To Everyone Who is "Done" with the NFL: Nobody Cares

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With less than a week to go before the 2020 NFL season kicks off in an uncharacteristically subdued Arrowhead Stadium, the ritual of selling off the in-game commercial inventory is arguably the only aspect of the fall TV marketplace that might be characterized as “normal.”

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Dollar volume is steady, the average unit costs are about where they were a year ago, and the amount of inventory still available is in keeping with last fall’s levels. Depending on the package and the network, in-game sellout levels are hovering between 80% and 85%; spots that aren’t claimed before the season’s first 11-hour Sunday juggernaut gets underway on Sept. 13 will simply be reserved for scatter, ad industry argot for time sold closer to the live airdate.

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Should the NFL’s luck and testing protocols hold, CBS, NBC, Fox and ESPN can expect to rake in a combined $3.7 billion in ad sales revenue this season, per SMI estimates. When allowances for make-goods were factored in, the average unit cost for a half-minute of time across the four networks last season worked out to around $424,000. At this stage in the game, pricing and dollar volume are on par with the analogous period in 2019.

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That the NFL’s most steadfast backers weren’t particularly vulnerable to the dictates of this spring’s lockdown economy goes a long way toward explaining why their in-game spend is at 2019 levels. As America put itself on hold, Amazon’s delivery and video services flourished, and the consumer packaged goods giant P&G saw its stateside sales jump 19% in the most recent quarter.

Procter, which traffics in products that everyone uses—deodorant, dish soap, toilet paper—also boasts an arsenal of household cleaning brands. The company was practically designed to withstand a pandemic, a fact that isn’t lost on network ad sales bosses. TV’s perennial top spender last year dumped $781 million into broadcasters’ coffers, while placing another $933 million on ad-supported cable nets.

Buyers say that spend by the FAANG set (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) has more than offset the absence of movie studio dollars. The NFL’s broadcast partners are also enjoying a surge of activity, care of the top insurance companies. Every few years, the Geicos, Progressives and State Farms go to the mattresses in an all-out marketing war, and that recurring battle for market share always leaves the networks flush. In a time of head-spinning uncertainty, the people who wield the actuarial tables are going all-in on what may be the only safe bet on the table.

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