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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:08 pm to UpToPar
quote:this guy gets it
UpToPar
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:08 pm to ell_13
67
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:10 pm to PearlJam
Have y'all learned nothing?!?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:10 pm to PearlJam
quote:
well, we don't know which box we have, so it could be a gold ball left or it could be a silver. But we know when we pulled the first gold ball out, it was twice as likely to come from the box with 2 gold balls than from the box with only 1 gold ball.
You're right. Do you also agree that given the fact that your first pull is gold, these are the following was your pull could go:
Gold, Gold
Gold, Gold
Gold, Silver
Those are three distinct pulls, which is why the answer is 2/3.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:10 pm to slackster
quote:you're gonna have to double check that.
Assuming we pulled a gold ball, the chance of the next ball being gold is 80%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:10 pm to ell_13
5/8, retard.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:11 pm to slackster
Correct on your first pull. What started this debate was a poster saying there are 3 options on your second pull.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:12 pm to ThatMakesSense
quote:Neaux.
5/8, retard.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:12 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:Pretty much.
I am trying to think of a way using combinations:
Eliminating the obvious now [S,S] and adding the fact you have successfully chosen a G ball, You are left 3 choose 1 combinations (3 comb) in two boxes: [G1,G2], [G3,S].
The combinations are:
G1,G2
G2,G1
G3,S
2 out of the 3 combinations (67%) grant you a successful outcome.
Just call them G1, G2 for the double gold box and G3 for the one with the silver ball. We know we're picking a gold ball first, and it's totally random, so the odds of picking G1, G2 or G3 are equal.
Choose G1 - 2nd ball is G2, gold
Choose G2 - 2nd ball is G1, gold
Choose G3 - 2nd ball is the silver ball
2 outta 3
Another way to look at it is once you have one gold ball in hand, there are 3 balls left. 2 are gold, 1 is silver. 2 outta 3
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:12 pm to PearlJam
quote:
What started this debate was a poster saying there are 3 options on your second pull.
G1B1
G2B1
S1B2
Each of those is a unique possibility. This is why the answer is 2/3, it has nothing to do with any magical preloading of the next outcome on the first pull.
This post was edited on 7/23/18 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:13 pm to ell_13
quote:
Try again.
I miscounted. I added up the probabilities and divided by 5, not 6.
6 gold balls. 3 of them have 100% chance of next one being gold. 2 of them have 50% chance of next one being gold. 1 has 0% chance. 400%/6, ~67%.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:13 pm to CptRusty
quote:these 2 aren't unique. It is one or the other. There is only 1 ball in the box.
G1B1
G2B1
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:14 pm to PearlJam
quote:
these 2 aren't unique.
of course they are. Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:15 pm to CptRusty
About as simple as you can put it:
There are 3 gold balls total. You had a 67% of pulling a gold ball from box one and a 33% chance of pulling a gold ball from box two. End of discussion.
There are 3 gold balls total. You had a 67% of pulling a gold ball from box one and a 33% chance of pulling a gold ball from box two. End of discussion.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:15 pm to slackster
quote:Bingo! Same answer!!! haha
~67%
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:15 pm to PearlJam
quote:
Correct on your first pull. What started this debate was a poster saying there are 3 options on your second pull.
There are.
All we know is you picked a gold ball on your first pull. There are 3 gold balls, each of them have a different, distinct partner. If you agree there are 3 different combinations, how can you possibly disagree there are 3 possible outcomes given that ALL we know is that you've chosen a gold ball?
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:15 pm to CptRusty
I don't think you get it.
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:16 pm to RobbBobb
quote:Can you explain why if you run a simulation of this thousands of times, you land near 67% and not 50%?
No, No, No, No, No
Youre pulling a magicians trick by forcing a specific ball on me, but telling me I had three options to start with. I never had 3 options. By forcing the gold ball into my hand, you only allowed 2 options. It either came from the AG box or the M box. There never was the 3rd option of the AS box.
The probabilities are now strictly confined to whether I chose the AG box or the M box. It doesn't even matter what the next color I pull out is. I'm now limited to the only boxes that you allowed from the start, 2 (two). Its essentially flipping a coin at that point. It either turns up as box A or box B
Posted on 7/23/18 at 3:16 pm to PearlJam
quote:
I don't think you get it.
OK then answer this:
If you had a box with 3 gold balls, and another box with 1 gold ball and two silvers, what are the odds of pulling a second gold ball from the same box if your first pull resulted in gold.
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