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Message
re: Snow Tease for Baton Rouge (Saturday) UPDATE (1/20)
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:39 am to Ponchy Tiger
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:39 am to Ponchy Tiger
This model sounding corresponds to the picture below it showing freezing rain and sleet. There's a big warm nose which is where the green dew point line that's on top of the red temperature line goes to the right of the red freezing line that I drew. You can't have that and get snow. That warm nose is going to melt anything that wants to freeze and it's going to fall as liquid rain. But it gets very cold at the surface so it will either refreeze as sleet before it lands or it will be cold enough at the surface for the liquid rain to freeze and coat everything with ice once it lands.
3
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:40 am to LSU-MNCBABY
It's still funny that we have wish casters in winter weather threads. Not you, Legend, or Duke.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:42 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Because after about 2,000 feet or so up, it’s gonna be well above freezing. No time for it to turn into snow but plenty of time to turn into sleet or just simply freeze on contact.
Once it melts it can't turn back into snow. Any warm nose at all at it will never reach the surface as snow.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 9:57 am to The Boat
quote:
Once it melts it can't turn back into snow. Any warm nose at all at it will never reach the surface as snow.
Right, that’s pretty much what I said
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:03 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Right, that’s pretty much what I said
quote:
No time for it to turn into snow but plenty of time to turn into sleet
It will never turn into snow close to the surface like it turns into sleet. Once it goes through a warm nose it will never turn back into snow. It has to start in the cloud as snow, fall as snow, and reach the surface as snow.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:14 am to The Boat
quote:
sleet before it lands or it will be cold enough at the surface for the liquid rain to freeze and coat everything with ice once it lands.
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This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 10:19 am
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:16 am to LaBR4
I can hear the pine trees cracking looking at that picture…. Won’t be able to leave the house if we get that much ice in these hills
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:23 am to The Boat
quote:
quote: No time for it to turn into snow but plenty of time to turn into sleet
It will never turn into snow close to the surface like it turns into sleet. Once it goes through a warm nose it will never turn back into snow. It has to start in the cloud as snow, fall as snow, and reach the surface as snow
Baw, that’s what I said! I never said it would have time to turn into snow. We’re saying the same thing
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:29 am to notiger1997
Regardless of the ice event it’s going to be cold, was just pointing out there’s entertaining options to watch whilst cooking and drinking at home.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:32 am to LSU-MNCBABY
Looks like it’s only going to be below freezing for a couple of hours then quickly get back to the 40s
Am I missing something as it relates to icy conditions (roads, trees) etc?
Am I missing something as it relates to icy conditions (roads, trees) etc?
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:34 am to lsupride87
quote:
Looks like it’s only going to be below freezing for a couple of hours then quickly get back to the 40s Am I missing something as it relates to icy conditions (roads, trees) etc?
It’ll be at or below freezing for much of Friday. You’re missing a good bit.
Gonna be a fantastic gumbo day.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:35 am to LSU-MNCBABY
The NAM just absolutely has a hard on for Sout Louisiana and S. Mississippi. You baws need to be pulling for the GFS solution.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:35 am to lsupride87
It's a fluid situation. The models can't find their arse with both hands right now so I wouldn't read too much into model temp 4 days out. Once you get ice on the ground it can do some frickery to the expected temperature by messing up the solar absorption.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:36 am to TDsngumbo
quote:Rain stops Friday morning
It’ll be at or below freezing for much of Friday. You’re missing a good bit.
Projected to be above 32 (getting to right at 40)from 8am until Friday evening
This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 10:37 am
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:36 am to lsupride87
quote:
Looks like it’s only going to be below freezing for a couple of hours then quickly get back to the 40s Am I missing something as it relates to icy conditions (roads, trees) etc?
A couple models keep us only getting just above freezing friday. There’s a potential for the ice to stay around if it happens. It’s harder to forecast a high temp with ice/snow on the ground
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:37 am to trussthetruzz
Gotcha. So it’s up in the air
This post was edited on 1/18/22 at 10:41 am
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:37 am to lsupride87
quote:
Am I missing something as it relates to icy conditions (roads, trees) etc?
It doesn't take long when ice starts piling up. I'm not convinced we will see what the NAM is showing (over an inch of freezing rain accumulation in places), but you certainly want to see a downtrend start with that.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:42 am to lsupride87
quote:
Rain stops Friday morning Projected to be above 32 (getting to right at 40)from 8am until Friday evening
You’re looking at the official forecast, baw. The official forecast won’t start bending to these model runs until they start being consistent and even then, they won’t bend a lot until the day or night before. We all know how this goes… same with hurricanes and winter weather. Model runs roll out, become more and more consistent, and the official forecast is slow to reflect the model output. It’s a process.
Posted on 1/18/22 at 10:48 am to TDsngumbo
The NAM looks bad, how accurate is that with winter weather? What do other models show this AM?
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