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Posted on 6/8/18 at 9:16 pm to deltaland
Nevermind
This post was edited on 6/8/18 at 9:17 pm
Posted on 6/8/18 at 9:18 pm to deltaland
fricking OT slacking
Posted on 6/8/18 at 9:19 pm to Pectus
quote:Congrats
First page
This post was edited on 6/8/18 at 9:26 pm
Posted on 6/8/18 at 9:25 pm to deltaland
Foley cancels games just to be safe.
Posted on 6/8/18 at 9:42 pm to Bayou_Tiger_225
quote:
Each GFS run pushes it farther west. Personally I don't pay much attention to the GFS. Last year the Euro was much more accurate, and as of now it shows nothing.
GFS sniffed out Alberto first and had it going into the FL panhandle when Euro insisted on Louisiana.
Posted on 6/8/18 at 10:00 pm to deltaland
Posted on 6/8/18 at 10:19 pm to deltaland
So are we gonna die or what?
Posted on 6/8/18 at 10:47 pm to dkreller
quote:
So are we gonna die or what?
It all depends what PJ predicts.
Posted on 6/8/18 at 10:51 pm to Jim Rockford
Gfs also flip flopped multiple times between central Florida, Louisiana, mobile and the panhandle. It also had Alberto becoming a category 2 so it far from nailed the forecast
Posted on 6/8/18 at 10:58 pm to deltaland
Happy Hour GFS:
There is an atmospheric wave moving from the Pacific to the Atlantic called a Kelvin Wave. It has been shown that Kelvin Wave passage can increase the chances of development for a tropical system. The GFS loves to spin up systems with KWs. The models are also showing a powerful EPAC system and typically we won't see a strong EPAC and a system in the Gulf. I remain highly skeptical of the GFS, regardless of how many runs it shows a storm in the Gulf.
There is an atmospheric wave moving from the Pacific to the Atlantic called a Kelvin Wave. It has been shown that Kelvin Wave passage can increase the chances of development for a tropical system. The GFS loves to spin up systems with KWs. The models are also showing a powerful EPAC system and typically we won't see a strong EPAC and a system in the Gulf. I remain highly skeptical of the GFS, regardless of how many runs it shows a storm in the Gulf.
Posted on 6/9/18 at 12:36 am to rds dc
He has spoken
Posted on 6/9/18 at 12:42 am to deltaland
this is crap. I got plans 
Posted on 6/9/18 at 1:02 am to rds dc
00 GFS flipping LA the bird. Still nothing from EURO though.
Posted on 6/9/18 at 1:37 am to deltaland
LIT
Posted on 6/9/18 at 1:58 am to rds dc
quote:
typically we won't see a strong EPAC and a system in the Gulf. I remain highly skeptical of the GFS, regardless of how many runs it shows a storm in the Gulf.
Posted on 6/9/18 at 4:24 am to Ripley
Could use the rain.
Posted on 6/9/18 at 5:41 am to Maytheporkbewithyou
I was in the gulf last week, this could have happened to me
Posted on 6/9/18 at 8:31 am to GeeOH
If it means we have wind, rain and temperatures in the 80’s I’ll take it!
Posted on 6/9/18 at 8:54 am to tke_swamprat
From NWS NOLA this morning:
quote:
When we last left off, our GFS generated cyclone has transitioned from a
Florida landfall, to an upper Texas coast landfall, and back to a
central Louisiana landfall near Terrebonne Parish. Let`s look at
what we DO know.
1. Current satellite imagery shows a large expanse
of high level shear from Central America through the western
Caribbean Sea into Cuba. This is a strong inhibitor for any
development in the short-term.
2. GFS continues to generate a closed circulation as a result of
an ITCZ disturbance that emerges from Colombia into the Pacific
Ocean south of the Panama Canal Zone, then migrates it north
through the week.
3. ECMWF and CMC models show just open wave feature of no
consequence traversing the periphery of the Bermuda ridge during
the week. While this is still a weaker, less concerning
solution, it is now an acknowledgement to some tropical energy
coming from the ITCZ. Something that has been lacking until now.
4. No discernible feature is noted as a seedling candidate, at
least as the GFS is attempting to depict, despite a pretty active
ITCZ from western Venezuela through the eastern Pacific, which
currently has active Hurricane Aletta.
5. The GFS has now shown a tropical cyclone targeted in the Friday
15th to Saturday 16th range for at least 12 consecutive model
runs.
HYPOTHETICALLY, and in the far too early to predict category, IF
the GFS is on to something, a perfect prog deterministic forecast
shows a 973 mb minimal category 2 hurricane making landfall in
lower Terrebonne Parish. This would potentially produce a storm
surge around 8-9 feet along the LA coast and potentially 3-5 feet
in the tidal lakes. The GFS continues to be discounted at this
time for the reasons given above, but trends are being closely
monitored. 24/RR
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