re: Southern Snow 1/10

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I'd like some of the money part of the band over Alexandria, please

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Euro is the most bullish on that potential scenario

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Meteorologist Nick Mikulas
I’m at the point where I’m watching hourly model updates, and matching up atmospheric profile data from weather balloons, with how it was modeled to happen. If I find a 10 mph difference in the jet stream wind from what is modeled to what the balloon says, it matters. I know this is a passion, and I wouldn’t change having this passion if I could, but accuracy is hard. Couple that with this ranging from a cold rain to a high impact snow across the area, and I have my “work” cut out for me. I always want to be right, but I know that a subtle change in this forecast will change what really happens by a large margin. This isn’t one of those deals where there may be a few flurries. This could be a legitimate snow. Or a legitimate cold rain. Some will be disappointed, some will have a blast. Some will actually be disappointed that they do see snow which is the real brain teaser. This is just my reminder that this is hard to do, I always want to do my best, and I want to communicate the uncertainty of the forecast. So be nice. You always are. Only 4 people banned for raging in several years. Not bad!

With these hourly models, and deep data dives, I’ve only found that it seems this system is going to range from no snow to potentially several inches of snow across the area. I’ll do my best at a parish by parish breakdown, but remember, parishes are pretty big. For our purposes, the better chance of higher totals will generally be on the north side of the parish unless you’re in the northern part of the Central Louisiana area. Sabine, Natchitoches, Grant, and Winn will be fairly uniform in the forecast. That means if I say 1-3 inches, you may see 1 inch anywhere in the parish, or 3 inches anywhere. Also, if I say 1-3 inches and you get 1 inch, I don’t want to hear, “where are the 3 inches of snow we were supposed to get?” You’d be surprised at the things meteorologists get fussed at for. It’s kind of like the warning label saying not to eat the Tide Pods. That warning is there because people actually ate them. So any disclaimer I ever issue is because I’ve experienced nonsensical anger on the subject. I don’t really care, but it’s worth mentioning.

One other note is that there is an early impulse that will move through Sunday morning. This could bring flurries or sleet pellets pretty much anywhere. It’s a low probability deal, and probably won’t accumulate, but it’s the best chance some of our southern parishes will get to see snow. The timing on that will be from 6:00 AM until noon. The main show will be from around 4:00 PM until early Monday morning. It’ll start earlier out west.

Here is the parish by parish forecast. There will be different precipitation types throughout this event. You could see an initial burst of snow, followed by rain, then some sleet, then back to rain, then a burst of heavy snow, then rain. Then snow. I’m not going to try to get cute with timing all that, but will highlight which parishes would be mainly rain.

Rapides… 0-2 inches of snow possible. That means there could be zero inches. Refer to the earlier whining I did.

Grant… Dusting to 3 inches. I really think most of Grant sees flakes.

Vernon… 0-2 inches. The most likely area to have fun in Vernon Parish will be the northwest part of the parish, near Toledo Bend.

Avoyelles… 0-1 inch possible. The storm will be tracking northeast, so the chances for heavier snow are less in Avoyelles, even though it’s on a similar latitude as Rapides and Vernon.

Beauregard…. 0-1 inch possible. It helps being further west, but you’re also south. You do have the best chance to see morning flurries, so that’s cool.

Allen… 0 to a dusting. Mainly rain. It’s not impossible to see flakes in Allen Parish, but it’s going to be hard to get much accumulation. Root for me to be wrong.

Evangeline… 0 to a dusting. Mainly rain.Again, the northern side of the parish may see some snow, but it’ll be tough to see much accumulation.

St. Landry Parish. 0 to a dusting. Mainly rain. You all probably won’t see snow. Your best chance is early in the day. It’s not impossible, but go visit someone you love in Natchitoches. That’ll be a much better bet to see snow.

Sabine Parish… 1-4 inches. This is where it gets fun. I’ve been looking at hotels in Many.

Natchitoches Parish. A coating to 4 inches. Another fun one, and another strong candidate to have a contributing meteorologist paying them a visit if it looks like he’s going to not see snow. It’s a big parish, so the southern end is where the lighter totals would be.

Winn Parish.. .1-4 inches. Winn Parish should see snow. All I think of when I think of Winn Parish is Dusty Lebaron. I hope his family gets a moment of enjoyment from some Louisiana snow. RIP Dusty.

LaSalle Parish… Dusting to 3 inches. Again, most of LaSalle probably sees snow, but it’s going to be quite the north south change from not much to plenty from what I’m seeing.

Catahoula Parish… 0-2 inches. They are far enough north, but far enough east to miss the best of this.

Concordia Parish… 0-2 inches. Same as Catahoula, but a bit further east. Closer to the Tensas Parish line is better.

So there’s my little breakdown. I think somewhere, in some unforecastable location, there is 6+ inches of snow. Probably between Shreveport and Natchitoches. Ajax? Coushatta? Goldonna? I don’t know, but I think someone gets a nice winter shellacking from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning. And many others should have some winter fun. I’ll do a quick update before bed.

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Its on pecawnnn

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So just worthless cold rain for southeast LA?

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Nick Mikulas

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That storm over western europe was legit

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