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Started By
Message
re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:41 am to lsucoonass
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:41 am to lsucoonass
quote:after you have already pulled a gold ball, you don't know that to be true.
2 of the boxes still have a gold ball
0
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:41 am to Displaced
quote:
50%, what am I missing?
the fact that you've drawn gold first. You have 0% chance of drawing silver first, which skews the outcome.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:42 am to Displaced
Just pretend there are only two boxes, one with two gold balls and one mixed. If you pull a gold ball, which is more likely, you pulled it from a box with two golds in it, or you pulled the one gold ball from the mixed box?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:42 am to Havoc
quote:
ETA: it says the same box. So you do know you’re drawing from either GG or GS. The “extra” gold ball isn’t relevant.
It has been explained multiple times. If you still do not get it, I can't help you.
Because you do not know which of the 2 remaining boxes you drew from, you ahve to look at all outcomes. As mentioned before 2 of the 3 possible outcomes result in a gold ball.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:42 am to ell_13
quote:
It's a trick question then. Because the 3rd box is either relevant or it's not. When you ALWAYS get a gold ball, then how is the 3rd one relevant?
No it isn't. If you pick silver first the question would change to the odds of picking silver again
I really can't believe there is this much debate on this.
G1
G2
G3
S1
S2
S3
If you pick G1 (without knowing what box it was), the remaining possibilities are G2, G3, or S1. 2/3 of those are gold
If you pick G2 (without knowing what box it was), the remaining possibilities are G1, G3, or S1. 2/3 of those are gold
If you pick G3 (without knowing what box it was), the remaining possibilities are G1, G2, or S1. 2/3 of those are gold
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:43 am to LNCHBOX
I get the explanation. I just don't get why you are looking at it as two outcomes for the one remaining ball in the two gold box.
I guess I've been out of school too long.
I guess I've been out of school too long.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:43 am to Displaced
There are 3 scenarios of your 2 picks.
Here are first pick, second pick.
1. Gold 1, Gold 2
2. Gold 2, Gold 1
3. Gold, Silver
Here are first pick, second pick.
1. Gold 1, Gold 2
2. Gold 2, Gold 1
3. Gold, Silver
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:45 am to Displaced
quote:
I just don't get why you are looking at it as two outcomes for the one remaining ball in the two gold box.
Because you don’t know which gold ball you picked.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:45 am to Fe_Mike
quote:This is the best way to explain it, imo.
Instead of 2 balls, each box has 50 balls.
One has all gold, one has all silver, one has 49 silver and one gold.
If you draw a gold ball and have to pick another from the same box, the probability that it is going to be gold again is huge. Because the probability that you grabbed the one gold ball from the box of 49 silver is not good.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:46 am to TH03
I get that, I guess I was thinking independent from the first draw.
If you think of it like Schrodinger though, the ball is both silver and gold until you put your hand in there.
If you think of it like Schrodinger though, the ball is both silver and gold until you put your hand in there.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:48 am to PearlJam
I think it helps to think of the box as having separate compartments too. That way you're not just reaching your hand in and picking one, you're actively choosing which side of the box you want to pick from. It makes the 3 different scenarios unique.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:50 am to Ingeniero
quote:
I think it helps to think of the box as having separate compartments too. That way you're not just reaching your hand in and picking one, you're actively choosing which side of the box you want to pick from. It makes the 3 different scenarios unique.
That’s a really good explanation.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:51 am to Ingeniero
Let me try this one more time. I think we all agree that in this question from the OP that you have to pick the second ball from the same box from which you picked the first one.
You cant change boxes after the first pick.
There is a 1/3rds chance that the box you pick has two gold balls. Those odds never change !!! The odds would only change if I were allowed to pick a different box on the second pick.
If we had 100 boxes and 99 boxes had one silver ball and one gold ball and only 1 box had two gold balls.
I pick a box from the stage and hold it in my lap. I pull a ball out and its gold. What are the odds that the next ball I pick from that same box is gold?
1/100 …. The odds don't suddenly change after I pick that first ball out of the box.
You cant change boxes after the first pick.
There is a 1/3rds chance that the box you pick has two gold balls. Those odds never change !!! The odds would only change if I were allowed to pick a different box on the second pick.
If we had 100 boxes and 99 boxes had one silver ball and one gold ball and only 1 box had two gold balls.
I pick a box from the stage and hold it in my lap. I pull a ball out and its gold. What are the odds that the next ball I pick from that same box is gold?
1/100 …. The odds don't suddenly change after I pick that first ball out of the box.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:51 am to Ingeniero
Right. The explanation on wiki refers to each ball being in a drawer in each box.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:52 am to memphis tiger
quote:
If you still do not get it, I can't help you.
I may be hopeless.
quote:
Because you do not know which of the 2 remaining boxes you drew from, you ahve to look at all outcomes.
But you DO know (same box), you know that you have a box with one remaining ball in it, and that you either picked the box with GG or GS and the one remaining ball is G or S.
:pain:
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:53 am to TheMailman
quote:
There is a 1/3rds chance that the box you pick has two gold balls.
No.
Possible opening moves resulting in drawing a gold ball:
1 - Draw G1 from B1
2 - Draw G2 from B1
3 - Draw G1 from B2
Your odds are 2/3 that you've drawn a gold ball from the box with two gold balls.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:54 am to 50_Tiger
2 out of 3 chance. Amirite
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:55 am to TheMailman
quote:Sure they do. Because now you know that box has 1 gold and the 3rd box becomes irrelevant. It either has a second gold or a silver. But the odds of you grabbing a gold from the box with two golds is 16.67% greater than pulling from the box with 1 gold and 1 silver. Hence the 67.67%.
There is a 1/3rds chance that the box you pick has two gold balls. Those odds never change !!!
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 10:56 am
Posted on 7/23/18 at 10:55 am to Placebeaux
quote:
2 out of 3 chance. Amirite
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