- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
0
Posted on 9/7/20 at 9:21 pm to dawgfan24348
How many flu deaths are only the flu?
Posted on 9/7/20 at 9:24 pm to ell_13
quote:
Article explaining the details further
Looking for some math help here. Quotes from the linked article:
quote:
Flu toll 1,000 – Covid toll 10,000
So, they matched up the one percent CFR of Covid with the incorrect 0.1 percent CFR of flu. Suddenly, Covid was going to be ten times as deadly.
If influenza killed 50, Covid was going to kill 500. If influenza killed a million, Covid was going to get 10 million. No wonder Congress, then the world, panicked. Because they were told Covid was going to be ten times worse than influenza.
So far so good..
quote:
They could see three million deaths in the US alone, and 70 million around the world.
Wait, what? CDC estimates that 34,200 people died in the 2018-2019 flu season. They haven’t released their official estimate for 2019-2020 but it should be similar based on the estimated range that they have released.
Last time I checked, 34k times 10 is 340k, not 3 million.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 9:47 pm to lostinbr
The last quote is if everyone in the country got it at the 0.1% rate they should have been using. It explains that.
What’s happening with Covid vs Flu deaths in reality is explained easily by how we count each. Covid illness/death has been hyper sensitive to the point where death certificates are scrutinized and cases are tallied daily. Flu illness/death has been greatly ignored to the point we have to make rough estimates for both. We don’t know how many people get the flu every year much less even close to an exact number of anyone who dies with the flu. It’s a CDC best guess where the rules are must stricter in calling a death of flu vs Covid.
What’s happening with Covid vs Flu deaths in reality is explained easily by how we count each. Covid illness/death has been hyper sensitive to the point where death certificates are scrutinized and cases are tallied daily. Flu illness/death has been greatly ignored to the point we have to make rough estimates for both. We don’t know how many people get the flu every year much less even close to an exact number of anyone who dies with the flu. It’s a CDC best guess where the rules are must stricter in calling a death of flu vs Covid.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 9:50 pm to castorinho
It’s okay. Some people are jack asses and that’s okay too. It’s not their fault they are dumb. Their mother was probably sucking dick for meth.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 9:58 pm to Gravitiger
shite sorry. I meant to send the RT link. here. inb4 PUTINREEEE
Posted on 9/7/20 at 10:01 pm to ell_13
quote:
the expert who, according to Brown, made the 10x error in testimony to Congress is, by now, well known to all of us. It was, needless to say, Anthony Fauci.
"error" my arse
Posted on 9/7/20 at 10:13 pm to ell_13
quote:
The last quote is if everyone in the country got it at the 0.1% rate they should have been using. It explains that.
Right, except that doesn’t make any sense in the context of the argument that article is making. The entire premise of the article is that Congress was incorrectly told that COVID would kill 10x as many as the flu. That would mean roughly 300-400k deaths in a year. Right now we are on track for just shy of 300k over 12 months. So while that estimate looks high, it’s not off by a factor of 10.
The flu doesn’t infect 100% of the population in a given year, so I’m not sure where the assumption that 100% of the population would catch COVID came into play. If it came from congressional testimony, then that’s the real story (not IFR vs. CFR). If it came from this Russia Today article, then that’s a pretty good sign that the article is BS.
quote:
What’s happening with Covid vs Flu deaths in reality is explained easily by how we count each. Covid illness/death has been hyper sensitive to the point where death certificates are scrutinized and cases are tallied daily. Flu illness/death has been greatly ignored to the point we have to make rough estimates for both. We don’t know how many people get the flu every year much less even close to an exact number of anyone who dies with the flu. It’s a CDC best guess where the rules are must stricter in calling a death of flu vs Covid.
I posted this in a previous thread but I think it’s worth repeating:
Here are recent CDC estimates for flu deaths:
2014-2015: 44,000 to 64,000 (estimate 51,000)
2015-2016: 17,000 to 35,000 (estimate 23,000)
2016-2017: 29,000 to 61,000 (estimate 38,000)
2017-2018: 46,000 to 95,000 (estimate 61,000)
2018-2019: 26,339 to 52,664 (estimate 34,157)
2019-2020: 24,000 to 62,000 (no estimate available yet from what I can tell)
CDC estimates flu deaths by extrapolating from a flu surveillance network that covers ~8.5% of the population and then applying fudge factors to account for variables like testing frequency. Meaning the number of lab-confirmed influenza deaths reported to CDC in a given year is at most about 8.5% of their estimates.
That means that for the 2017-2018 season, when CDC estimated 61,000 flu deaths, they likely used 5,000 or less actual lab-confirmed deaths (which, by the way, would have included the same comorbidities you see in the COVID data) to develop this estimate. If they reported COVID deaths the same way, people would lose their shite.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 10:25 pm to Strannix
quote:
Lol the CDCsaid exactly what I said it did, all of those deaths had complicating factors except 6%, sweet melt though homie
Actually, no, you’re wrong. You just don’t have the knowledge base to understand the data. You’re like a rat crawling across a page of text trying to make sense of the shapes.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 10:34 pm to Strannix
I think we way overreacted to COVID but that 6% doesn’t indicate what you think it does in that report.
Several of the comorbidities present in the remaining 94% shared a causal link with being infected with COVID.
Several of the comorbidities present in the remaining 94% shared a causal link with being infected with COVID.
This post was edited on 9/7/20 at 10:36 pm
Posted on 9/7/20 at 10:51 pm to Ross
quote:
Several of the comorbidities present in the remaining 94% shared a causal link with being infected with COVID.
Going beyond just that, 50% of the remaining 94% had ARDS (a form of respiratory failure directly related to the virus) as their only other diagnosis. Like I said, people even bring up up the 6% stat are only showing then don’t know anything about death certificates and formed an opinion with no knowledge. The knowledge is also easy to get as you can download the table in an excel spreadsheet from the CDC and look for yourself, so on top of being too ignorant to realize their ignorance and to unaware to realize they should defer to people who actually do this for a living, they’re lazy for not just taking 5 minutes to look for themselves.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 11:00 pm to TIGERSandFROGS
quote:
Like I said, people even bring up up the 6% stat are only showing then don’t know anything about death certificates and formed an opinion with no knowledge. The knowledge is also easy to get as you can download the table in an excel spreadsheet from the CDC and look for yourself, so on top of being too ignorant to realize their ignorance and to unaware to realize they should defer to people who actually do this for a living, they’re lazy for not just taking 5 minutes to look for themselves.
Are we talking about the same experts that list motorcycle crash deaths as China Virus deaths?
Those experts?
Or not those experts but other ones totally not making it up?
Posted on 9/7/20 at 11:03 pm to lostinbr
quote:
I think we botched the response to this virus, but anyone parroting this 6% talking point is suffering from a severe case of confirmation bias. Or they haven’t actually looked at the CDC data.
ding ding ding
Posted on 9/7/20 at 11:12 pm to YF12
quote:
Are we talking about the same experts that list motorcycle crash deaths as China Virus deaths?
Those experts?
Or not those experts but other ones totally not making it up?
Let me guess, your cousin’s, uncle’s, barber’s roommate died in a motorcycle accident and the family said the death certificate blamed COVID.
I call bullshite unless you, or anyone actually shows something concrete of that. Doctors don’t risk their medical licenses to falsify death certificates, especially for a reason that benefits them in no way.
Your post was so dumb I felt like it wasn’t worth my time to respond. Probably shouldn’t have but it’s already typed, so here you go you cretin.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 11:16 pm to TIGERSandFROGS
quote:
I call bullshite unless you, or anyone actually shows something concrete of that. Doctors don’t risk their medical licenses to falsify death certificates, especially for a reason that benefits them in no way.
I am sure the experts were on the case! Licenses in tow!
OOPS. They actually did this so you lose.
My favorite quote
quote:
“I don’t think so. I have to double-check,” Pino said. “We were arguing, discussing, or trying to argue with the state. Not because of the numbers -- it’s 100…it doesn’t make any difference if it's 99 -- but the fact that the individual didn’t die from COVID-19…died in the crash. But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash. I don’t know the conclusion of that one.”
https://cbs12.com/news/local/man-who-died-in-motorcycle-crash-counted-as-covid-19-death-in-florida-report
https://wsvn.com/news/local/florida/doubts-about-accuracy-of-covid-19-death-numbers-continue-as-mans-death-wrongly-attributed-to-virus/
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questions-raised-after-fatal-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-covid-19-death
https://www.tampafp.com/motorcycle-accident-victim-listed-as-covid-19-death-is-someone-getting-paid/
This post was edited on 9/7/20 at 11:24 pm
Posted on 9/7/20 at 11:20 pm to Klark Kent
Burn in Hell, piece of shite.
Posted on 9/7/20 at 11:25 pm to dawgfan24348
quote:
God it's amazing how some of yall take an article in your favor
Well there we have it. An avowed liberal acknowledging that an article claiming covid isn’t that deadly is “in [our] favor.” This article oughta be good news for anyone.
Liberals root for the virus.
Posted on 9/8/20 at 1:41 am to lostinbr
quote:
If they reported FLU deaths the same way they do COVID deaths, people would lose their shite EVERY YEAR.
FIFY
Posted on 9/8/20 at 1:50 am to ell_13
So .1% means we could expect 330k deaths.
We are at 200k basically.
How many more are going to realistically occur?
Did the lockdown help reduce the overall number?
Or did it hurt because we cant get to herd immunity as fast and prevent the vulnerable from getting it?
Are the tests too sensitive? Are they so sensitive that if you base opening up on testing numbers you might never open up?
We are at 200k basically.
How many more are going to realistically occur?
Did the lockdown help reduce the overall number?
Or did it hurt because we cant get to herd immunity as fast and prevent the vulnerable from getting it?
Are the tests too sensitive? Are they so sensitive that if you base opening up on testing numbers you might never open up?
Page 4 of 6
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News