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re: Storm Tracking Thread: Post Tropical Storm Hermine

Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:56 pm to
Posted by tke857
Member since Jan 2012
12195 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:56 pm to
quote:

Still not a time to panic, but I wouldn't get into "coast is clear" mode yet either. Katrina was a hurricane and they missed badly on it's track when it was a few days ahead of where invest is now



we fricked
Posted by LSU2001
Cut Off, La.
Member since Nov 2007
2388 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:58 pm to
I said early this morning that we will see models flip flopping back and forth until we are at or near 100 hours from landfall. Even then there is a lot of uncertainty. Everybody needs to relax and watch the trend not a single run of any model. Hell, when Katrina hit S. Fla nobody nor no model predicted her movement which ended up being south of due west. Watch, wait and with the possibility of a cane in the gulf start thinking about what preps you need if and when it's time
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126962 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

especially Jim Cantore - are jizzing in their pants right now.
He's probably already practicing standing on a beach holding the microphone in one hand and holding down his baseball cap with the other hand while leaning into the wind.
Posted by Tigerdew
The Garden District of Da' Parish
Member since Dec 2003
13594 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

One thing is for certain - the Weather Channel people, especially Jim Cantore - are jizzing in their pants right now. They've been waiting all summer for this.


It's been relatively quiet for 9 years now. I'm sure Cantore is in a closet somewhere blasting Metallica as we speak getting ready to ruin someone's day when he rolls up in his van.
Posted by Wimp Lo
My nipples look like Milk Duds
Member since Aug 2016
4548 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 1:59 pm to
When I get home I'll link them from my computer, but these were actual mets.
Posted by beebefootballfan
Member since Mar 2011
19017 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:00 pm to
Next Euro run will slam this thing into Brownsville, TX at the rate is going.
This post was edited on 8/24/16 at 2:01 pm
Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11097 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

One thing is for certain - the Weather Channel people, especially Jim Cantore - are jizzing in their pants right now.


Posted by tke857
Member since Jan 2012
12195 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

He's probably already practicing standing on a beach holding the microphone in one hand and holding down his baseball cap with the other hand while leaning into the wind.



I bet they have a simulation for that at their HQ. Big 'ol fan and fake rain.
Posted by Wimp Lo
My nipples look like Milk Duds
Member since Aug 2016
4548 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

Euro run will slam this thing into Brownsville, TX at the rate is going.




And then it'll be declared king again!
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:01 pm to
I'm fairly certain every possible location on the gulf coast will be in the crosshairs by the time they know where it's going for sure...

Why's the models pulling it so close to Florida now? Did something develop in the models? I can't look at them on my phone right now due to shitty service.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19808 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

When I get home I'll link them from my computer, but these were actual mets


I believe you. See it all the time with every possible wx setup, not just hurricanes.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84755 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

It's precisely why I laugh at people that hold on so tight to a specific model. Yeah the GFS has been bad, but the euro now gets pretty close to what it's been doing for a few runs. Now the euro is garbage according to some.


To be fair, you've got people on the other end of the spectrum that continuously deride the accuracy of models this far out while they're focused on south Louisiana, yet as soon as a model has a change in either direction and/or suggests the storm will fizzle out, they champion the run as an "I told you so" moment.
Posted by baytiger
Boston
Member since Dec 2007
46978 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:05 pm to
quote:


Why's the models pulling it so close to Florida now? Did something develop in the models? I can't look at them on my phone right now due to shitty service.



the latest Euro run has the ridge over the eastern US quickly breaking down after the system passes over Florida, steering it along the inside of the peninsula towards the big bend.

Some mets are discounting this run for two reasons...

-it's such a large shift from previous runs
-there's not much reason for the ridge to break down as quickly as it does
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:09 pm to
Thanks. I hope it stays consistent with that on the next few runs that would be really nice.
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
20361 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

It's been relatively quiet for 9 years now. I'm sure Cantore is in a closet somewhere blasting Metallica as we speak getting ready to ruin someone's day when he rolls up in his van


Funny you say that. I remember when Gustav came through, my old man was watching the Weather Channel and recognized the place Cantore was broadcasting from was about four blocks from where he lived. He told me he knew at that moment that they were well and truly fricked.
Posted by Bistineaubengal
Member since Aug 2008
796 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

Funny you say that. I remember when Gustav came through, my old man was watching the Weather Channel and recognized the place Cantore was broadcasting from was about four blocks from where he lived. He told me he knew at that moment that they were well and truly fricked.


JBE needs to send him an email-he is not allowed in the state of Louisiana.
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

t from previous runs -there's not much reason for the ridge to break down as quickly as it does


Wasn't it said from the beginning by a lot of people that these models tend to break down ridges too quick?
Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5308 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:27 pm to
I've been saying that since before this thread was created.

Doesn't mean that is the case here but I am not buying a ridge breaking down that fast until I see 3-4 runs in a row showing it and we are closer to landfall.

That ridge has been prominent all summer, it breaking down right as this storm approaches seems rather suspect, especially so when looking at past examples where they broke down the ridge too quickly.
Posted by Bama and Beer
Baldwin Co, AL
Member since Oct 2010
80877 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:50 pm to
Well this shite died quick
Posted by LakeViewLSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2009
17730 posts
Posted on 8/24/16 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

He's probably already practicing standing on a beach holding the microphone in one hand and holding down his baseball cap with the other hand while leaning into the wind.


Jim Cantore needs no practice. Dudes a vet. He can skip training camp.
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