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Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:13 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:
What are your odds in saying that the GOM is safe for now?
Pretty close to certain at this point. There is basically no model support for that kind of solution, outside of a few random ensemble members.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:15 am to rds dc
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:17 am to Chad504boy
I was reading a blog earlier from some Weather Underground meteorologist and he believes that the GFS model may have some sort of flaw based on how tight all of those runs are
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:21 am to ForeverLSU02
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:27 am to ForeverLSU02
quote:
I was reading a blog earlier from some Weather Underground meteorologist and he believes that the GFS model may have some sort of flaw based on how tight all of those runs are
The GEFS can have an underdispersion bias and might not truly represent uncertainty as you know move out in time with hurricane tracks.
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 11:32 am
Posted on 9/30/16 at 11:55 am to ForeverLSU02
it never gets oldPosted on 9/30/16 at 1:03 pm to Wishnitwas1998
Pressure down to 960 mb with 120 mph winds
Posted on 9/30/16 at 2:13 pm to ForeverLSU02
I may be wrong, but i think its actually speeding up. isn't this about the time when it was supposed to slow down before making the turn?
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 2:14 pm
Posted on 9/30/16 at 2:25 pm to SohCahToa
It's down to 12 mph moving WSW. I believe that's the slowest it's moved so far
Posted on 9/30/16 at 2:36 pm to ForeverLSU02
I thought it was at 10 earlier. Nothing crazy.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 2:38 pm to ForeverLSU02
Welp, the 12z Euro offers another possibility... Stalls in the Bahamas and then starts to drift back south with a pressure of 917 near the end of the run. How fast the Ohio Valley cutoff low degrades/exits to the NE is giving the models fits in the longer range.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 2:39 pm to rds dc
yea it was an interesting run to say the least..that would be devastating for the Bahamas if that verified.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 2:42 pm to rds dc
quote:Yeah, I saw that. Kind of creepy
Welp, the 12z Euro offers another possibility... Stalls in the Bahamas and then starts to drift back south with a pressure of 917 near the end of the run.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 2:45 pm to ForeverLSU02
So I take it the models can't get a feel for all the ridges and troughs.
One thing is for certain.. it's a powerful sombitch.
Looks like the GFS has moved it further west too.
One thing is for certain.. it's a powerful sombitch.
Looks like the GFS has moved it further west too.
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 2:46 pm
Posted on 9/30/16 at 2:53 pm to razorbackfan4life
954 mb
This damn thing is going to be Cat 4 soon
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 2:59 pm
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:04 pm to ForeverLSU02
Was it expected to stay that far south? The timing of these fronts will be huge.
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:05 pm to bayoudude
Latest models?
Posted on 9/30/16 at 3:18 pm to rds dc
quote:
Upgraded to a major. This could be a really bad situation for the WCARB islands.
kingston airport might really get messed up. it's 3 feet above sea level and the entire harbor would funnel into it in a direct hit.
map
eta: actually the more I look at it the worse I feel about Kingston. Kinda getting a knot in my stomach
This post was edited on 9/30/16 at 3:25 pm
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