am to baytiger
here's what i'm thinking, if it stays on its EXACT path, its coming straight for SELA. But you know it doesn't stay on path so its gotta hit somewhere else right?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:38 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Do you think that leftward shite continues or do you think it's temporary?
Hard to say without caveating this sentence to death
Certainly more uncertainty than normal in the D3 to 5 range. Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:38 am to Chad504boy
the plot that rds just posted shows that the extrapolated path puts it in mexico (black triangle line)
sorry Chad
sorry Chad
This post was edited on 8/26/15 at 9:40 am
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:41 am to baytiger
quote:
the plot that rds just posted shows that the extrapolated path puts it in mexico (black triangle line)
#blacklinesdon'tmatter
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:48 am to Chad504boy
Is it gonna eff up the first game or what?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:49 am to N2cars
vette, when i know something, you'll know something.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:49 am to N2cars
honestly I've been in the "never making it to the Gulf" camp since Danny, but this one is starting to concern me.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:53 am to musick
ive got a fight out of new orleans on monday morning to miami. supposed to be there 2 nights. 
:banghead:
:banghead:Posted on 8/26/15 at 9:56 am to baytiger
quote:
the window for this thing to stay in the atlantic is quickly closing
I tend to agree, things started pointing towards this yesterday. The WC trough and any kickers that come out ahead of it will play a big role in the evolution of the ridging over the top of Erika. A lot of wild cards at this point.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:21 am to Chad504boy
I'll drive the RV to BR in a "1", but a 2 is iffy.
A 3 is out if the question.
Probably.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:25 am to musick
Is there a way to plot a potential timeline this far out?
Like, if was gonna be in the GOM it would be there by Saturday or whatever?
You guys may have done this already...
Like, if was gonna be in the GOM it would be there by Saturday or whatever?
You guys may have done this already...
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:45 am to Chad504boy
Should it enter the GOM, whats the feeling on gaining strength?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:51 am to CharlesLSU
most of those lines have it going pretty well to the east of us.... when is this supposed to be around the coast?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 10:56 am to CharlesLSU
it's gonna have a hard time gaining strength anywhere... between terrain and shear. The GOM is pretty moist right now but the trough projected over the eastern US will render it pretty inhospitable for development... and it's gotta plow through Hispaniola and Cuba to even get there in the first place.
The best place for it to develop right now is over the Bahamas but it looks more and more like the steering flow just isn't going to let it get there.
The best place for it to develop right now is over the Bahamas but it looks more and more like the steering flow just isn't going to let it get there.
Posted on 8/26/15 at 11:00 am to baytiger
So, in your opinion, do you see a hurricane landfall in SoFL?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 11:00 am to CharlesLSU
does this front not have any effect?
Posted on 8/26/15 at 11:05 am to Motorboat
that front won't be there in 5 days when Erika is coming in.. but its remnants will help steer her north. The exact location of the feature will determine where she turns.
As for hurricanes in Florida... I'm not sure yet. I can say pretty confidently that I don't think this will be a major hurricane threatening Florida... especially with the Bahamas closing off.. and honestly I'm not even sure it will be a hurricane by then. But there's so much disagreement in the models past 48 hours that it's impossible to nail anything down.
As for hurricanes in Florida... I'm not sure yet. I can say pretty confidently that I don't think this will be a major hurricane threatening Florida... especially with the Bahamas closing off.. and honestly I'm not even sure it will be a hurricane by then. But there's so much disagreement in the models past 48 hours that it's impossible to nail anything down.
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