re: Southeastern Severe Weather Thread: 12/9-12/10

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Live Storm Chasers
@LiveStormChaser
So, you know that big fire explosion as the tornado it an electric substation in the Nashville, Tennesse area yesterday?...

Well, here is the damage... Located in Madison, TN it sustained significant damage. The control building was damaged as well as some of the interior structure.

Source/Nashville Electric Service

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https://twitter.com/LiveStormChaser/status/1733965296581464105

@NWSNashville

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Storm survey findings from December 9, 2023 tornado outbreak in #MiddleTN:

Clarksville: EF-3 with winds of 150 mph.

Madison/Hendersonville/Gallatin: (preliminary) EF-2 with winds of 125 mph.

Further surveys will be completed over the coming days. #tnwx

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Have seen tons of damage pics today

Glad everyone is ok though

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ABC 33/40 News @abc3340 · 34m UPDATE: The National Weather Service said there were two short tornado tracks confirmed in Jefferson County. There was an EF-1 tornado just north of Lakeshore Parkway from Wildwood to Samford and another EF-1 from Brookwood Mall to Cahaba Heights.

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We are in Edgewood (a few blocks north of Samford/Lakeshore) and the damage is something. I’ve seen so many bad storms head towards Bham only to veer north or south. You just (wrongly) assume that maybe Red Mountain and Shades Crest played some role in protecting the area.

Kind of shocked how the sirens or phone alerts didn’t go off. Lots of people discussing that since they confirmed it was a tornado.

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You just (wrongly) assume that maybe Red Mountain and Shades Crest played some role in protecting the area.

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Years ago we were hit by a tornado. We were in the low spot, and houses up on top of the hill,where the tornado path crossed over, were relatively unscathed.

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However, the National Weather Service did issue a severe thunderstorm warning for the entire Birmingham metro and I believe they mentioned the possibility of a spin up tornado in that warning. Unfortunately, a lot of people don’t pay much attention to severe thunderstorm warnings.

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Then a tornado warning should have been issued. Plenty of times a tornado is never confirmed in a tornado warning, just a radar indicated one.
Not sure who all would have done things differently since it occurred so late

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Then a tornado warning should have been issued. Plenty of times a tornado is never confirmed in a tornado warning, just a radar indicated one.
Not sure who all would have done things differently since it occurred so late

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That's why I always say to treat storms like that (a line with high winds and embedded rotations) like a tornado warning when it rolls through. The NWS, nor anyone else, is going to catch 100% of those type tornadoes. Even if they do, by the time the warning is issued and pushed to the public that type tornado will have already done its damage and gone.

I've seen confirmed tornadoes that had a duration of less time than it takes for the radar to update a new scan. If the couplet didn't form on radar at just the right time, the radar never saw it. It just is what it is.

Never trust those QLCS storms with high winds and embedded rotations. Of course, the biggest threat they pose to life is to people in vehicles or in mobile homes. If you're driving or live in a mobile home, treat those storms like you would a tornado warning. Otherwise, those brief spin-ups aren't generally killer tornadoes, and that's good because we will never catch them all.

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The problem is post-April 27th, the area will often shut down at the threat of potential storms and nothing happens.

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Is this really an issue? I'm in north AL, dealt with 4/27/11, and we don't shut down like that.

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but the system or network doesn’t go all in when there’s a storm that has potential to spin off tornados

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The system worked exactly as it is intended to work. The severe thunderstorm warning included the possibility of a spin-up tornado. Rarely will any NWS blanket warn a line of storms for tornadoes. That has proven to be an even worse approach than possibly missing a brief, spin-up tornado. Large swaths of a county wind up being warned and the majority are nowhere near the suspect area of circulation. That leads to even more people not paying attention.

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But it seems to me that if these storms can cause tornados but there’s no advance warning because it’s not technically a tornado warning, then there’s some sort of gap in the system there.

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At a certain point it becomes the responsibility of the individual. Strong QLCS systems often get the "tornado possible" tag. They also can get the "destructive thunderstorm" tag for winds in excess of 80mph. I'll tell you a secret, it doesn't matter if winds are rotating or not......80+ mph winds can do similar damage as a low-end tornado. People regularly ignore those warnings, though. Severe thunderstorm warnings should garner similar attention from the general public as do tornado warnings, particularly on high shear days.

I said it in an earlier post, and I will say it again......we will never, ever, ever catch every single tornado in a QLCS system. Radar doesn't work that way, and no met working a warning desk has a crystal ball. If we start trying to warn every single spot in a line of storms that could possibly produce a brief, spin-up tornado the false alarm rate will skyrocket much higher than it already is.

The overwhelming majority of tornadoes from those type systems are not killer tornadoes. Public messaging for such systems should be geared toward not driving during those systems and not staying in a mobile home when they are forecast. Everyone else in a sturdy structure and not outside are relatively "safe" during those events.

Long story short: you could have been given the warning for one of those tornadoes and it wouldn't have made one bit of difference. It was over and gone before it was ever seen on radar. I know that for a fact as I had an EF1 in that exact scenario pass about 40 yards from my house several years ago. No warning and no possible chance of one. The overall path length was just over a quarter mile and the time on the ground was something like five minutes. Radar was useless.

Been living in Nashville for a year now.

Firs time I've ever heard a Tornado siren. Was wild to see the cloud shapes (didn't see the Tornado) and the wind basically stopped blowing for a bit.