re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired

All the spaghetti plots are pointing to the Gulf, and we're a week and a day out...


Que the "armchair meteorologists" meltdown....

Going to Florida panhandle on Oct 9th. Be an issue?

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All the spaghetti plots are pointing to the Gulf, and we're a week and a day out.

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Looks like a fish to me with a cold front bending it out.

rds is this for real??

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is this for real??

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Like real clouds out over the ocean? Yes. Like a real threat for Louisiana, the Gulf, Florida, etc? No one can really say at this point. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the future track of the system.

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Doesn't a system that is not a strong system tend to not do well in the eastern Caribbean?

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Yes, but climo suggest that the unfavorable conditions should start to lessen as we move into October but the data points to it still being pretty unfavorable over the next two weeks.

This is showing when systems were first named during the last week of September:



and the first week of October:



So, there is a pretty signifiant dead spot from about 63W over to 73W. So will it get a name before 63W? That is certainly an intriguing question and genesis forecasting is still one of the areas that the models and everyone else still struggles with

There area a few clues as to what might be going on. The 00z Best Track has this near 10N 50W:



and currently all the deep convection is pretty far to the north associated with some stronger shear.



Then add to that that this still has a pretty big circulation that is going to take time to consolidate and genesis doesn't seem imminent.



I saw some calls today for this to be a named system in the morning. While that certainly could happen, it would take a sustained burst of deep convection near the center overnight. Can that happen? Who knows but the current back ground state of the MDR is being surpressed by the MJO:



The top panel is for today, it shows a suppressed MJO state for the MDR (orange shaded areas). However, there is a KW pushing across the basin (blue contours) and it should be superimposed over 97L later this evening or tomorrow. That should help to counter the background state and give convection a nice boost. Current research suggest that the most favorable conditions for genesis occur around 2 or 3 days after passage of a KW. So that would put genesis occurring pretty close to the beginning of the 63W dead zone.

Another look at analysis of the KW shows it but maybe not as robust as the image above:



However, the timing is in agreement b/w the two different analysis tools. So that is a pretty strong signal for possibly more favorable conditions for genesis as the system nears 60-63W. Another thing, NOAA ESRL shows a lot of mid-level dry air out ahead and to the SW of the system. That could also slow development:



TL, DR - who knows but NHC has the odds at 90% over the next 5 days and recon should fly tomorrow

That may be one of the most technical post ever made on here. .01% of TD users understand any of that.















Show off

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I usually just read his helpful summaries at the bottom and ignore all the pretty colors

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And I though I was the only one that did that.

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The kicker trough that was coming in from the west was a lot less pronounced in the 00z Euro EPS run with the D10 steering pattern a bit more concerning:

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between Louisiana and Florida.

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Crazy stuff

ETA: Damn you Cosmo