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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:13 am to lsu13lsu
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:13 am to lsu13lsu
quote:I don't think anyone here puts 100% trust in the numbers out of China, slackster included. In fact, I've seen several posts of his where he basically ignores most of the China numbers and focuses on the ones from the rest of the world.
Which has been one of the criticisms on this board of your opinions. The numbers are not able to be trusted. Changing the criteria is a good method of how people muddy up statistics. Many knew they were going to be doing that.
I am more than sure that when/if the rest of the world starts putting out concerning numbers, then AND ONLY THEN will slackster change his tune. Which is the rational and logical way to view this whole thing.
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Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:14 am to jackwoods4
quote:
NEW: Beijing orders residents returning to the city to self-quarantine for 14 days
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:21 am to lsu13lsu
quote:
Which has been one of the criticisms on this board of your opinions. The numbers are not able to be trusted. Changing the criteria is a good method of how people muddy up statistics. Many knew they were going to be doing that.
I've said for two weeks now we could completely ignore China and focus on the rest of the world if you'd like. Like it or not, the numbers outside of China are mundane.
For example, yesterday a paper was posted that said the R0 was 4.6-6.7 based on cases doubling ~2.3 days. That's scary, but it needs context. It has taken the entirety of February for cases to double in the US. We had our 7th case on 1/31 and our 14th was yesterday. I believe we've only had one human to human transmission in the US so far, but I could be mistaken.
Point is, if you don't trust the third world statistics, there are plenty of first world reports that are promising.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:23 am to slackster
Yeah, I'm not saying it won't get bad here. That's certainly a possibility. But most international students and people who traveled for Lunar New Year did so roughly 3 or more weeks ago. I was honestly expecting more cases here by now.
This post was edited on 2/14/20 at 9:24 am
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:24 am to slackster
quote:
there are plenty of first world reports that are promising.
Don’t look at those or you’re considered a sunshine pumper.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:28 am to slackster
quote:
I've said for two weeks now we could completely ignore China and focus on the rest of the world if you'd like. Like it or not, the numbers outside of China are mundane.
The big problem with wait and see is when a worse virus comes out of China. If our plan is let's wait and see then we are screwed.
You happily posted china trends when it fit your narrative but now are like I don't trust them let's look outside china.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:31 am to slackster
quote:Well, y'all are all crazy.
We spent the night arguing about US ICU beds being overrun when there are 15 total cases in this country for frick's sake.
quote:Like the person that prepares for every thunder storm like it is a Cat5, I dont think they really want to see the devastation brought by a huge storm, some people are just wired differently
It's the pandemic version of wish casting, and it rightfully deserved to be called out as the stupidity it is.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:31 am to lsu13lsu
quote:
The big problem with wait and see is when a worse virus comes out of China. If our plan is let's wait and see then we are screwed.
The US definitely isn’t waiting, as they have banned people from entering the country who have been in China within the last two weeks. Other countries have started to follow suit.
The issue will be when people from other countries, like the Japanese guy earlier in this thread, get it and then come to the US.
It’s unrealistic to halt all international travel, but will the US begin to target certain regions with bans. Like Singapore and their growing cases... Who knows
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:34 am to lsu13lsu
quote:
You happily posted china trends when it fit your narrative but now are like I don't trust them let's look outside china.
I posted Chinese trends, and will again, when they were using a consistent criteria. Some days were better than the trend line, some were worse.
You want me to discuss the trend when Hubei dumped who knows how many days worth of clinically confirmed cases in one report. That would be dumb. Surely you understand.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:35 am to lsu13lsu
quote:And if we shut the world down every time something comes up that we don't understand yet, then we're screwing ourselves.
The big problem with wait and see is when a worse virus comes out of China. If our plan is let's wait and see then we are screwed.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:40 am to Korkstand
quote:
And if we shut the world down every time something comes up that we don't understand yet, then we're screwing ourselves.
The World or China? The market would fix it pretty quickly. China would stop having these issues or manufacturing etc would move out of there. People would quit relying on them. My guess is they would clean up their act.
But, I also guess it is better for the global economy to have an additional "flu" season that shuts schools and workers down for weeks at a time every year in perpetuity.
This post was edited on 2/14/20 at 9:41 am
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:42 am to slackster
if we can’t trust China we should be more conservative, not less.
It’s not spreading here because we are controlling it to an extent. At some point the influx of new cases can’t be controlled.
For the life of me I can’t understand why you think a respiratory virus would be more transmissible in China but not here. The flu starts in the East every year and it’s just as infectious here as it is there.
The lack of cases in the US doesn’t say anything about the contagiousness of the virus. It speaks to our ability to quarantine and monitor individuals. An ability that can be easily over run when the number of imported cases reaches critical mass.
It’s not spreading here because we are controlling it to an extent. At some point the influx of new cases can’t be controlled.
For the life of me I can’t understand why you think a respiratory virus would be more transmissible in China but not here. The flu starts in the East every year and it’s just as infectious here as it is there.
The lack of cases in the US doesn’t say anything about the contagiousness of the virus. It speaks to our ability to quarantine and monitor individuals. An ability that can be easily over run when the number of imported cases reaches critical mass.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:47 am to lsu13lsu
quote:What's the difference?
The World or China?
quote:I don't think you quite understand how large a role China plays in everything. It would be a decades-long event to move a significant portion of Chinese production elsewhere. And it would be costly.
The market would fix it pretty quickly. China would stop having these issues or manufacturing etc would move out of there.
quote:Just that simple, huh? You think you can just tell a billion people to stop being poor?
People would quit relying on them. My guess is they would clean up their act.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:54 am to lsu13lsu
quote:
Changing the criteria is a good method of how people muddy up statistics. Many knew they were going to be doing that.
Now you are adding an insidious spin on it.
They didn’t change to criteria to what was beneficial to them (how can you see the numbers of the past few days and think that?
) They mirrored the prevailing definitions of other countries for consistency of reporting when tracking this on a global scale.
Conversely, the numbers didn’t change radically enough to justify the earlier cries of “actual counts are 10 times as bad!”
Posted on 2/14/20 at 9:56 am to Volvagia
quote:
They didn’t change to criteria to what was beneficial to them
It was beneficial to them. They were able to come a little more clean on what was really happening but look like they were hiding nothing from rest of world. They were able to save face which is all China cares about.
"Hey just a little criteria change, we were not hiding anything. We promise!"
This post was edited on 2/14/20 at 9:58 am
Posted on 2/14/20 at 10:00 am to Korkstand
quote:
I don't think you quite understand how large a role China plays in everything. It would be a decades-long event to move a significant portion of Chinese production elsewhere.
It already started with the Tariffs. Companies are completely rethinking China. Which everyone said would kill the global economy. This virus is only going to push more out of china.
Posted on 2/14/20 at 10:02 am to lsu13lsu
But.....the actual reported numbers didn’t change.
Just the labels.
A pile of suspected cases/deaths moved to being attributed.
They were publicly clear how harshly they were excluding confirmed cases from the start so the only people who were foolishly acting like China was claiming to say that confirmed cases were the only cases simply because that was the only numbers they saw in a superficial skim of twitter posts and headlines.
Just the labels.
A pile of suspected cases/deaths moved to being attributed.
They were publicly clear how harshly they were excluding confirmed cases from the start so the only people who were foolishly acting like China was claiming to say that confirmed cases were the only cases simply because that was the only numbers they saw in a superficial skim of twitter posts and headlines.
This post was edited on 2/14/20 at 10:03 am
Posted on 2/14/20 at 10:05 am to lsu13lsu
"Hey just a little criteria change, we were not hiding anything. We promise!"
Dude. THEY DIDNT COME UP WITH THE DEFINITION THEY SWAPED TO.
It’s kinda hard to make the point you are making unless you want to assume it’s a global conspiracy to get together and use a definition for themselves but one that China can later use to safe face if they want to.
Dude. THEY DIDNT COME UP WITH THE DEFINITION THEY SWAPED TO.
It’s kinda hard to make the point you are making unless you want to assume it’s a global conspiracy to get together and use a definition for themselves but one that China can later use to safe face if they want to.
This post was edited on 2/14/20 at 10:08 am
Posted on 2/14/20 at 10:09 am to PeteRose
quote:
9 more infected in Singapore, totaling 67.
8 people on that cruise ship in serious condition.
Singapore has what is considered a top tire healthcare system and the weather is warm there making it a good yardstick for this event.
Unfortunately, the cruise ship is an "experiment" that should produce a lot of data.
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