re: The CDC has quietly updated survival rates if infected with covid

But Latoya and her know it all ER doctor told us 7 in 100 WILL DIE if we go to a party

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Based on your numbers I think it’s fair to say:

If you are under 50 it’s basically the flu

If you are 65+ it’s much worse than the flu

What percentage of the workforce is over 65? Barely any

Why aren’t we fully back to work?

protecting everyone over 65 and letting everyone else build herd immunity was the right strategy. That could have been done in 2-3 months and is probably exactly what happened in Sweden.

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I agree. I've been anti-shutdown, pro-sensible-precautions since day 1.

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The actual covid deaths are very, very close to what is reported (200k give or take). I base this on the all-cause total deaths for the year, which are more than 200k above expected.

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Directly from LDH

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Currently, all deaths in individuals with COVID positive lab results are being counted, this may include individuals with pre-existing conditions or individuals ultimately determined to have another cause of death.

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Oh the huge manatee!!!!!

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Currently, all deaths in individuals with COVID positive lab results are being counted, this may include individuals with pre-existing conditions or individuals ultimately determined to have another cause of death.

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Yes I understand.

Do you know about and understand the all-cause death data? If you do, just how many of the excess deaths do you think can or will be attributed to something else?

Fauci said today on capital hill that he doesn’t support shut downs. Never did after the initial flattening. Democrats are doing it hoping it will help them with the election, and these aholes have the nerve to ask for bail out money.

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My mom had COVID. about 2 months ago and was really sick for a little over 2 weeks. She is in her early 70s, but it good health, however; she has not completely recovered. She gets fatigue much faster and still doesn't have the energy she had before having COVID.

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It’s been 1.5-2 months. Your exact same post could be written for the majority of respiratory viruses for a woman in her 70s. Pneumonia kicks the shite out of people. People with bad flu take often take quite awhile to recover to the prior level of cardio-respiratory fitness. Viruses can kick the asses of older people. See how she feels as some more time passes as that really isn’t a long term outcome.

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Do you know about and understand the all-cause death data? If you do, just how many of the excess deaths do you think can or will be attributed to something else?

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Just to play devil’s advocate on the all-cause data, it’s not quite as conclusive as it’s made out to be.

For starters, deaths have been trending upward for years due to the aging baby boomers and general population growth. If I remember right, the average over the past 5 years ago is about 14k increase per year. So obviously not enough to explain a 200k spike.

However, we should expect a spike at some point as more of the baby boomers reach their life expectancy - I wouldn’t expect it to be linear.

Lastly, the short-term excess mortality leaves out a pretty big piece of the story, which is that many of the people who did die of COVID were likely to die soon anyway. So if you look at excess mortality over a short term (say, April-August) it might look a lot worse than if you look at it over a longer term (say, April 2020-April 2021). I would argue that this is meaningful, because if (hypothetically) most of these deaths only shortened lives by <6 months, that’s a lot different than 6 years.

Anyhow, big picture I think the all-cause data makes it pretty clear that we have, in fact, seen a lot of COVID deaths. But I also think it’s possible that a chunk of those excess deaths can be explained by demographics. I don’t know whether that’s 10%, 20%, whatever. But it’s probably not zero.