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Started By
Message
re: Storm Aftermath - Hurricane Matthew will be Retired
Posted on 9/25/16 at 8:11 am to udtiger
Posted on 9/25/16 at 8:11 am to udtiger
This still has really strong ensemble support with nearly 1/2 of the 00z Euro EPS members bringing it to hurricane strength. Also, more of a climo look is showing up with more members curving north and missing the Gulf.
00z Euro EPS at D10:
Still has about half the members staying weak and into Central America, so that image shows a pretty strong signal for a stronger system to curve north into Florida or to escape out through the Islands.
00z Euro EPS at D10:
Still has about half the members staying weak and into Central America, so that image shows a pretty strong signal for a stronger system to curve north into Florida or to escape out through the Islands.
2
Posted on 9/25/16 at 8:57 am to rds dc
Thought the latest had it coming into the gulf and hitting southwest tip of florida
Posted on 9/25/16 at 9:05 am to t00f
quote:
Thought the latest had it coming into the gulf and hitting southwest tip of florida
Individual model runs are not reliable that far out for track of system. Typically, models can pick up trends 5 to 7 days out prior to storm formation. There are some large scale global patterns that suggest that the ensembles are doing a good job out close to day 10 right now.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 9:14 am to rds dc
OK thanks, just looking at this when I mentioned that.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 10:21 am to t00f
A few differences b/w the 00z Euro and GFS at D7 make for some different results. Both models show a -EPO and -PNA pattern that would tend to favor ridging across the Eastern US but the Euro has a cutoff low over the Ohio Valley. The evolution of that cutoff low allows the system to escape out through the Islands and out to sea.
00z Euro at D7:
00z GFS at D7:
00z Euro EPS at D7:
00z GEFS at D7:
So the 00z Euro operational run appears to be an outlier.
00z Euro at D7:
00z GFS at D7:
00z Euro EPS at D7:
00z GEFS at D7:
So the 00z Euro operational run appears to be an outlier.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 12:25 pm to rds dc
frick, IM headed to Exuma next sunday.......
Wedding
Wedding
This post was edited on 9/25/16 at 12:26 pm
Posted on 9/25/16 at 12:35 pm to rds dc
This thing ain't touching US land.
Puerto Rico doesn't count.
Puerto Rico doesn't count.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 12:55 pm to moffettduck
quote:
Another dud of a season.. everyone it was fun with no major damage or storms to worry about.
The massive flooding in South LA was from the tropics. It just didn't meet the definition of a named storm.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 1:49 pm to TigerTatorTots
Any model beyond 10 days isn't going to be accurate. Actually anything past 7 won't be accurate. I'll start watching this when it approaches Cuba.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 2:34 pm to catholictigerfan
Pretty good agreement across the 12z models that an upper low is going to cutoff across the SE and then hang around long enough to pull the system off the north coast of South America and out to sea. Models had high pressure across the SE in this time frame a couple of days ago.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 2:39 pm to rds dc
So how does Punta Cana DR look around Tuesday Oct 4
This post was edited on 9/25/16 at 2:42 pm
Posted on 9/25/16 at 2:41 pm to rds dc
I like the direction the models are going but i will still keep a eye on it cutoff lows can be tricky to track.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 2:51 pm to rds dc
I agree we need to watch this and it could be a threat but I hate when people post a model from 12 13 days out that has it close to Louisiana. Models that far out are almost like throwing darts at a map to see where it may end up. By the end of next week I'll start watching the models.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 3:37 pm to lsuman25
quote:
I like the direction the models are going but i will still keep a eye on it cutoff lows can be tricky to track.
I would feel a lot better about things, if the track wasn't dependent on a cutoff low. The 12z Euro EPS is coming in and the operational appears to be on the far eastern side of the spread. The mean at D10 appears to be between Cuba and Honduras. However, it is not unusual for the Euro operational to sniff out changes before the ensembles do.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 5:04 pm to rds dc
18z GFS with some minor changes so far through D4, system is a bit slower with a bit more of a ridge over the top. Cutoff low doesn't appear to be digging as far into the SE.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 5:30 pm to rds dc
rds,
Obviously the models need to be initialized to run and the better the starting point, the more accurate the results should be several days down the road.
My question is: When will the first recon flight with sampling of the atmosphere for help in initializing the models be made? Is it when the LLCC gets past 50W longitude and is approaching the Antilles?
Obviously the models need to be initialized to run and the better the starting point, the more accurate the results should be several days down the road.
My question is: When will the first recon flight with sampling of the atmosphere for help in initializing the models be made? Is it when the LLCC gets past 50W longitude and is approaching the Antilles?
Posted on 9/25/16 at 5:48 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Obviously the models need to be initialized to run and the better the starting point, the more accurate the results should be several days down the road.
My question is: When will the first recon flight with sampling of the atmosphere for help in initializing the models be made? Is it when the LLCC gets past 50W longitude and is approaching the Antilles?
As of now, Tuesday would be first recon. They will also probably request extra soundings across the Ohio Valley and SE to help with the potential cutoff low.
Looks like the 18z GFS ends up in about the same place but just a bit slower. Odds seem to be increasing that this will get kicked out to sea.
Posted on 9/25/16 at 6:26 pm to rds dc
12 Euro EPS shows that there is a good bit of uncertainty after about D7 or so:
Posted on 9/25/16 at 9:29 pm to rds dc
00z Early Models would be bad news for Haiti:
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