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Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:23 pm to GEAUXmedic
Geaux
That Tor prob loop is pretty fast and I can't find that product on Tropical Tidbits.
But is it showing the Tor probability decreasing pretty significantly as the boundary approaches sela?
That Tor prob loop is pretty fast and I can't find that product on Tropical Tidbits.
But is it showing the Tor probability decreasing pretty significantly as the boundary approaches sela?
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:27 pm to tgrgrd00
Tornados of any significance will be in front of the frontal squall line. Do wish the gif was a little slower to catch that evolution.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:27 pm to Tester1216
quote:quote:
I’m glad I’m not where this is gonna meet the Gulf air coming up.
Where exactly will this happen?
I'm afraid it'll be right where I am by Alexandria
ETA: and I was in NOLA for that derecho event that knocked the train off the Huey P.
that was a nasty day
This post was edited on 10/31/18 at 9:29 pm
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:28 pm to rt3
I won't be sleeping tonight
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:30 pm to Tester1216
quote:
Where exactly will this happen?
It already did, even in Scoop's part of Louisiana. The whole line is a result of the boundry between the cold air behind the front and the warm air in front of it.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:30 pm to Tester1216
quote:
I won't be sleeping tonight
what's keeping me up is that the Pelicans are about to play Golden State
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:31 pm to Tester1216
quote:
I won't be sleeping tonight
where are you at? city?
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:31 pm to Duke
Will it mix all together and just go away?
I'm sorta being serious.
I'm sorta being serious.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:31 pm to LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:32 pm to genuineLSUtiger
Dont really have an edge, I love bad weather, I love to track it, talk about it, and observe it. I was just posting a bit of school closure/schedule modification
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:32 pm to Duke
Looks like the latest HRRR model indicates supercell development around Greater BR at 2-3 AM
This post was edited on 10/31/18 at 9:34 pm
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:33 pm to Tester1216
me too. morning commute will be delayed until this thing passes
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:34 pm to Tester1216
quote:
Will it mix all together and just go away?
Plenty of both to go around. It'll lose the strong tap out of the gulf once the low pulls off to the NE over the next day. A couple of severe bouts is the price we pay to cool off around here.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:35 pm to Duke
Here you go:
Look at those supercells ahead of the line. See how they match up with the higher STP values? That's what we're worried about. Interestingly when this line consolidates is important. We could see squall line tornadoes if it waits to consolidate til after it passes, as shown below. If it consolidates earlier, before it reaches here, we would likely see a high speed straight line wind event, which the NWS points out would be similar to April 27th, 2015.
Look at those supercells ahead of the line. See how they match up with the higher STP values? That's what we're worried about. Interestingly when this line consolidates is important. We could see squall line tornadoes if it waits to consolidate til after it passes, as shown below. If it consolidates earlier, before it reaches here, we would likely see a high speed straight line wind event, which the NWS points out would be similar to April 27th, 2015.
This post was edited on 10/31/18 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:38 pm to GEAUXmedic
I used this site that same April 2015. If I recall it worked fairly well.LINK
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:38 pm to Duke
quote:
A couple of severe bouts is the price we pay to cool off around here.
the Christmas Day cold front a few years ago with the tornado warnings all day was nuts
This post was edited on 10/31/18 at 9:39 pm
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:38 pm to lsugolfredman
Sounding certainly potent enough to get that spinning, but that should be quickly getting absorbed by the main line by that point at least.
Also, thanks Medic.
Posted on 10/31/18 at 9:41 pm to GEAUXmedic
Maybe it's the model overlay or my amateur eyes but I sure don't like when that line segment looks like it goes more cellular vs linear between Baton Rouge and Hammond. IMO that would be something to watch and possibly lead toward more tornadic activity vs straight line wind.
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