Osterholm Update 9

To anyone on her that wants to stay informed on Covid-19 and the science and medicine I strongly recommend you get the Osterholm weekly update. No bullshite just the facts like dragnet and intelligent hypothesis from one of worlds leading experts.

Here is a summary of episode 9

He believes that we are still in the second inning of a battle with Covid 19, As he describes this being the end of the first Waze. However, he emphasizes that some Innings may last longer than others just like in baseball this has been a long one.

We still don’t know what pattern this virus is likely to take, wether this is going to be an influenza pattern and return in mass in the fall, will just burn out etc. whether there will be there by multiple waves, just a few etc
No one knows, but It has behaved in an influenza like pattern this far.

Models are all wrong, as models are always wrong they are just used to plan. Unless you have DEVS machine then you are going to be off.

Most of county is probably between 5 to 15% infected with some areas like NYC maybe New Orleans above 20%. We are a long way from getting to herd immunity.

With the vaccines It’s like we are watching the beginning of the Kentucky derby And all of the horses for a possible vaccines. We don’t know what the winner will be, way too early to tell. Most of announcements are just telling us they have a horse in the race now.

Kids have always had multiple system responses to some vaccines and it is clear we are having the same thing with Covid -19. The response is very similar to Kawasaki disease.
We don’t fully understand the mechanisms involved and nothing we can really do about it.

We need smart testing, not just mass testing. Some of rest are so inaccurate as to be dangerous. (The White House test as an example.) We can’t test our way out if this.

On a positive, The new study out of South Korea confirmed what he has been saying and that people are not getting reinfected with Covid-19 but the PCR analyses is just picking up pieces of dead virus and stems. They tested 281 people that were still showing up as positive by PCR analysis by doing cultures and none of them had an active Transmittable COVID-19 infection.

Additionally, he agrees that you were much less likely to catch COVID-19 outdoors due to wind, environmental factors etc as long as you don’t Congregate in large groups and practice good common sense social distancing.

He recommends getting outside taking a walk and try to be nicer to each other. Turning this into another Civil War isn’t doing anyone any good.

Osterholm update 9