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Started By
Message
re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:37 pm to glorymanutdtiger
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:37 pm to glorymanutdtiger
quote:
You have to use conditional probability. The probablity of picking the each box is 1/3. But the next ball also being gold also is 100% for the one with two gold balls and 0 for one with gold and silver since you already picked the only gold. So it is 1/3*1 + 1/3*0 = 1/3. Answer is 1/3
Just following your logic, the possibility of the next ball being silver in the gold/silver box is 100% and 0% in the all gold box, therefore 1/3*1 + 1/3*0 = 1/3. The probability of the next ball being gold is 1/3, the probability of the next ball being silver is 1/3, so what happens to the remaining 1/3? Is it tithed?
0
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:38 pm to LCA131
I would think you would get better results with using your right hand everytime.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:40 pm to ell_13
ell, you should start a thread about the boy or girl paradox.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:41 pm to slackster
You gotta let this one die first. Another math thread will be due in a week after that.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:42 pm to ell_13
quote:
But the moment you pull a gold, your chances of having another gold go up to 67% because that's the probability of pulling one of the 3 gold balls out of the same box.
Jesus, that's what I'm asking.
The moment you pull 1 gold ball from the original box you picked, your odds according to this thread are 67% that you have the Gold Gold box. So you would stay with it if given the chance to switch.
You pulling 1 ball out would change the odds out of the traditional Monty Hall favor?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:43 pm to LZ83
quote:
would think you would get better results with using your right hand everytime.
This is math, you dolt. There is no better or worse, there simply is.
fricking chick chiropractors...
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:43 pm to Scooba
quote:It's still technically monty hall is all I'm saying and if you want it to look traditional, you keep the box you chose closed and open one of the other boxes. We agree except for that.
You pulling 1 ball out would change the odds out of the traditional Monty Hall favor?
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 2:44 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:45 pm to LCA131
Look here senile. If you have 6 balls and take one out there is 5 left. My 4 y/o figured that out in the first 2 pages
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:46 pm to LZ83
quote:
My 4 y/o figured that out in the first 2 pages
The mere fact that you have offspring chills me for the future of this world.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:47 pm to glorymanutdtiger
quote:
You have to use conditional probability. The probablity of picking the each box is 1/3. But the next ball also being gold also is 100% for the one with two gold balls and 0 for one with gold and silver since you already picked the only gold. So it is 1/3*1 + 1/3*0 = 1/3. Answer is 1/3
"You have to use conditional probability"
*fails to recognize conditions which change probability*
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 2:50 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:48 pm to ell_13
quote:
you keep the box you chose closed and open one of the other boxes.
Agreed. That would essentially be exactly the same as Monty Hall. But how does you pulling 1 gold ball out of your box change the odds?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:49 pm to Scooba
quote:Knowing you picked a gold means everything to this problem. If you picked a gold, it's more likely the second ball is gold, too. So you stick with it.
But how does you pulling 1 gold ball out of your box change the odds?
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 2:50 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:51 pm to LCA131
The odds/probability of me having another one is 0....or is it 100% not
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:53 pm to LZ83
Hell the one you are raising is mine.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:54 pm to LCA131
quote:
Hell the one you are raising is mine.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:57 pm to Scooba
quote:
But how does you pulling 1 gold ball out of your box change the odds?
First off, it eliminates one of the boxes removing 2 silver balls from the equation. You know that if you’ve pulled a gold, it is impossible to be from the all silver box.
Second, if you’ve pulled gold, there’s a 2/3 chance that you’ve pulled from the all gold box rather than the mixed box. There were 2 chances of pulling gold from the all gold box vs 1 chance in the mixed box.
Since there was a 2/3 chance you pulled from the all gold box, your second pull still has a 2/3 chance of being from the all gold box and thus being another gold ball.
Your odds have increased due to pulling the first gold ball and shrinking the amount of possible selections.
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:01 pm to TH03
quote:
First off, it eliminates one of the boxes removing 2 silver balls from the equation.
The host did that by showing you "what was behind door #3"
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:04 pm to Scooba
Correct.
I wasn’t following you and ell’s discussion tbh.
I wasn’t following you and ell’s discussion tbh.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:06 pm to LCA131
No wonder it’s so ugly and stupid
Posted on 7/24/18 at 3:07 pm to Scooba
quote:That's what makes this monty hall. You now know that one of the boxes you DIDN'T chose is contained completely of the opposite color.
The host did that by showing you "what was behind door #3"
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