re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

Gotta get my fish loaded before I get blown away

You should stop in an open area and livestream the conditions for us on the OT.

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Amy updates for BR area?

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My coffee is hot and my hot mess of a wife is sleeping next to me. I just had a banana for breakfast. The weather is hundreds of miles away right now.

Enjoy your coffee. I understand the storm is a ways off, just trying to make last min plans.

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Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A regional severe weather outbreak, including potential for strong tornadoes, is possible today into this evening over the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States.... A meridional upper-level system will move eastward across the southern Plains today as a complex mid-level jet structure moves northeastward out of the base of the upper-level trough. Ahead of the trough, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will strengthen across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and develop north-northeastward into Louisiana around midday. A broken line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at 12Z from southeast Arkansas extending southwestward across northern Louisiana and into southeast Texas. A moist and unstable airmass will be located to the southeast of this line of storms across much of the lower Mississippi Valley. Conditions will be very favorable for severe thunderstorms, especially with discrete cells that form and move east-northeastward across the moist airmass further to the south. Concerning the thermodynamic environment, model forecasts suggest that moderate instability will be in place over much of Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi by late morning, where MLCAPE should be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen during the morning as the low-level jet moves from the northwestern Gulf of Mexico north-northeastward into Louisiana. The low-level jet will be a key component for today's severe weather event. The current thinking is that the line of storms will move slowly eastward across northern and western Louisiana this morning. Discrete storms are expected to develop to the south of this line in parts of southern and central Louisiana. These storms should have a tornado, wind-damage and isolated large-hail threat. As the line moves eastward into northeast Louisiana and west-central Mississippi around midday, a chance for more discrete cell development will exist to the south across eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. RAP forecast soundings in eastern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi at 19Z have MLCAPE near 1800 J/kg, 0-6 km shear of 55 knots, and 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 400 m2/s2. This will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A regional tornado outbreak will be possible across parts of southern and central Louisiana and south-central Mississippi, where the potential for discrete cell development will be greatest. There are some limiting factors for a more widespread outbreak. Those include the following. 1) The progressive nature of the mid-level jet is forecast to be too slow 2) The warm sector is forecast to be pinched off to a degree 3) Instability is forecast to be less than ideal Even still, the low-level shear environment is impressive, and will support strong tornadoes. An EF3+ tornado will be possible across the moderate risk area. The line of thunderstorms ahead of the front will move eastward into the central Gulf Coast region late this afternoon and become more oriented from north-to-south. This should coincide with an increased wind-damage potential from late this afternoon into early this evening. As the line moves into southwest Alabama, the stronger bowing segments within the line could be associated with damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe threat associated with the line could affect areas across central and eastern Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle through mid to late evening.

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Looks to me like the typical setup is taking place. Central Louisiana and southern Mississippi get hammered and southeast Louisiana simply gets a linear mode with gusty winds and some small hail. It’ll probably last a whole hour and will be over with. East of New Orleans and it gets ramped up again with more tornadoes. That marine layer saves southeast Louisiana 90% of the time with these systems and it looks like the SPC is starting to hint at that in this outlook. Central/southern Louisiana gets hammered, it crosses the basin and forms a single line for SELA, then gets going again east of NOLA in Alabama.

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understand the storm is a ways off, just trying to make last min plans.

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You can’t really “plan” for this, per se. Just keep an eye and ear out in case it gets intense and be smart. Don’t drive in it and stay home.

Sounded like hail for a minute here in Houston (was in the attic) and rained it’s arse off. Other than that, we good

We got a good A bit of hail around lazybrook

My job includes driving around East and West Baton Rouge Parish today, crossing the bridge several times. My out of town bosses just think it’s gonna rain.

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We got a good A bit of hail around lazybrook

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Checking in. It was dicey for about 10 minutes. I was praying for my windows.

It's calm and quiet now. My street held up fine.