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re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:13 pm to ell_13
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:13 pm to ell_13
quote:
You could have chosen SS in this scenario.
But they didnt. Not in my scenario or the OP. That's what I'm trying to say. By letting you pull 1 ball, like in the OP, it should change the odds correct? Is the fact that you pulled a gold ball luck?? or is it 2/3 more likely that you originally picked the Gold Gold box and should keep it rather than switch?
2
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:14 pm to Scooba
Why did they use gold and silver?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:15 pm to RobbBobb
quote:
Even Bertrands box says this is a paradox. If truly allowed to select from all boxes, the probability is reduced to 1/2. You can only derive the probability of 2/3, if all boxes are available to the selector. You have told me I simply cannot be allowed to select the AS box
Therefore, you have totally changed the 'probability' of the entire problem
Your ability to blabber incoherently and incorrectly is impressive.
The problem is very straight forward - you've drawn a ball and it's gold. What is the probability that the next ball is gold?
You completely misunderstand Bertrand's box. All three boxes are equally likely. GIVEN that we've found a gold ball, the probability we've selected from the all gold box is 2/3. If we observed a silver ball, the probability we've selected the all silver box is 2/3.
The observation is the key.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:15 pm to LZ83
quote:
Why did they use gold and silver?
because copper and bronze would change the odds. duh.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:16 pm to CptRusty
Thanks.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:16 pm to CptRusty
But would you switch?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:16 pm to Scooba
quote:Yeah. I said as much. it's still Monty Hall, but backwards. You stay with what you picked if you'r goal is the same color ball as what you pulled, in this case Gold.
But they didnt. Not in my scenario or the OP. That's what I'm trying to say. By letting you pull 1 ball, like in the OP, it should change the odds correct?
quote:No. You have a 50/50 shot of picking gold out of 3 random boxes.
Is the fact that you pulled a gold ball luck??
quote:Before you know anything, it's 50/50 you pick gold and 33% of picking gold/gold. But the moment you pull a gold, your chances of having another gold go up to 67% because that's the probability of pulling one of the 3 gold balls out of the same box.
is it 2/3 more likely that you originally picked the Gold Gold box and should keep it rather than switch?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:17 pm to Scooba
depends if I pull copper or bronze
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:17 pm to Scooba
Switch what?
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 2:17 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:18 pm to LZ83
quote:Colors.
Switch what?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:18 pm to ell_13
Oh, I thought they were talking about switching boxes.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:21 pm to Scooba
Does Monty Hall post here? And if he does, what is his screen name?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:23 pm to LCA131
quote:Chicken
Does Monty Hall post here? And if he does, what is his screen name?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:24 pm to 50_Tiger
What is the probability the next ball will be gold if you choose from the same box"?
Ok if one ball has been removed and we don't know which box has been picked at random...
then the probably begins at this point right?
only 2 boxes with 2 gold balls left and we don't know which box was randomly picked...
so yeah, I guess the 67% makes sense
3/4 gold balls on 2 draws
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:26 pm to LCA131
You have to use conditional probability. The probablity of picking the each box is 1/3. But the next ball also being gold also is 100% for the one with two gold balls and 0 for one with gold and silver since you already picked the only gold. So it is 1/3*1 + 1/3*0 = 1/3. Answer is 1/3
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:28 pm to glorymanutdtiger
quote:10 more pages
The probablity of picking the each box is 1/3. But the next ball also being gold also is 100% for the one with two gold balls and 0 for one with gold and silver since you already picked the only gold. So it is 1/3*1 + 1/3*0 = 1/3. Answer is 1/3
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:29 pm to glorymanutdtiger
quote:
You have to use conditional probability. The probablity of picking the each box is 1/3. But the next ball also being gold also is 100% for the one with two gold balls and 0 for one with gold and silver since you already picked the only gold. So it is 1/3*1 + 1/3*0 = 1/3. Answer is 1/3
My boy
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:31 pm to LCA131
quote:
Does Monty Hall post here? And if he does, what is his screen name?
tGOAT
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:31 pm to TheMailman
He literally figured out the probability of picking the GG box before ever actually choosing. What he said means nothing.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:37 pm to LZ83
quote:
Oh,I thought they were talking about switching boxes.
Does it matter if I choose the first ball with my right hand and the second with my other hand (left)?
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