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Message
re: Solve this OT
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:33 pm to RobbBobb
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:33 pm to RobbBobb
quote:
Because Monte Hall didn't force you to pick a certain door at the onset.
This could be revised similar to the Monty Hall if the scenario is re-worded.
Let's say it's a game with a prize should you select the box with 2 gold balls.
You have three boxes to choose from. GG - GS - SS
You randomly select one box.
Game host takes one of the remaining boxes off the stage and shows you that it has two silver balls eliminating it from play. He then tells you to pull a ball from your box; you do and see that it is gold. You're still in it.
Then he gives you a choice, keep your box, or switch to the only remaining box on the stage.
Monty Hall says you should switch, but the odds in this thread say you should keep your box.
Should you switch or keep your original box?
1
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:41 pm to Scooba
quote:Uh... this isn't it at all.
Let's say it's a game with a prize should you select the box with 2 gold balls.
You have three boxes to choose from. GG - GS - SS
You randomly select one box.
Game host takes one of the remaining boxes off the stage and shows you that it has two silver balls eliminating it from play. He then tells you to pull a ball from your box; you do and see that it is gold. You're still in it.
Then he gives you a choice, keep your box, or switch to the only remaining box on the stage.
Monty Hall says you should switch, but the odds in this thread say you should keep your box.
Should you switch or keep your original box?
You took it too far. All you had to say was that the gameshow host opens either the SS box or the GS box and asks if you want to switch without ever looking in the box you picked. The GG box is more likely in the door the host didn't choose to open. That's when you switch.
What you described is still "Monty Hall" but backwards. You stay because of the probability of choosing the same ball twice is 67%.
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:46 pm to RobbBobb
quote:False. The scenario is that you chose randomly and picked the gold ball... then you are asked the probability of getting a second gold ball. The same could have been asked about getting a second silver ball if your first pull was silver. It's still 67%.
You have told me I simply cannot be allowed to select the AS box
Therefore, you have totally changed the 'probability' of the entire problem
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:46 pm to ell_13
Still going, huh?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:48 pm to LZ83
it's amazing that there can be so much longevity with threads like these or those asinine ones that have what many perceive to be ambiguous math problems
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:49 pm to VinegarStrokes
Yup, good entertainment
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:50 pm to LZ83
Rhetorical question, huh?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:50 pm to ell_13
No, I didn’t need an answer.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 1:59 pm to ell_13
quote:
The same could have been asked about getting a second silver ball if your first pull was silver. It's still 67%.
I thought one out of two was just 50%?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:00 pm to ell_13
quote:
What you described is still "Monty Hall" but backwards.
How so? It's not about picking balls... it's about picking the box that is Gold Gold.
Letting you see the Silver Silver is the equivalent of the host opening a door with a goat. You're still left with the same scenario, keep your original box or switch.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:02 pm to Scooba
quote:Exactly, so you wouldn't be looking in it.
How so? It's not about picking balls... it's about picking the box that is Gold Gold.
quote:Or Silver/Gold. That's my point. When you first pick, you have a 33% chance of picking GG. You could have chosen SS in this scenario. So the host opens a door that isn't GG which could be either SG or SS. Then the 3rd door now has a 67% of containing GG so you switch.
Letting you see the Silver Silver is the equivalent of the host opening a door with a goat.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:02 pm to Scooba
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:04 pm to LCA131
quote:It's not one of out two.
I thought one out of two was just 50%?
Think of it this way. There are 3 boxes and two of them hold the same color balls. So you have a 67% chance of picking a box that contains the same color. As soon as you pull a ball out (gold or silver), there's a 67% chance that the second ball matches.
This post was edited on 7/24/18 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:06 pm to ell_13
Actually there is a 5/6 chance of picking another ball. What is that in percentages?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:09 pm to LZ83
You're either a really bad Lucas wannabe or a Lucas alter playing a worse version of yourself. 
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:10 pm to ell_13
quote:
Silver/Gold. That's my point. When you first pick, you have a 33% chance of picking GG. You could have chosen SS in this scenario. So the host opens a door that isn't GG which could be either SG or SS. Then the 3rd door now has a 67% of containing GG so you switch.
So if you picked silver on the first pick, what are the odds of getting gold on the second pick?
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:10 pm to ell_13
Nah, I’m neither.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:10 pm to LCA131
33%
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:11 pm to LZ83
quote:
Actually there is a 5/6 chance of picking another ball. What is that in percentages?
I think you just get five divided into six which would be 1.5.
So 1.5% But that seems low.
Posted on 7/24/18 at 2:12 pm to LCA131
I’m gonna have to re-read the thread now.
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