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Message
re: On the back side of Alligator Bayou...Parish ordered evacuation (Aug 15th)
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:31 pm to BamaFanInTigerland
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:31 pm to BamaFanInTigerland
quote:
I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see how it stops until it gets to at least 13.5'. With everything else being 15'+, it all has to equalize.
That's what I think too
But what if Manchac drops below flood stage before AB and SL hits the real high mark? Does the flow just up and reverse to the Amite or continue to flow into AB and SL?
1
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:35 pm to LSUaFOOL
But what's the way "out" of the whole system? Does it bleed its way to Maurepas? Or is everyone going to be holding their breath for billions of gallons of water to evaporate?
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:37 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
Or is everyone going to be holding their breath for billions of gallons of water to evaporate?
Zika cesspool
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:38 pm to BRIllini07
Bluff swamp through the locks to manchac to amite to lake Maurepas to pontchatrain to gulf
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:38 pm to BamaFanInTigerland
Yeah 13.5 is reasonable. Maybe only 13 since the Amite is falling at a pretty good clip.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:38 pm to LSUweights
quote:
But what if Manchac drops below flood stage before AB and SL hits the real high mark? Does the flow just up and reverse to the Amite or continue to flow into AB and SL?
It'll reverse and go back to the Amite if it's falls equal to or lower than AB/Bluff.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:42 pm to Capt ST
quote:
Woman just said she was told it's supposed to rise thru Friday
Just for shits and giggles I plugged in the Bluff Swamp gage data from the last 3 days @ 2:00PM into a parabolic function solver and it spit out that the maximum water height would be 12.98 ft @ 5:15 AM on Friday morning. That is roughly another 5" of rise from here, but depending on how quickly it recedes water may still pour over the road through the weekend.
This post was edited on 8/17/16 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:43 pm to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
Bluff swamp through the locks to manchac to amite to lake Maurepas to pontchatrain to gulf
Got it, I will now go ahead and deduct 3 IQ points from myself for not figuring that out to begin with.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:45 pm to BRIllini07
Shouldn't you add 3, since you just learned it?
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:48 pm to Taxing Tiger
quote:
Thoughts on photo above? That's less flow than earlier this week. It's definitely going down.
Are all of these photos being taken from the same spot? I ask because it looks like there is more white water in the background.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 3:50 pm to slackster
I doubt it.
I want to see it at the locks. Wish we had a live feed there.
I want to see it at the locks. Wish we had a live feed there.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 4:00 pm to DownshiftAndFloorIt
Yep, that's what I want to know. Just looking for a glimmer of hope.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 4:04 pm to DownshiftAndFloorIt
I can say that some of the lower elevations of the swamp on LSU's AG Flood Map tool show a 3.4 foot base ground elevation. A lot of it is at 5 feet.
Clicking on Manchac/Alligator Bayou Rd. (It changes names depending on where you are) it varies but is around 11-13 feet. At least that's what it's saying.
Makes perfect sense why it has kept flooding into there.
Clicking on Manchac/Alligator Bayou Rd. (It changes names depending on where you are) it varies but is around 11-13 feet. At least that's what it's saying.
Makes perfect sense why it has kept flooding into there.
This post was edited on 8/17/16 at 4:06 pm
Posted on 8/17/16 at 4:05 pm to Taxing Tiger
The rise has slowed pretty good on the Ridge... at least at the house. Take note I'm on the highest natural ground.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 4:05 pm to BamaFanInTigerland
quote:
Alligator/Manchac was 12.55' @ 2p. (.36"/hr)
Bluff Swamp was 12.58'@ 2p. (.24"/hr)
Eighth drop at Bayou Fountain (15.01').
Alligator/Manchac was 12.57' @ 3p. (.24"/hr)
Bluff Swamp was 12.59'@ 3p. (.12"/hr)
Eighth drop at Bayou Fountain (15.00').
Dawson/Ward dropped 1.08'/1.32". Manchac @ Little Prairie dropped 1.68" (16.72')
Posted on 8/17/16 at 4:07 pm to slackster
quote:
Just for shits and giggles I plugged in the Bluff Swamp gage data from the last 3 days @ 2:00PM into a parabolic function solver and it spit out that the maximum water height would be 12.98 ft @ 5:15 AM on Friday morning.
I plugged in the water heights from the Amite River @ Bayou Manchac near Little Prairie for the last 1.5 hour increments and the parabolic function would cross the previous one for Bluff Swamp at 11:30 tomorrow morning, when the Bluff Swamp and Bayou Manchac @ Little Prairie are both calculated to be at 12.90 ft.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 4:11 pm to slackster
quote:
Just for shits and giggles I plugged in the Bluff Swamp gage data from the last 3 days @ 2:00PM into a parabolic function solver and it spit out that the maximum water height would be 12.98 ft @ 4:30 AM on Friday morning. That is roughly another 5" of rise from here, but depending on how quickly it recedes water may still pour over the road through the weekend.
According to the updated forecast (after the gauges worked again). Amite/Bayou Manchac should between 8 and 10 feet by 4:30 AM on Friday.
It should drop below where Bayou Manchac/Alligator Bayou are running at later tonight. That will at least give that water a second way out rather than just flowing over the road.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 4:14 pm to slackster
That would be the peak correct? I would imagine the flow would then begin to turn and we may see signs of the water going down later in the day as it flows back to the Amite. Hopefully the parishes are ready to get this thing pumping as soon as it makes that turn. The locks are going to need a lot of help to get the water back out.
Posted on 8/17/16 at 4:19 pm to StinkBait72
Chinook still dropping bags on Wbrz live video. Black Hawk helping also.
News cast states they are bagging the Manchac side to keep it from retuning back into Manchac when it returns. Likely to make sure the other half the road doesn't take the same damage.
News cast states they are bagging the Manchac side to keep it from retuning back into Manchac when it returns. Likely to make sure the other half the road doesn't take the same damage.
This post was edited on 8/17/16 at 4:22 pm
Posted on 8/17/16 at 4:20 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
According to the updated forecast (after the gauges worked again). Amite/Bayou Manchac should between 8 and 10 feet by 4:30 AM on Friday. It should drop below where Bayou Manchac/Alligator Bayou are running at later tonight. That will at least give that water a second way out rather than just flowing over the road.
The only forecast I can find is for the Amite @ Bayou Manchac Point and it is still projected to be @ 13.1 feet at 7:00AM CDT tomorrow morning, which is still higher than the Bluff Swamp gage will likely be reading.
If you see my updated response with the information on Bayou Manchac @ Little Prairie, they would appear to intersect @ 11:30AM tomorrow morning @ 12.90ft, which is inline with the forecasted height from the NWS.
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