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Posted on 1/16/22 at 3:02 pm to TDsngumbo
i say prairieville, im actually in SBR literally right next to the border so i consider myself in prairieville
Posted on 1/16/22 at 3:09 pm to trussthetruzz
Woah….
Posted on 1/16/22 at 3:13 pm to trussthetruzz
Posted on 1/16/22 at 3:23 pm to DVinBR
quote:
i say prairieville, im actually in SBR literally right next to the border so i consider myself in prairieville
Ahh ok!! I understand, I’m Prairieville but actually way more St. Amant than Prairieville. Just about every unincorporated are of northern Ascension is called Prairieville
Posted on 1/16/22 at 3:27 pm to Langland
quote:
National Weather Service New Orleans LA 251 PM CST Sun Jan 16 2022 .SHORT TERM... Tonight through Tuesday... Tonight, the upper level low is forecast to continue moving off the east coast of the US. Strong northwesterly flow will help to continue to advect cold and dry air into the region. Overnight lows tonight into Monday morning are forecast to be in the mid 30s to upper 30s. Most locations are not expected to touch freezing, but it will be close. Monday, northerly flow continues to advect cold and dry air into the region for another day. Upper level ridging will dominate the pattern. Looking at the models, rain is not expected Monday. Similar to Monday morning, the lows on Tuesday morning are forecast to be in the mid 30s and low 40s. Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will dominate the upper level pattern. Surface winds will shift from northerly to southerly during the morning hours, which will allow for the reintroduction of moisture and warm air into the region. Weak upper level divergence will allow for some lifting in the environment to occur as well. Based on the models and patterns, rainfall is not expected on Tuesday. MSW .LONG TERM... Wednesday through Saturday... Zonal flow will continue to dominate the upper level pattern Wednesday into Thursday. A shortwave upper level trough is expected to influence the area Wednesday into Thursday, enhancing rain chances for the area. Southerly surface winds will act to enhance warm air and moisture advection into the area, which will increase some instability in the environment. Upper level divergence will also help to enhance some lifting in the environment. Scattered to numerous showers will be possible Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning as the front moves through the area, looking at the current models. The main threats associated with the frontal system would be gusty sub- severe (30-60mph) winds and lightning. The models are still showing disagreement on the strength of the system and overall instability looks fairly limited based on the current models, but we will be watching how it develops over the next few days. Behind the front overnight Wednesday into Thursday, strong cold air advection will set up over the area, and northerly surface winds will help funnel the beginning of this cold air into the region. As a result, lows on Thursday morning area forecast to be in the upper 30s and low 40s, as cloud cover will help to moderate the temperatures some. Thursday and Friday, as the low moves off the east coast of the US, zonal flow will set up over the area. Northerly surface winds will help to enhance cold air advection and dry air advection into the region. Weak upper level convergence Thursday will help to increase the sinking and stable air in the environment. As a result, lows on Friday will be very chilly, looking at the models, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Strong cold air advection behind the front and a lingering low level cloud deck could cause some winter precipitation to develop. Some of the models are indicating the potential for some isentropic lifting continuing into Friday, while some, like the GFS, push the front offshore quickly. If the rain lingers longer over the area due to isentropic lifting, then there will be a better chance to see some winter precipitation. But the timing will be key for this to occur, and there are still a lot of uncertainties/disagreement in the models. On Friday, some weak upper level divergence associated with a weak upper level trough will help to increase some lifting in the environment, but strong northerly flow will keep temperatures below average with lows on Saturday morning forecast to be in the mid 20s to low 30s. Saturday, the models are very uncertain on the upper level pattern and timing of the different troughs. Looking at the general model consensus, a shortwave upper level trough is expected to influence the area, enhancing rain chances. Strong northerly surface winds will act to limit instability and moisture in the environment. Weak upper level divergence will act to enhance lifting in the environment. Overall, rain chances will be fairly low, given the uncertainty of the system and lack of moisture in the environment. It will be interesting to see how these patterns develop over the next week. MSW
Posted on 1/16/22 at 3:34 pm to udtiger
quote:
88
Lasted a couple of days
Snowed pretty good in Lafayette in late afternoon that Friday (most snow I can remember since I was a little kid in early 70s and it snowed pretty hard). It came back on Sunday a.m. but was gone by lunch time when the sun came out and melted it all away.
Someone mentioned '89, I remember that one well. Had to install 3 basketball goals in the ground a day or so before Christmas while working at Bell's Sporting Goods. The ground was so hard the post hole digger didn't work and we had to rent a auger. I think the high was 19 that day.
This post was edited on 1/16/22 at 3:36 pm
Posted on 1/16/22 at 3:43 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
2008 to present has been a golden era for snow in BR.
There's been more ice or minor now events than this but the last three major snow events in Baton Rouge are January 2002, December 2008, and December 2017. Those were the gold standards from my time in Baton Rouge.
Other smaller events were in Christmas 2004, December 2009, the January 2014 ice storm, February 2021.
But for straight up slammed with snow it's 2002, 2008, and 2017.
Posted on 1/16/22 at 4:46 pm to The Boat
It snowed 3 times in two winters from 2008 to 2010, and I think it snowed 12 February 2012, and also Dec. of 2017 and Jan of 2018. Plus, all the ice events.
Not all snows were measurable.
I say golden era because the 90s mostly sucked. We squeezed a little bit out of the ‘93 superstorm. That was my first memory of snow. It stuck to cars and roofs.
Not all snows were measurable.
I say golden era because the 90s mostly sucked. We squeezed a little bit out of the ‘93 superstorm. That was my first memory of snow. It stuck to cars and roofs.
Posted on 1/16/22 at 5:29 pm to bayoubengals88
Not in the right place on the low placement but that ain't a bad look at all.
Posted on 1/16/22 at 5:32 pm to Duke
quote:
Duke
If you had to guess, you think this amounts to anything over here on the Northshore?
Posted on 1/16/22 at 5:43 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
If you had to guess, you think this amounts to anything over here on the Northshore?
Best guess? No.
But there's actually a real chance this could hit. Enough that it has my attention.
Posted on 1/16/22 at 5:57 pm to Duke
quote:
Best guess? No.
Odds sure
quote:Yeah looks like the moisture will be there according to the models. What I can't figure out is that on the forecasts we aren't seeing a high % chance of rain and the temps seem borderline. Either way I will be watching for your updates. These damn local weather ppl are to chicken shite to discuss snow or winter weather. I guess they figure it happens so seldom here and everything has to be perfect they will just ignore the possibility and it will likely work out for them.
But there's actually a real chance this could hit. Enough that it has my attention.
This post was edited on 1/16/22 at 5:59 pm
Posted on 1/16/22 at 6:00 pm to Duke
quote:Are you in South Louisiana?
Duke
Posted on 1/16/22 at 6:01 pm to Ponchy Tiger
Try to follow Zack Fradella. He doesn’t ignore it like some
Posted on 1/16/22 at 6:14 pm to trussthetruzz
A friend just sent me the gfs showing 7” for EBR total accumulation…
Posted on 1/16/22 at 6:23 pm to Duke
quote:
But there's actually a real chance this could hit. Enough that it has my attention.
Posted on 1/16/22 at 6:29 pm to Duke
im optimistic 
Posted on 1/16/22 at 6:36 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Are you in South Louisiana?
No but will be in a week and a half.
Posted on 1/16/22 at 6:40 pm to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
These damn local weather ppl are to chicken shite to discuss snow or winter weather. I guess they figure it happens so seldom here and everything has to be perfect they will just ignore the possibility and it will likely work out for them.
I'm of the mind you don't forecast it yet, but you start discussing.
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