re: Severe Weather for Friday

The storm near Mount Pleasant/Naples, TX may be the first big hailer of the day. It has been going a while.

Looks like just after 7 AM when SE LA will get the squall line,

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from southeast Louisiana
eastward to the Florida Panhandle, and northward into Alabama and
western Georgia Saturday. Damaging wind appears to be the main
threat, but isolated tornadoes are also possible.

...Synopsis...

Within a broad synoptic upper trough a shortwave trough will move
from the middle MS Valley early Saturday into the OH Valley later in
the afternoon. A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough will
move along the Gulf Coast then northeast into the Carolinas by late
afternoon and evening. By 12Z Saturday a cold front will extend from
a low near St. Louis southwestward into the lower MS Valley and
southeast TX. A warm front will extend southeast from the surface
low through the TN Valley and Southeast States. The surface low will
lift northward to near the Chicago area by late afternoon while the
cold front continues east through the OH/TN Valleys and into the
southeast States. By early evening the warm front should extend from
the surface low southeast through the OH Valley and into the Middle
Atlantic area.

...Gulf Coast States...

It is likely that storms will have consolidated into an organized
squall line by 12Z Saturday with embedded mesovortices and bowing
structures. A few discrete supercells may also be ongoing ahead of
the line. These storms will be embedded within strong deep-layer
winds and accompanying intense (60+ kt) low-level jet associated
with the southern-stream shortwave trough. Effective bulk shear from
40-50 kt and large 0-1 km hodographs will support the potential for
scattered damaging wind and isolated significant wind damage as well
as a few tornadoes, as storms advance east through the moist and
moderately unstable warm sector across southern portions of the Gulf
Coast states during the day.

HEADS-UP for you Bama guys...

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For two reasons...

1 - any storms initiated along that boundary would have a bit of extra low-level torque

2 - as the line interacts with that boundary, it may offer an extra bump in surface-based lift, low-level shear, or both.

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He's right and I share his concerns. Storms getting rooted in a boundary are great way to get strong to violent tornados in otherwise not amazing tor environments.

The HRRR really wants to throw up a cluster into that region before lining up with the rest of it.

In general, the high wind threat is screaming out with the noontime guidance. About time to pull up the Mesoscale Analysis for the SE and bust out the GRLevel3 (my level 2 trial ended ) for watching this evening.

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About time to pull up the Mesoscale Analysis for the SE and bust out the GRLevel3 (my level 2 trial ended ) for watching this evening.

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Re-up, baw....I could use a log-in!

Anyone here know how the mPING Reports are made on RadarScope?

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Currently fishing out of the big boat at the Chandeleur Islands. What time is this supposed to hit? Did not realize it was going to be that big of an event and now I'm thinking we need to pick up anchor and start heading back.

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You have the risk of some pop-up storms throughout the day, I'm sure. Any those could go severe. You want no part of that line when it comes through in the morning. Not knowing much about the area, that's all I can really say.

Pretty stout storm Northeast of Jasper, AL.

I had some of the worst hail I can remember where I am north of Birmingham a little while ago. It was mostly small hail, but it was falling at a tremendous rate at one point. I did get some hail up to quarter size.