re: Pending home sales fall to the lowest level in 26 years

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but inspections aren’t looking good

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This is a growing footnote that’s slowing down home sales. Things are expensive, marketing is strange right now, and many people are getting shite work done to their homes because they’re either trying to save money or don’t know any better. I see a LOT of homes that are in nice neighborhoods but neglected

Correct, most inspectors have no clue what they are doing and I have witnessed several performed by individuals who have no idea what they should be looking for. An electrical or HVAC inspection performed by an actual contractor are worth the money if you have concerns.

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Another factor that might also lower prices is the number of deportations. A million people leaving the US, even if they didn't own homes and lived in apartments, creates elasticity in the overall housing market. When rent prices drop, home prices usually follow

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I know this should track but it's honestly weird

Almost 7.5% of all homes are vacant and another 2.5% are seasonly vacant

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There are approximately 14.5 million to 15.6 million vacant or unoccupied housing units in the United States, which accounts for roughly 10.1% to 10.4% of the country's total housing stock according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and tracking from Macrotrends.

Breakdown of Unoccupied Homes

Not all vacant homes are abandoned or neglected. The U.S. Census Bureau divides vacant units into distinct categories:
• Seasonal or Recreational Use: Roughly 4.7 million units are vacation homes, cabins, or occasional-use properties (such as second homes or short-term rentals).
• Available for Rent: Around 2.6 million units are actively vacant and on the market for renters.
• Available for Sale: Fewer than 800,000 units are actively listed on the market for home buyers.
• Other Vacancies (Transitions, Repairs, Estates, or Abandoned): The remaining roughly 5 million to 6 million units are vacant due to legal/estate holds, ongoing renovations, being sold or rented but not yet occupied, or falling into disrepair in lower-demand areas.

State Vacancy Highlights

• Highest Vacancy Rates: States with heavy vacation and second-home markets—such as Maine (~20.6%), Vermont (~19.4%), and Alaska (~17.6%)—lead the country in overall vacancy percentages.
• Lowest Vacancy Rates: States with high housing demand and dense primary populations—such as Connecticut (~7.0%) and Washington (~7.3%)—have the lowest vacancy rates.

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Another odd fact is that there are only about 700k homeless people in the country which I would have sworn was higher.

But back to this, there is already a large number of vacant units that should have driven prices down IMO irregardless of the immigration issues