re: Storm Update:- Ida Moves Away - The Cleanup Begins...

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When is the next update?

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The next update with a new cone is at 10pm CT.

Cat 4

Update? Anyone?

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What’s the predicted category it will make landfall as?

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Category 4, 130mph sustained winds at landfall is the forecast.

Prediction on sustained winds in BR ?

From Nick Mikulas. As I alluded to in my last post, this is a communication nightmare. My forecast zone that I cover is Central Louisiana, from the Texas border to the Mississippi border, and from roughly just north of I 10 to just south of I 20. From the northwest corner to the southeast corner of my self imposed coverage area, conditions will range from little to no rain, and a nice breeze, to 8+ inches of rain, and wind gusts up to 90 mph. There will be people that think this was a missed forecast because they hear category 4 hurricane hitting Louisiana, and expect Laura. While this has the potential to bring similar conditions to Laura, it will be in a different corridor of Louisiana, and Mississippi. Of course, I could swing and miss on a forecast. It happens. But models are tightly clustered on a landfall between Grand Isle and Morgan City, with a path just west of Baton Rouge, and then very close to the Mississippi River. I’ve been studying hurricanes that have taken similar paths to see what local impacts will be, and here is what this means, parish by parish. This storm won’t be the same, but the storms I looked at for rainfall distribution, and wind were Gustav, Laura, Betsy, and Andrew. Don’t think that those names mean you’ll see a similar outcome, though the closest comp I see is Betsy. This was just so I could see how the western side did in a major hurricane. All of that went into my slightly updated evening forecast.

Rapides… Wind gusts 50-65 mph 2-6 inches of rain with higher totals in the eastern side of the parish. Scattered power outages.
Avoyelles… Wind gusts 60-80 mph, 5-10 inches of rain, with widespread power outages.
Vernon… Wind gusts 30-45 mph, with 0-2 inches of rain. Parts of Vernon parish could stay dry. Isolated power outages possible in the eastern part of the parish.
Grant… Wind gusts 40-60 mph, with 1-5 inches of rain. Scattered power outages, especially in the eastern part of the parish.
Sabine… Wind gusts 30-40 mph, 0-2 inches of rain, and I think you keep power.
Natchitoches… Wind gusts of 35-50 mph, 0-2 inches of rain, with isolated power outages possible in the southeastern part of the parish.
Winn… Wind gusts of 35-55 mph, with 1-4 inches of rain. Isolated power outages are possible.
LaSalle… Wind gusts of 45-60 mph, with 3-6 inches of rain. Scattered power outages are possible.
Catahoula… Wind gusts of 50-65 mph, with 5-8 inches of rain possible. Scattered power outages likely.
Concordia… Wind gusts of 55-70 mph, with 5-10 inches of rain possible. Scattered to widespread power outages likely.
Beauregard… Wind gusts of 30-45 mph, with 0-2 inches of rain possible. Isolated power outages possible in the eastern part of the parish. Western parts of the parish could stay mainly dry.
Allen… Wind gusts of 45-55 mph, with 1-4 inches of rain likely. Isolated to scattered power outages are possible, with the eastern part of the parish seeing a better chance of losing power.
Evangeline… Wind gusts of 55-65 mph with 3-6 inches of rain. Scattered power outages likely.
St. Landry… Wind gusts of 65-90 mph, with 5-10 inches of rain. Widespread power outages likely, with the worst of that happening in the eastern part of the parish.
Jackson Parish… Wind gusts 30-45 mph with 1-3 inches of rain. Power outages look pretty unlikely.
Caldwell Parish… Wind gusts 35-50 mph with 2-5 inches of rain. Isolated power outages possible.

I expanded the wind range a bit in some areas, and bumped it up just a hair in some spots. What I really learned from studying past hurricanes was the rain and wind impacts typically stretch about 80-100 miles west of the center. They of course extend much further to the east. So a path from around Baton Rouge to Natchez puts the eastern 2/3 of the area under the gun for moderate to significant impacts. If I had to compare this storm to a previous hurricane, the closest analog I find is Hurricane Betsy in 1965. Ida should be of similar strength, but might track just a tick east of Betsy. So if you remember Betsy, feel free to share where you were, and what it was like. That’s not a guarantee we will see the same thing, but it’s a good starting point on the potential of Ida. I’ll be watching things closely, but plan on sleeping like a normal person tonight. As best I can of course. I do apologize that I can’t answer tons of questions. I try to answer most of them in these insanely long posts. Outer bands could start to impact that area by Sunday afternoon, with the main show arriving Sunday evening into early Monday. By Monday afternoon, Ida will be out of the area. I’ll update things after the 10:00 PM NHC update.

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It sucks, because you're rolling the dice on a wobble between getting the meat of the eyewall or not but the traffic nightmare I'm not sure is worth it.

Well, assuming you're in a sturdy structure and not flood prone (and I mean relative to your part of town).

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Yep - sturdy house, no trees, generator, etc

Wife is antsy, but the eastward jog (and the doom tweet from the NWS) cranked her anxiety.

shite I bet you could leave at 6am tomorrow and be fine.

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Considering this fricker can’t even spell loss right