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Started By
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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:28 pm to TigerstuckinMS
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:28 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
Sometime around when she moves onto her fourth strange cock.
Had to be done.
Soooo, will she have trouble getting to and from said cock?
0
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:28 pm to GEAUXmedic
I feel that Isaac from 2012 is a decent analog for 99L. Maybe not just looked at the path it went through the eastern/central Caribbean sea before moving northwestward going through the Florida Straits then ultimately coming here. Not saying it will hit Louisiana at all just that they had it hitting Florida big bend area before moving more west through time
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:28 pm to Chad504boy
I'm done with this thread for a while.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:29 pm to baytiger
quote:
you're not crazy. there's no rotation yet. Recon confirmed and got out of there a couple hours ago.
What kind of effect does that have on models that initialized with a WNW track already?
Obviously not all suggested that immediately, but most seemed to suggest that movement very soon if not already.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:30 pm to MightyYat
quote:
My wife is leaving for a work conference in Disney World next Tuesday. What's the timeline for all of this shite?
If the models are correct (doubtful this far out) then the storm will already have passed Orlando. Going with her and leaving a day earlier would be the better option.
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:30 pm to slackster
Still don't feel confident on any models until we have a well defined circulation.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:31 pm to GEAUXmedic
Screw Isaac 2012. We took 4 feet of water in our place in Myrtle Grove.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:32 pm to slackster
Models tend to get better once they have a discrete low to initialize. This system does not yet.. but there is kind of a wnw trend to the vorticity max. Once the low forms it's easier to ascertain the initial motion and the 2-3 paths will generally get better.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:34 pm to baytiger
baytiger..be real with me here. It's happening, isn't it?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:36 pm to baytiger
quote:
Models tend to get better once they have a discrete low to initialize. This system does not yet.. but there is kind of a wnw trend to the vorticity max. Once the low forms it's easier to ascertain the initial motion and the 2-3 paths will generally get better.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:37 pm to Theboot32
quote:Harambe*
so this will be Hermine if it continues correct?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:38 pm to slackster
quote:
Look at the size of Gaston on that model. Yeesh.
Gaston has to be insanely large right? Thankfully that one looks to be a fish storm so I have no conscience issues singing that Gaston song from Beauty and the Beast...
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:41 pm to VermilionTiger
quote:sure looks like the record gulf hurricane drought is coming to an end. I'm not going to attempt to forecast beyond that yet but it doesn't look great for the northern gulf coast.
baytiger..be real with me here. It's happening, isn't it?
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:45 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
GEAUXmedic
quote:
Still don't feel confident on any models until we have a well defined circulation.
Agree. From Birmingham's James Spann:
INVEST 99L: This is the one that will produce weeping and gnashing of teeth over the next 5 to 7 days. Let’s make some important points about this wave, which is nearing the Leeward Islands this afternoon:
*There is a chance this won’t develop at all due to dry air and shear. Unlikely, but a chance.
*A hurricane hunter was in the system today, and could not find a closed circulation. This isn’t even a tropical depression now, and until it gets it’s act together, forecasting future positions and intensity is very challenging.
*Tropical models are tightly clustered; pushing the system to the Bahamas in five days.
*Beyond that, there is little agreement in global models concerning the long term destination. The 12Z GFS (American) model basically dissipates the system around the Bahamas, with no threat to the U.S. However, the 12Z ECMWF (European) model moves it across the Florida Peninsula, and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a landfall near Gulf Shores next Tuesday night. Understand that run of the Euro is an outlier; taking the ensemble approach, a more likely track is over South Florida, with a turn to the north well east of Alabama.
*Nobody, and I mean nobody knows the ultimate destination and intensity of this, IF it develops at all. We all just need to pay attention, and forecast confidence will grow in coming days.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:51 pm to thebhamdawgfan
quote:
Birmingham's James Spann
This guy is tGoat. If he rolls his sleeves up, it's time to bail
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:51 pm to thebhamdawgfan
quote:
Nobody, and I mean nobody knows the ultimate destination and intensity of this, IF it develops at all.
Way to throw a damper on all this building tropical hysteria
The next storm that is called Hermione will produce some cool memes though
This post was edited on 8/23/16 at 3:53 pm
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:53 pm to thebhamdawgfan
quote:
From Birmingham's James Spann
That is how you do it. Hit on the potentially dire scenarios but keep them in the proper context.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:54 pm to fatboydave
quote:Harambe*
The next storm that is called Hermione will produce some cool memes though
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:56 pm to thebhamdawgfan
that seems pretty reasonable from Spann, but honestly I just don't see how this system doesn't develop. Shear is pretty light and there's enough moisture ahead.
Posted on 8/23/16 at 3:59 pm to baytiger
Spann is the man. He's one of the best communicators out there, and he fights for integrity in meteorology.
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