Potential SVR WX Saturday Across Louisiana - Looks like Mostly a Northern Issue

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2019

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
AND THE ARKLATEX EAST TO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
There is a slight risk for severe storms from East Texas and the
Arlatex area eastward to Mississippi on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
An upper cyclone will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest
Saturday, with surrounding cyclonic flow to affect a broad area.
Meanwhile, with this low situated between a low crossing the
Canadian Maritimes, and another just off the West Coast, rather
sharp short-wave ridging will flank either side of this low -- both
upstream and downstream.

At the surface, an occluded/vertically stacked low initially
centered over Nebraska should reach the Mid Missouri Valley by late
afternoon, and then the Illinois/Wisconsin border area through the
end of the period. As the triple point of the occlusion advances
east across the Ohio Valley, the trailing cold front will shift out
of the southern Plains and rapidly eastward across the
Ozarks/Louisiana and then the middle and lower Mississippi Valley
area through evening. The front will then approach the west slopes
of the Appalachians through the end of the period.

...East Texas and the Arklatex region east to Mississippi...
A moist low-level airmass is expected ahead of the advancing cold
front, with 60s dewpoints possible as far north as Arkansas/western
Tennessee. However, weak low-level lapse rates and the likelihood
for little surface heating through existing cloud cover suggests
only meager surface-based destabilization.

Still, as the front advances into the relatively high theta-e
environment, showers and scattered thunderstorms -- possibly ongoing
over parts of northeast Texas early -- should increase with time.
With little expectation for cellular convection ahead of the frontal
zone, quasi-linear mode is expected.

However, a flow field characterized by weakly veering and strongly
increasing winds with height is expected across the warm sector. As
such, any stronger updrafts could acquire rotation, and thus some
risk is evident for a couple of supercells -- embedded within a more
linear band of storms. Along with locally damaging wind gust
potential with the convective band's passage, a tornado or two will
also be possible -- particularly in the vicinity of northern
Louisiana/far southern Arkansas, pending evolution of surface-based
or near-surface-based CAPE during the afternoon.

Storms will move quickly eastward across the Gulf Coast states
overnight, while diminishing in intensity -- resulting in a gradual
wane in lingering severe risk.