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Spinoff from the cell phone thing: solar storms

Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:39 pm
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
64412 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:39 pm
The media is saying solar flares is a likely cause of the cell phone outage today. I don’t buy that story, but that’s beside the point. This story reminded me of the solar storm from 1859 known in history as the Carrington Event…

quote:

The Carrington Event was the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, peaking from 1 to 2 September 1859 during solar cycle 10. It created strong auroral displays that were reported globally[1] and caused sparking and even fires in multiple telegraph stations. The geomagnetic storm was most likely the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun colliding with Earth's magnetosphere.


quote:

Because of the geomagnetically induced current from the electromagnetic field, telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving their operators electric shocks.[22] Telegraph pylons threw sparks.[23] Some operators were able to continue to send and receive messages despite having disconnected their power supplies.[24][25] The following conversation occurred between two operators of the American telegraph line between Boston, Massachusetts, and Portland, Maine, on the night of 2 September 1859 and reported in the Boston Evening Traveler:

Boston operator (to Portland operator): "Please cut off your battery [power source] entirely for fifteen minutes."

Portland operator: "Will do so. It is now disconnected."

Boston: "Mine is disconnected, and we are working with the auroral current. How do you receive my writing?"

Portland: "Better than with our batteries on. – Current comes and goes gradually."

Boston: "My current is very strong at times, and we can work better without the batteries, as the aurora seems to neutralize and augment our batteries alternately, making current too strong at times for our relay magnets. Suppose we work without batteries while we are affected by this trouble."

Portland: "Very well. Shall I go ahead with business?"

Boston: "Yes. Go ahead."
The conversation was carried on for around two hours using no battery power at all and working solely with the current induced by the aurora, the first time on record that more than a word or two was transmitted in such manner.


LINK

Seeing that this coronal mass ejection energized wires to the point telegraphs could operate with no power and even caused multiple fires at telegraph stations, which at the time were still somewhat of a novelty, what would be the impact of such an event on today’s world where we rely on cellular technology and electrical grids, without which our civilization would be thrown into chaos?

Was the massive solar storm of 1859 a one-off event or something that happens on a reoccurring basis? If so, when could we expect such a storm again? Coronal Mass ejections happen on a weekly basis during a period of solar minimum. But during a period of solar maximum, they happen 2-3 times per day. And in case you’re wondering, 2024 is forecasted to be the peak of solar maximum.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 4:06 pm
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42237 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:41 pm to
I’ve seen most sources dismissing the idea that a solar flare caused today’s issues since the majority of the issues were with AT&T’s service. A solar flare wouldn’t impact one provider over another.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 3:42 pm
Posted by carrguitar
Member since Oct 2014
736 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:43 pm to
Superman is powering up
Posted by lockthevaught
Member since Jan 2013
2357 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:47 pm to
Solar flare only hits on daylight side of Earth and that wouldve been centered over India at the initial time of the outage.

The less fun, more likely culprit of this was a misconfiguration by a network engineer. 2nd most likely cause would be cyber attack.

Solar flare is the least likely scenario.
Posted by Dawgfanman
Member since Jun 2015
22224 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

The less fun, more likely culprit of this was a misconfiguration by a network engineer.


As a network engineer I’ll say it was likely a failed UPS..at least that’s the most common cause for us over the last 20 years. Management never wants to fund battery replacements.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
53737 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:51 pm to
quote:

The media is saying solar flares is a likely cause of the cell phone outage today.

A solar flare that just affected one sector of tech and only certain carriers within that sector? Seems odd.
Posted by Galactic Inquisitor
An Incredibly Distant Star
Member since Dec 2013
15169 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:52 pm to
So, I have no idea if it is at all related, but I swear the sun felt brighter and hotter on Monday morning. I looked in my side view mirror on the way to work and it was extremely bright and white.
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
64412 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:59 pm to
quote:

I’ve seen most sources dismissing the idea that a solar flare caused today’s issues since the majority of the issues were with AT&T’s service. A solar flare wouldn’t impact one provider over another.


I dismissed the solar flare story for that very reason. But the story made me think about the Carrington Event and how such an occurrence would impact our world today. Thus, this thread to discuss such a possibility.
Posted by 79
Welp...
Member since Aug 2013
1029 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:01 pm to
Well, hello there Mr Fradella...
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118691 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:08 pm to
quote:

I’ve seen most sources dismissing the idea that a solar flare caused today’s issues since the majority of the issues were with AT&T’s service. A solar flare wouldn’t impact one provider over another.



MAJOR NETWORK OUTAGES | Solar Flare Impact?
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118691 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:09 pm to
quote:

The less fun, more likely culprit of this was a misconfiguration by a network engineer. 2nd most likely cause would be cyber attack.

Solar flare is the least likely scenario.


Unless ground comms between cell towers and satellites were knocked out.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118691 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:11 pm to
quote:

A solar flare that just affected one sector of tech and only certain carriers within that sector?


Apparently it was a lot more than just AT&T:

Posted by ThuperThumpin
Member since Dec 2013
7299 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:16 pm to
quote:

If so, when could we expect such a storm again?


Anytime but the best guess is once every 500 years. We dodged one as powerful as the Carrington event back in 2012.

quote:

what would be the impact of such an event on today’s world where we rely on cellular technology and electrical grids, without which our civilization would be thrown into chaos?


It would be a really bad time for some folks. It wouldnt be a worldwide black out but parts of the planet could lose power for months. This would cause major disruption to transport, food supplies, emergency and hospital services, pumping operations that would quickly affect water and fuel supplies, sewage systems etc..

And the worst news... Carrington Event was a powerful CME but certainly not the most powerful in recorded history either.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 4:17 pm
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118691 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:34 pm to
quote:

It would be a really bad time for some folks.


Could be.

The impact from CMEs are REALLY hard to predict. There are so many factors. With that said the sun ejects CMEs on the regular it just so happens that we are not in the path (which is normal) and/or our magnetosphere is doing it's job and protecting us.

But with the proper trajectory, timing and energy a CME could be really bad.

Probably the best place for your electronic devices would be under a metal roof or inside your car surrounded by metal...acting as a tesla cage, I guess.
Posted by lostinbr
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
9298 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

Solar flare only hits on daylight side of Earth and that wouldve been centered over India at the initial time of the outage.

It’s not true that CME’s (which are technically distinct from solar flares, although they are related) only hit on the daylight side of earth. They interact with Earth’s magnetosphere and can have impacts across the globe, regardless of whether the region is in daylight.

The telegraph incident OP referenced happened at night. In fact, many impacts of CME’s can actually be worse on the night side of the planet due to the way they interact with the magnetosphere.

Not that I think this AT&T issue had anything to do with a CME, just saying the fact that India was facing the Sun wouldn’t have really meant anything in that context.
Posted by ThuperThumpin
Member since Dec 2013
7299 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

Probably the best place for your electronic devices would be under a metal roof or inside your car surrounded by metal...acting as a tesla cage, I guess.


As I understand it small electronic devices aren't in as much risk. It's the large amount of large power transformers that would be blown out and not easily or quickly be able to be replaced that would really screw some areas.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 5:02 pm
Posted by Zander Kelley
Member since Jan 2024
346 posts
Posted on 2/22/24 at 5:30 pm to
Dennis Quaid tried to warn us
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