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re: powerball odds - help me win my argument - posted pg 8
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:14 pm to tigersint
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:14 pm to tigersint
I think your line of reasoning is correct. However, your post did get me thinking....
if, as you say, the odds are 300,000,000 to one, then that tells me that there must be 300,000,000 combinations of numbers.
now, since this lottery has gone so high, wouldn't it be a good deal to buy one of each number combination?...I mean, the lottery is 1.3 billion and I would think that it would be a pretty good return on your investment to invest 300 million for one day and get 1.3 billion in return...
if, as you say, the odds are 300,000,000 to one, then that tells me that there must be 300,000,000 combinations of numbers.
now, since this lottery has gone so high, wouldn't it be a good deal to buy one of each number combination?...I mean, the lottery is 1.3 billion and I would think that it would be a pretty good return on your investment to invest 300 million for one day and get 1.3 billion in return...
4
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:16 pm to MorgusTheMagnificent
I've always read that buying the first ticket increases your chances by the most significant margin - basically you go from a 0 percent chance to a 0.000000003 chance of winning. Purchasing additional tickets result in an almost unnoticeable increase in the chance of winning.
Interesting math - if you had $10 million to blow to buy 5 million tickets your chance of a winning combination is still only 0.017, roughly the same chance you have of dying in car accident during your lifetime.
ETA: And if the printing machine printed 1 combination every 1 second on average, it would take almost 60 days to print your tickets.
Interesting math - if you had $10 million to blow to buy 5 million tickets your chance of a winning combination is still only 0.017, roughly the same chance you have of dying in car accident during your lifetime.
ETA: And if the printing machine printed 1 combination every 1 second on average, it would take almost 60 days to print your tickets.
This post was edited on 1/11/16 at 10:21 pm
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:20 pm to dewster
quote:True. But with a payout so large, this is one of the few times there is a positive expected value, albeit a small one. So it is one of the times where buying a ticket is actually a logical choice.
Any person's chances of winning the Powerball are pretty much the same regardless of whether or not they buy a ticket.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:27 pm to Spankum
quote:
I mean, the lottery is 1.3 billion and I would think that it would be a pretty good return on your investment to invest 300 million for one day and get 1.3 billion in return...
It could be a crowded trade...
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:40 pm to tigersint
quote:
quote:
Basically the contestant is faced with 30 boxes at the beginning of the show and his goal is to pick the one with 1 million dollars ... So he has a 1/30 chance of picking right or a 29/30 chance of picking wrong ... The contestant goes through the show eliminating one box at a time .. At the end there are only his box and one box on the stage left ---- should he switch ... I said of course (and had a ton of people agreeing with me) .. Although in my heart I still think I was right some phd came in the thread and showed me the math to say in made zero difference
Intuitively, if you did pick wrong initially, avoiding the winning box 28 times in a row is incredibly unlikely, perhaps as unlikely as picking the winning box in the first place. So it's 50:50 at that remarkable end.
quote:
There is a case where if you have 3 doors (1 with 1 million dollars, 2 with nothing) and you chose door number 1 and you are shown one of the doors (say door number 2) that has 0$ in it you should switch to the other door.
This is because you had a 33% chance at the beginning, but now there is at least a 50% chance that door number 3 has the million, while door number 1 still has a 33% chance of having the million.
The Monty Hall problem has the host deliberately showing you a wrong door. This makes it like trading your one door for his two, and switching raises your chance of winning to 2/3. If Deal-Or-No-Deal worked like this, switching would raise your chances to 29/30.
Posted on 1/11/16 at 10:44 pm to Spankum
quote:
if, as you say, the odds are 300,000,000 to one, then that tells me that there must be 300,000,000 combinations of numbers.
There are 292 million possible combinations. If you were to purchase that many tickets, it would take over 9 years to print them all at a rate of 1 per second (if only using 1 machine). Crazy.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 1:06 am to PsychTiger
Does the Power Ball software only produce each number one time through quick picks?
Did all of the split jackpots in the past involve one (or none) quick picks and a bunch of people who just guessed the winning numbers?
If the quick pick software does not repeat numbers you would think that at least 300 million unique tickets were purchased for Saturday's drawing, yet not a one of them was a winner.
Did all of the split jackpots in the past involve one (or none) quick picks and a bunch of people who just guessed the winning numbers?
If the quick pick software does not repeat numbers you would think that at least 300 million unique tickets were purchased for Saturday's drawing, yet not a one of them was a winner.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 1:11 am to tigersint
the odds of me winning the Powerball are better than the odds of me reading all that shite in the OP....
Posted on 1/12/16 at 1:20 am to Spock's Eyebrow
quote:
Intuitively, if you did pick wrong initially, avoiding the winning box 28 times in a row is incredibly unlikely, perhaps as unlikely as picking the winning box in the first place. So it's 50:50 at that remarkable end.
Thank you for this explanation. I've never had a problem grasping the Monty Hall problem, but it has always been difficult for me to grasp why him knowing changes anything. I've read discussions on the topic to no avail, but this is a concise explanation that makes it easy to understand.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 1:22 am to AZTarheeel
That original post about QPs picking an "unused" combination is completely false.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 1:30 am to Spankum
quote:
.I mean, the lottery is 1.3 billion and I would think that it would be a pretty good return on your investment to invest 300 million for one day and get 1.3 billion in return
If you did this in NY, won and opted for the lump payout you would break even or lose money. The tax on it there is over 60%
Posted on 1/12/16 at 1:43 am to slackster
quote:
That original post about QPs picking an "unused" combination is completely false.
I appreciate your response, but either I have had too much bourbon or your answer is confusing.
Let me ask it another way. Is it possible for multiple people who purchase quick pick tickets to get the same number?
A yes or no answer would be ideal for my comprehension.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 1:51 am to AZTarheeel
To my knowledge the answer is yes. I'm sure the Powerball website has a clear answer too.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 2:19 am to slackster
quote:
OUR TAKE: QuickPick tickets are not controlled, and generally there's no comeback if you find duplicate numbers. The Powerball states this in their FAQ:
#3. If I buy a Powerball quick-pick ticket, can anyone else get those numbers?
A. Yes, more than one person can receive the same quick-pick numbers. Quick-picks are randomly generated by the terminal at the retailer and there is no central computer that is controlling their generation.
Looks like you are correct.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 2:52 am to tigersint
You really want to have a discussion on Bayesian statistics on the OT?
Where are the fricking titties. Jesus.
Where are the fricking titties. Jesus.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 4:31 am to tigersint
I believe in just buying one ticket. If it's meant to be it's meant to be, no sense in spending a bunch of $ on something with the odds so much against you.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 4:52 am to tigersint
quote:
I have taken alot of classes that had statistics in them while studying engineering.
I say that no matter what your numbers are, your odds are 1 in roughly 300Million.
Some people claim that playing the same numbers every week over the course of your life will help you to win the powerball because the variable of what numbers you will have does not change every week. It is true that statistics can get quite complicating with that many numerical odds involved. I still believe that your odds can not be changed because future statistics do not have anything to do with what numbers show up in the past. Sure, it is nearly impossible for you to win powerball 2 drawings in a row playing the same numbers again. The odds are 1/(300 mill * 300 mil).
So lets say i buy 2 powerball tickets, one for each of the next 2 drawings. The odds that i will win both powerballs are 1/(300 M*300M). But say i win the powerball on the first drawing. What are the odds that i win it on the 2nd drawing.
There is now a 1/300 MIL chance that i will win both powerballs since it already happened one time, so i am "halfway" to beating the odds.
But i also got to thinking. Can some numbers actually be better to play than other numbers. Sure, there is such a thing as a hot streak, where a number that comes up alot will come up again, and a number that has not came up in a while will eventually show up. But as i stated earlier, the past does not dictate statistics moving forward after that event already happend.
I even thought about this.
What are the odds that all 5 of the powerball numbers will be even or odd?
The odds are not very good that all 5 numbers will be all even or all odd. There is a better chance that 2 will be even and 3 odd or vice bersa according to the law of averages. (Slightly offset by the fact that there are more odd numbers than even numbers to choose from with the powerball numbers stopping at 69.)
The same can be said about all high numbers or all low numbers.
What is your opinion on this. Is there a strategy involved in playing the powerball to ever so slightly increase your odds?
Where do you get your weed? I'm asking for a friend.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 5:18 am to slackster
quote:
Thank you for this explanation. I've never had a problem grasping the Monty Hall problem, but it has always been difficult for me to grasp why him knowing changes anything.
Him knowing changes things because that first door that is opened will NEVER be the jackpot. Because he knows he will always pick another door besides the jackpot.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 6:04 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Literally just as sound as any other combination of 6 numbers, random or otherwise.
Not really. Probably lower equity value because of a higher split-pot chance in the equal chance you hit the jackpot.
If 1-2-3-4-5-6 hits, you are gonna be splitting that 1.3 billion 100+ ways. 12, 19, 20, 22, 39, 37 will be a much lonelier combination.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 6:08 am to TheSexecutioner
Back when Lost was popular if the #s off the hatch had hit you would have shared it with so many people you would have probably lost money.
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