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re: Sally - Moving towards Georgia - Potential for Significant Flooding
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:02 pm to Duke
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:02 pm to Duke
Frederic was bad for Mobile but also bad in Ocean Springs which is strange considering how far west that was. I was young then but we had quite the mess after Frederic. Then Elena wrecked our shite again in 85.
0
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:02 pm to DhanTigers212
quote:
With these storms I have noticed you almost want to be the forecasted landfall when it’s like 5 days out.
Doesn’t always work that way, since the shifts west can be even worse, but yeah, as good as the NHC is on the whole, they’re not going to get it perfect very often.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:02 pm to rds dc
quote:
12z HWRF & HMON both show landfall near MS/AL border at about 960mb.
HMON has been on that kind of scenario for a while. Might be a nice little coup over the lauded HWRF.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:02 pm to rds dc
Levi talking RI
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:03 pm to LSURussian
Is this a bingo square? If not it should be
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:03 pm to DhanTigers212
Not always true at how the environment evolves. I remember on Irma the computer models had a general area nailed out almost a week in advanced. Some were hitting the eastern coast carving up through Georgia to the Carolinas but the miles on the error path was pretty accurate 7 days out. It shifted a little but they were pretty damn good at projecting that beast storm overall getting people plenty of time to prepare.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:03 pm to deltaland
It is
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:04 pm to Cosmo
B
I
N
G
O
I
N
G
O
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:04 pm to Cosmo
All the St. Bernard people on my facebook are starting to freak out, after that 1130 special advisory, they just keep seeing that '2" now on a map, and it getting realllly close.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:04 pm to rds dc
Ugh. The IR really makes it look like she’s moving more north to my untrained eye.
I wonder if she’ll make it as far west as that.
She looks pissed off.
I wonder if she’ll make it as far west as that.
She looks pissed off.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:05 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
Ugh. The IR really makes it look like she’s moving more north to my untrained eye.
I wonder if she’ll make it as far west as that.
Theyve said a stronger storm will turn north earlier for a while
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:05 pm to TigerNAtux
quote:
Ugh. The IR really makes it look like she’s moving more north to my untrained eye.
We have radar and recon. Don't try to track a center (especially one with no eye) with IR when you have much better methods.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:06 pm to beaver
Oh god damn it no
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:06 pm to TigerNAtux
Haha gahhh damn I just got downvoted to hell. I was genuinely curious about EBR because I hadn't heard much and didn't feel like reading all 100+ pages of people bitching about schools closing
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:06 pm to Cosmo
I was a kid during Frederick (family lived in Mobile) and we lived south of Tuscaloosa and were without power for weeks.
We headed to Mobile to help them out. Couldn't even get to my grandparents house due to so many trees down. All you heard were chainsaws for weeks.
We headed to Mobile to help them out. Couldn't even get to my grandparents house due to so many trees down. All you heard were chainsaws for weeks.
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:07 pm to PhillyTiger90
quote:
Cat 2 back on the table now? Or should it stay as a 1?
If it’s at 85 now then Cat 2 is almost a certainty based on conditions. I was hoping mid level shear could keep it in check some but appears it’s not.
I’d say Cat 3 is maybe on the table
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:07 pm to Cosmo
Some of the ensembles yesterday were showing a stronger storm potentially west too but yeah, that was on the table if it got stronger it would turn north sooner. I think even Levi mentioned that in his first video.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:07 pm to deltaland
Gotta love when people make light of potential deadly events before they happen
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:07 pm to Cosmo
She was 65 mph when I left for work and disorganized.
Now she’s 90+ and getting ramped up.
Amazing really.
Now she’s 90+ and getting ramped up.
Amazing really.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 12:08 pm to TigerNAtux
Yeah, it blew up in a matter of hours...
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