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2
Posted on 9/26/23 at 11:10 am to secfballfan
quote:
Not only was it foreseeable, it was inevitable. Really? So you saw Covid and its impact in 20202 coming? You must be VERY rich now
Technology had already impacted how work was getting done and the need for office space. Covid just accelerated the shift.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 11:21 am to XenScott
quote:
Amazing that my wife can't find another office space in Pensacola.
That is just a weird market. It took us forever to find what we needed downtown in Pensacola. Still wasn't a perfect fit but had to make do after looking for a couple of years. Finally made the move in fall 2022 (about a year ago).
Posted on 9/26/23 at 11:21 am to generalgator87
quote:
My guess is that any residential crash will be more localized then 2008 unless there is a systemic breakdown for the financial system and basically no bank will lend. You would see major corporate defaults and bankruptcies and tons of job loss for that to happen. No one should be rooting that on.
2008 was a nationwide crash, but there have been many other housing recessions that have tended to hurt some regions worse than others. 2008 also had the issue of a lot more inventory available, so the crash was deeper and more long lasting.
With the amount of migration going on these days, places in the sunbelt are more likely to see a major crash then somewhere like San Francisco or Chicago.
If there is a major crash/recession/depression, we would definitely see a lowering of interest rates. Trying to time that or predict where rates would end up would be a fools errand.
2008 was Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid induced. That's why it was nationwide.
It's nosomuch about that this time so, I agree, it's far more regional .... specifically blue states are suffering, red states are thriving.
Yet no one ever says it out loud.
Also, cities, now more than ever, are cesspools of disease and crime.
70% of the world's population now lives in cities.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 11:26 am to Buryl
quote:
Now the 2008 Crises- 100% on the banks and AIG et al.
Uh, not really... banks et al were being forced to make loans to uncreditworthy borrowers who were allowed to make up income requirements on the spot and only needed a signed letter from the borrower attesting to that income.... driven by Democrat policy.
The "blame the banks" fallacy doesn't get to the root cause.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 11:48 am to scrooster
Agreed on the urban areas in blue states being at more risk. Also, had a typo in my post. I think the sunbelt (Texas, Florida, Carolinas, Tennessee) are less likely to see a major crash.
This post was edited on 9/26/23 at 11:49 am
Posted on 9/26/23 at 12:12 pm to generalgator87
thanks joe
Posted on 9/26/23 at 12:12 pm to stout
I work in commercial property maintenance and I’m in these buildings in downtown Dallas and throughout the metroplex daily.
Buildings were empty before the Wuhan. It was kind of a wild thing to see constantly when I was new 6 years ago.
The offices here are back to how they were pre-Wuhan in terms of people/cars imo, but it hasn’t changed much.
Buildings were empty before the Wuhan. It was kind of a wild thing to see constantly when I was new 6 years ago.
The offices here are back to how they were pre-Wuhan in terms of people/cars imo, but it hasn’t changed much.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 12:54 pm to Lsupimp
quote:
I had a conversation with a guy who walked me through just the plumbing challenges involved in a “ repurpose” from large commercial to residential units and I understand now why it makes sense to just bring out the wrecking ball
Communal shitters like the Romans had are back baby!
Posted on 9/26/23 at 1:05 pm to XenScott
quote:
Amazing that my wife can't find another office space in Pensacola
Does she operate massage parlors? Tell her make house calls, she'd save money on rent.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 1:14 pm to wadewilson
quote:
Solution: everybody else has to work in office 3 days a week. Him? He has to be in office 6 days a week
The ultimate irony. The guy pushing for back in the office is in a fully remote position.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 1:16 pm to BluegrassBelle
Home a equity up another .6% from case shiller
They have it heading toward 6% for the year
Others almots 8%
They have it heading toward 6% for the year
Others almots 8%
Posted on 9/26/23 at 1:21 pm to secfballfan
quote:
Really? So you saw Covid and its impact in 20202 coming? You must be VERY rich now
I never said it was inevitable in 2020; I said it was inevitable, period.
After 2008 kicked my arse, I DID take reasonable steps to prepare myself for a variety of situations. I had an emergency fund, no crazy debt, lived within means, etc. Personal responsibility and all. So if commercial real estate owners wanted to finance their holdings through debt, that's on them. They took the risks, if it was a bad call, that's on them.
Everyone's a conservative until it's THEIR arse on the chopping block.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 1:35 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
I agree with you. This board is very negative now.
The Brittany Spears video post really has people despondent today.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 1:42 pm to Saintsisit
quote:
Amazing that my wife can't find another office space in Pensacola
Does she operate massage parlors? Tell her make house calls, she'd save money on rent.
She's actually a psychotherapist that specializes in trauma induced behaviors in children and teens, but you be you.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 8:43 pm to ATLTiger7
You’re still seeing new development in Atlanta, Midtown especially, because there’s demand from large corporate users want to occupy the latest and greatest.
A ton of the A/B office product is being made obsolete because tenants are either looking to downsize and move to a more modern building, or they think that by relocating to a trophy asset with all of the amenities is going to help with employee retention as they bring people back in.
Hell, Invesco just left an only 15 year old building to lease 300,000sf at Midtown Union a couple blocks away.
A ton of the A/B office product is being made obsolete because tenants are either looking to downsize and move to a more modern building, or they think that by relocating to a trophy asset with all of the amenities is going to help with employee retention as they bring people back in.
Hell, Invesco just left an only 15 year old building to lease 300,000sf at Midtown Union a couple blocks away.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 9:24 pm to stout
This topic disproves much of what is spewed to us re: climate change.
So many companies telling us we need to change XYZ for climate reasons but then tell us we need to commute every day back to office.
All you need to do is follow the money. That’s why companies are demanding people return to office.
So many companies telling us we need to change XYZ for climate reasons but then tell us we need to commute every day back to office.
All you need to do is follow the money. That’s why companies are demanding people return to office.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 9:31 pm to lnomm34
quote:
They remind me how crappy life is and how it really isn't worth living. Thanks for making sure the O-T stays a depressing shithole.
You could still be living in Laurel, bro.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 9:37 pm to stout
So who gets hit the hardest from the fallout? REIT’s, banks, hedge funds, pensions?
Read one of the articles saying “WeWork” was a major tenet. They are basically just subleasing office space, while fancying themselves as a tech company.
Read one of the articles saying “WeWork” was a major tenet. They are basically just subleasing office space, while fancying themselves as a tech company.
Posted on 9/26/23 at 9:41 pm to XenScott
quote:
Amazing that my wife can't find another office space in Pensacola.
I bet she can in San Francisco. Or Los Angeles. Or NYC. Or Chicago. Or Philly. Or... well, you get the point.
The real estate picture changes the more local you get. Most of the country isn't Florida, nor Texas, nor Tennessee. Trying to say "that sounds like bullshite because of my personal anecdote which comes from a fairly ideal environment" doesn't come across as smart nor pithy, but ignorantly arrogant.
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