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Message
re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:07 pm to ell_13
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:07 pm to ell_13
quote:
So you stick with it.
I wish there was a game show like Deal or No Deal where the host knew where the $1MM case was out of 26 cases, but no other cases, and proceeded to reveal random cases other than the $1MM case as the show progressed. The math says you should wait until the end and switch with the host every time, but this thread proves many people would hold on to their original case thinking they chose correctly out of 26 instead of taking the 25/26 odds they were wrong originally.
2
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:10 pm to slackster
quote:The rules would be important. If you can't switch until there are only two cases left, then frick yeah, you switch.
this thread proves many people would hold on to their original case thinking they chose correctly out of 26 instead of taking the 25/26 odds they were wrong originally
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:12 pm to slackster
quote:
he math says you should wait until the end and switch with the host every time
well there are only two possible outcomes, so...catch 22.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:13 pm to ell_13
quote:
That's what makes this monty hall. You now know that one of the boxes you DIDN'T chose is contained completely of the opposite color.
If they opened Gold Silver, they wouldn't let you pull a ball before switching.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:15 pm to Scooba
quote:Well yeah, you aren't opening another box if you're allowed to pull from the box you picked. It's two different scenarios.
If they opened Gold Silver, they wouldn't let you pull a ball before switching.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:23 pm to ell_13
quote:
The rules would be important. If you can't switch until there are only two cases left, then frick yeah, you switch.
You can't switch until the end. That's the way the game was played on TV.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:24 pm to slackster
I only ever saw bits and pieces of that show. It wasn't that intriguing to me. I know they made offers on their case.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:26 pm to ell_13
quote:
. If you can't switch until there are only two cases left, then frick yeah, you switch.
It's 50/50 at the end with 2 boxes left.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:27 pm to slackster
quote:
ell, you should start a thread about the boy or girl paradox.
is this another one of those weird gender pronoun discussions?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:28 pm to TheMailman
quote:It's not. You would lose a lot of money.
It's 50/50 at the end with 2 boxes left.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:29 pm to TheMailman
quote:
TheMailman
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:33 pm to ell_13
Sure it is 50/50 ..
Like you said the rules matter. If the host or anybody knows what's in the boxes and acts accordingly then it won't be 50/50 at the end and becomes the monty hall deal.
But on the deal or no deal game on tv - nobody knew what was in the boxes.
Like you said the rules matter. If the host or anybody knows what's in the boxes and acts accordingly then it won't be 50/50 at the end and becomes the monty hall deal.
But on the deal or no deal game on tv - nobody knew what was in the boxes.
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:35 pm to TheMailman
quote:If there are two boxes left, and you chose your box when there were 26 boxes, then you switch regardless. The only reason slack mentioned the host knowing was so that people somehow definitely got to the last two.
Like you said the rules matter. If the host or anybody knows what's in the boxes and acts accordingly then it won't be 50/50 at the end.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:37 pm to ell_13
well if all the boxes were picked at random and you get to the end with two boxes IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE IF YOU SWITCH .. the odds become 50/50.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:38 pm to TheMailman
quote:
well if all the boxes were picked at random and you get to the end with two boxes IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE IF YOU SWITCH .. the odds become 50/50.
You can't actually believe this. There's just no way.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:42 pm to monkeybutt
The reason it does end up at 50/50 is that the cases are randomly removed by the contestant and just happen not be the jackpot. If the host were removing cases that he knew weren't the hjackpot and narrowed it down to 2 cases, then the odds would be 25/26 (I think there were 26 cases on deal or no deal) that it's in the other case.
if the cases are picked at random its not the monty hall paradox and it makes zero difference to switch.
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:42 pm to TheMailman
quote:
the odds become 50/50.
so if you randomly throw away each briefcase until there are two remaining...then there's a 50% chance that one of the remaining briefcases has the $1MM?
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Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:44 pm to CptRusty
quote:
you randomly throw away each briefcase until there are two remaining...then there's a 50% chance that one of the remaining briefcases has the $1MM?
if the two values left remaining (hidden in the boxes) are $1 and $1,000,000. Then yes, there is a 50% chance that one of those remaining holds $1,000,000.
What's so funny about that
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:47 pm to TheMailman
because if you were randomly throwing away the briefacases, then you almost certainly threw away the $1MM case.
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