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Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:03 am to BallsEleven
Considering this thing isn’t even well defined, the NHC discussion is not ideal.
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:03 am to Ed Osteen
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:03 am to DVinBR
quote:
what kind of H shifts can we expect here?
This is the real question. Hopefully to Mississippi
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:04 am to dukke v
quote:
you must really have it out for me. Why???? I have no clue…..
just shut the frick up and we are good
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:04 am to DVinBR
quote:
what kind of H shifts can we expect here?
Hopefully more lines to the right!
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:04 am to maisweh
As long as we’re talking about H shifts and not M shifts that’s a good thing.
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:05 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Sorry I'm late to the party but has stocking up on titty juice been mentioned yet?
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:06 am to fatboydave
quote:
This track should bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday, and have the center approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, however the average NHC track forecast error at day 4 is around 175 miles, so users should not focus on the details of the long range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined. The NHC track is near the various consensus model aids and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean.
The not so ideal part…
quote:
The depression will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and could approach hurricane strength as it passes near or over western Cuba. Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend.
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:07 am to jcaz
quote:If it were up to me, I'd probably take a trip if it were forecast to hit Cat3 or higher trending towards BR. Problem is elderly family nearby who will not leave. Period. So, I'm stuck here for the duration.
3 or less I’m staying
Gas is stocked up, generators are primed, and I've got plenty of whiskey and bullets. And fresh boiled peanuts. Got those, too.
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:07 am to slackster
frick.
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:07 am to DomincDecoco
I will not…. I don’t know who you think you are and I don’t care. However I have a right to my talk about this storm just like everyone else in this thread… it looks like the storm is coming real close to where I live…. I have a perspective just like everyone else…. If you don’t like my posts ignore them….. 
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:08 am to slackster
A few of the Twitter mets were posting water temps / location of gulf stream and well this particular cone pretty much rides the stream into the hottest part of the gulf. Which I would tend to believe isnt "ideal."
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:08 am to slackster
The NHC does appear to be pretty confident this will become a strong hurricane. I really wonder if it’ll go to a 4 or even a 5 at some point. Laura would’ve been a 5 if she had five more hours over water. That bitch strengthened right up to landfall. I think Delta and Zeta did too.
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:10 am to slackster
Yeah that discussion sounded like they have more confidence than I expected.
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:10 am to rds dc
Looks almost exactly like Gustav track and intensity. As I recall Gustav made landfall at that same point at 110 mph as well, moving in the same exact direction. Would put BR metro on the dirty side just like what happened in ‘08.
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:11 am to dukke v
you soggy count....you think people wanna hear your blabbering?
quote:
Just imagine a 22 foot wall of water crashing ashore with 180 MPH winds… devestation would not be the correct word....
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:11 am to 50_Tiger
Now that we have a tropical depression, I would not be surprised to see hurricane and tropical storm watches go up along the Gulf Coast tonight or at least by tomorrow morning given the speed of the system.
This post was edited on 8/26/21 at 10:12 am
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:11 am to LSUJuice
When the NHC is expecting rapid intensification, I get VERY concerned.
Posted on 8/26/21 at 10:13 am to Roll Tide Ravens
They’ll be posted tomorrow afternoon or evening.
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