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re: River Flooding in the Ohio Valley coming to Louisiana in mid March
Posted on 2/27/18 at 10:30 pm to SoloTiger
Posted on 2/27/18 at 10:30 pm to SoloTiger
quote:
2011 levels won't be reached imo.
7 more years of sediment deposits though. The river bed is rising all of the time and is one of the primary factors why this flooding event that overwhelms the ORCS or a levee system in general is inevitable eventually.
1
Posted on 2/28/18 at 12:02 am to WizardSleeve
quote:
7 more years of sediment deposits though
And 7 more years of no diversion project to take full advantage of the sediment laden water.
Posted on 2/28/18 at 12:12 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
The only way BR ever sees MS River water flooding is through a terror attack on the levees
You just have me an idea of how to clean up BR
Posted on 2/28/18 at 1:57 am to X123F45
Well, it didn’t work in NOLA...
Posted on 2/28/18 at 12:30 pm to Marco Esquandolas
What's the latest with the river stages? I see where Arkansas, Tennessee, and north Mississippi are going to have excessive rainfall and flooding over the next 2 days and all that water is heading down through Baton Rouge. I just can't find any site with the forecast right now. Every site I check is down right now.
Posted on 2/28/18 at 12:32 pm to TDsngumbo
Posted on 2/28/18 at 12:35 pm to TDsngumbo
No change since yesterday. The rainfall today, depending on how much it misses over/under the forecast, will cause shifts in forecast by tonight/tomorrow most likely.
Red River Landing crests at 58' per forecast.
Baton Rouge targeting 41' still.
Red River Landing crests at 58' per forecast.
Baton Rouge targeting 41' still.
Posted on 2/28/18 at 12:39 pm to Duke
quote:
Baton Rouge targeting 41' still.
I still think BR goes to 42-43 when it's all said and done.
Posted on 2/28/18 at 2:34 pm to prostyleoffensetime
Baton Rouge official forecast crest at 42.5 ft now on 21-Mar
BATON ROUGE 35 32.9 +1.2 33.7 34.7 35.5 36.3 37.0 42.5 03/21A A.03/02P
BATON ROUGE 35 32.9 +1.2 33.7 34.7 35.5 36.3 37.0 42.5 03/21A A.03/02P
Posted on 2/28/18 at 2:40 pm to FutureMikeVIII
quote:
Baton Rouge official forecast crest at 42.5 ft now on 21-Mar
Wow - that's a whole foot and a half upwards from the last forecast update. I wonder if it'll eventually go to 44 or 45.
That uptick has got to have the ORCS officials' attention.
This post was edited on 2/28/18 at 2:45 pm
Posted on 2/28/18 at 2:47 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
That uptick has got to have the ORCS officials's attention.
I promise you they've got full attention already.
The big thing for BR and the still very remote possibility of opening Morganza currently is flow rate through BR more so than river stage.
Posted on 2/28/18 at 2:49 pm to Duke
quote:
The big thing for BR and the still very remote possibility of opening Morganza currently is flow rate through BR more so than river stage.
Why is that?
Posted on 2/28/18 at 2:54 pm to TDsngumbo
Integrity of the levees. The additional force of the moving water erodes the soil and raises the possibility of a breach in the levee.
1.5 million cubic feet per second through BR is the benchmark. They'll obviously divert more through the Old River first to drop the rate before considering Morganza.
1.5 million cubic feet per second through BR is the benchmark. They'll obviously divert more through the Old River first to drop the rate before considering Morganza.
This post was edited on 2/28/18 at 2:58 pm
Posted on 2/28/18 at 2:56 pm to Duke
quote:
1.5 cubic feet per second
Missing something here, right?
Posted on 2/28/18 at 2:58 pm to slackster
quote:
Missing something here, right?
A solid million somethings.
Posted on 2/28/18 at 2:59 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
flow rate through BR more so than river stage.
Are they not directly related?
Posted on 2/28/18 at 3:03 pm to slackster
1.5 million CFS through BR is what is allowable. This allows the Bonnet Carre remove it's designed flow of 250K CFS.
Meaning only 1.25 MM CFS passes New Orleans, which, as I understand it, is a harder ceiling than BTR.
Meaning only 1.25 MM CFS passes New Orleans, which, as I understand it, is a harder ceiling than BTR.
Posted on 2/28/18 at 3:07 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Are they not directly related?
Yes to a great extent, but depending on how much sediment as been laid down at the bottom over the years the same level won't necessarily be the same flow.
So instead of level to make decisions, they use a constant flow rate of concern.
quote:
Meaning only 1.25 MM CFS passes New Orleans, which, as I understand it, is a harder ceiling than BTR.
Good point right there.
This post was edited on 2/28/18 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 2/28/18 at 3:08 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Are they not directly related?
They are, flow is estimated based on stage, and a previously determined stage-discharge relationship, aka rating curve.
The rating curve at a gage station can and does change, but operationally on a day to day basis stage is measured and flow estimated.
Posted on 2/28/18 at 3:09 pm to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Are they not directly related?
Not necessarily, mainly due to the constant evolution of the river bottom.
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