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Started By
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re: Severe weather this weekend March 14-15
Posted on 3/11/25 at 2:11 pm to StringedInstruments
Posted on 3/11/25 at 2:11 pm to StringedInstruments
quote:
Am I reading that correctly? Nearly a 50% chance of at least one long track tornado forming?
I think what it technically shows is the percentages of the top 15 analogs (previous severe weather events) that produced at least one long-tracked tornado within 110km of a given point. Analogs being previous events that the model thinks are comparable to the upcoming event.
This post was edited on 3/11/25 at 2:12 pm
0
Posted on 3/11/25 at 2:17 pm to AHM21
Is there a CIPs analog for Friday/Friday night?
Posted on 3/11/25 at 2:21 pm to BPTiger
quote:
I may be the outlier but the thought of planning a drive time because of severe weather has never occurred to me.
I drove thru some pretty rough storms the week before the tornado hit Tuscaloosa going to Talladega for spring break. Looking at the reports now, an EF3 hit De Kalb Mississippi
I was white-knuckling that whole drive.
we stopped at a gas station diner somewhere in BFE Mississippi/alabama and the lady working was like "you boys are retarded for driving in this." they had the news on showing the tornados hitting.
I wouldn't recommend doing that.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 2:37 pm to East Coast Band
This is from one of the meteorologists who posts on James Spann’s Weather blog. Obviously his content is primarily focused on Alabama, but still noteworthy for everyone.
quote:
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the “enhanced risk” (level 3 of 5) of severe storms to cover almost all of Alabama Saturday. This threat level will likely continue to change in the coming days, the threat level could be increased and expanded more. I would not be surprised to see this risk get increased to a “moderate risk” (level 4 of 5) as we get closer to the weekend. Here is a reminder of what each risk category means and its the potential threats.
This post was edited on 3/11/25 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 3/11/25 at 2:56 pm to tiger91
quote:
driving home for a half marathon on Sunday
Running Zydeco half on Sunday? At least the weather Sunday is looking decent so far.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 3:55 pm to lsucm10
She is. It’ll be a good bit warmer than her last two so I’m hoping that she’s not expecting a pr but it would be a nice surprise for her!
This post was edited on 3/11/25 at 3:57 pm
Posted on 3/11/25 at 4:01 pm to AHM21
quote:
AHM21
Spann showed this same analog map in his afternoon weather briefing video. What’s noteworthy is that two of the analog dates/events are April 8, 1998 and December 16, 2000.
April 8,1998 produced a violent F-5 tornado that struck the western parts of the Birmingham metro/Jefferson County, killing 32 people.
December 16, 2000 produced a violent F-4 tornado that went through the southern part of the city of Tuscaloosa (a bit south of where the 4/27/11 tornado went), killing 11 people.
This post was edited on 3/11/25 at 4:02 pm
Posted on 3/11/25 at 4:06 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
December 16, 2000
Way too familiar with this one
Posted on 3/11/25 at 4:29 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
April 8,1998 produced a violent F-5 tornado that struck the western parts of the Birmingham metro/Jefferson County, killing 32 people.
Was that the one that hit Pleasant Grove? I remember riding out there a couple of weeks after with my dad and it looked like a nuclear bomb went off.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 4:30 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Wasn't that 2000 Tornado captured on the old skycam network?
This post was edited on 3/11/25 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 3/11/25 at 4:40 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Wasn't that 2000 Tornado captured on the old skycam network?
Yes.
The funny part now is palpable frustration they had with the tower cam operator.
This post was edited on 3/11/25 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 3/11/25 at 4:44 pm to East Coast Band
Lol yeah you can sense that frustration
Posted on 3/11/25 at 4:54 pm to East Coast Band
Just like always in time for the NCAA conference tournaments.
I remember that tornado hitting the Omni when Georgia was playing a game.
I remember that tornado hitting the Omni when Georgia was playing a game.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 5:04 pm to mwlewis
quote:
Was that the one that hit Pleasant Grove?
Oak Grove. Destroyed Oak Grove High School.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 5:05 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
Yes. The funny part now is palpable frustration they had with the tower cam operator.
Yep, back then the operator wasn’t in the studio with them. Spann and crew won an Emmy for that coverage, though.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 5:39 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Not liking those analogs at all, especially now that i own a house in bessemer lol
Posted on 3/11/25 at 6:45 pm to BPTiger
quote:
I may be the outlier but the thought of planning a drive time because of severe weather has never occurred to me.
I wouldn’t make a drive in a hurricane or blizzard but a rain storm?
It is more about just being aware and planning accordingly. Sometimes a "rain storm" is more than anyone bargained for.
Here is a worst case scenario, and one of the more notable examples of severe weather and traffic. It is a really well done mini-doc:
Posted on 3/11/25 at 6:59 pm to Thracken13
We might see the dreaded purple “high” rating the way this is trending. That’s a huge 30% area for 4-5 days out
Posted on 3/11/25 at 7:13 pm to LegendInMyMind
So … what does one do if they’re on say an interstate in a remote area (i55 in Mississippi has some really sparse spots) and you see a tornado???
Yes legit question as I have no idea.
Yes legit question as I have no idea.
Posted on 3/11/25 at 7:14 pm to tiger91
quote:
So … what does one do if they’re on say an interstate in a remote area (i55 in Mississippi has some really sparse spots) and you see a tornado???
I'd recommend not driving towards the tornado.
ETA: If you're in the scenario you described you can get out of it's way. You're not likely to be stuck in traffic.
Pro tip: If the tornado doesn't appear to be moving......it is coming right at you.
This post was edited on 3/11/25 at 7:16 pm
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