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Message
re: Oil dive deepens to 12-year low; could hit $20 on China fears
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:17 am to slackster
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:17 am to slackster
quote:
A good chunk of the issue is oversupply, but the more recent downturn is due to waning global demand fears. Ask yourself on what planet is a decrease in oil demand a good thing? Exactly.
Although there are different forces at play, it is similar to being excited that you could buy a house relatively cheaply in 2008 while ignoring the economic slowdown that existed all around you.
0
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:18 am to bcoop199
quote:
why with gas prices being low for some time haven't we seen the economy doing better?
Oh man...
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:21 am to KG6
quote:I wasn't giving a specific blueprint. I was clearly just responding to his inquiry regarding HOW Ohio's economy is diverse. I've never seen a thread with so much miscommunication.
I love your examples of what diversify to. Half are not going to help the states economy. They are all internal.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:24 am to jlu03
Wednesday at 9:30AM could be a very important time for the price of oil. The weekly oil inventory numbers are reported and if there is a large build then oil could breakthrough many technical levels and plummet tomorrow.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:27 am to jlu03
Just like it comes out every other Wednesday?
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:29 am to yellowfin
quote:
Just like it comes out every other Wednesday?
Yep but as I stated we are close to breaking through technical levels.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:37 am to cave canem
quote:
By the way this
quote:
but the more recent downturn is due to waning global demand fears
is complete BS
No, no it is not. The fall from $100 to $40 is mostly on the back of oversupply concerns as 2015 was one of the highest years for demand in history. However, the additional tumble it has taken in 2016 is due to rising fears of a slowdown in China. You can spin that as additional oversupply concerns, but that would be disingenuous - the heart of the current 15% slide is almost universally due to China.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:37 am to jlu03
What do technical levels even mean?
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:40 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
What do technical levels even mean?
It means he's just another O&G employee who is acting like he went to college for economics.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:41 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
What do technical levels even mean?
When discussing oil they usually refer to nice, round numbers that are mental hurdles for investors. The theory is that breaking below $30 would be a blow to the psyche of long investors and they would be incentivized to get out of oil, thereby providing additional downward selling pressure.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:42 am to Oates Mustache
quote:
What do technical levels even mean?
Based purely on historical price levels and analyzing trend lines, either positive or negative. It is done by looking at ceilings and floors of charts and trend lines of a stock or commodity. Based purely on price, nothing to do with demand or geo-political influences.
This post was edited on 1/12/16 at 7:43 am
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:46 am to glassman
Heck it got pretty close. $30.41 low last night.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:48 am to Oates Mustache
LINK
Here is a short video on today's technical level.
It's difficult to see technical levels on oil prices today as the price hasn't been this low in quite some time. There is most likely support at $30 but if the price breaks through that price level then we could drop rapidly as the next support level is mid 20s.
Here is a short video on today's technical level.
It's difficult to see technical levels on oil prices today as the price hasn't been this low in quite some time. There is most likely support at $30 but if the price breaks through that price level then we could drop rapidly as the next support level is mid 20s.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:48 am to slackster
quote:
However, the additional tumble it has taken in 2016 is due to rising fears of a slowdown in China. You can spin that as additional oversupply concerns, but that would be disingenuous - the heart of the current 15% slide is almost universally due to China.
It has nothing to do with overflowing tanks in Cushing and the fact that every vessle that can hold oil is being pressed into duty as floating storage, just irrational fear of lower demand.
Watch what happens when the inventory report comes out tommorow if you think the last week was bad. Short term the only hope is that the emergency OPEC meeting calls for cuts but that aint happening yet. The bleeding is about to get much worse for some I fear.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:50 am to cave canem
quote:
OPEC meeting calls for cuts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 7:53 am to 13SaintTiger
quote:
It means he's just another O&G employee who is acting like he went to college for economics.
Well you got me on the O&G employee. Didn't graduate with economics but took many classes on it. I've been actively trading in the market since I was 11 years old so I've had some experience with reading technical charts. Although I don't base my investing decisions purely on that ideal.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:11 am to KG6
quote:
I love your examples of what diversify to. Half are not going to help the states economy. They are all internal. A health care industry is not going to bring much money into the state for example. It may employ people, but if the state isn't bringing money into the economy, they aren't getting paid well. Technology??? That's quite vague. Farming is another one you can't just flip a switch on. My family are sugar cane farmers. They do well, but they are established. Not an easy industry. Finance is the same as healthcare. No money coming into the state, no money to pay for that.
That is one of the dumbest things I have ever heard. No one to pay for healthcare? Healthcare is an industry in own right, and somebody will always pay for it. In fact, the oil industry only accounted for ~4% of Ohio's economy, and the health and bioscience industries accounted for ~15% of Ohio's economy. LINK
Cleveland Ohio is home to the Cleveland Clinic and other health companies that create jobs and attract ppl come. Then you add in research $$$ and healthcare is a big industry. It is not just going to the doctor and getting a shot.
quote:LINK
Ohio hospitals generate more than $26.6 billion annually in economic activity and directly
employ 247,633 Ohioans. Hospitals are the backbone of Ohio’s thriving health care sector,
employing nearly 28 percent of Ohio’s health care workers and making up 34 percent of the
annual payroll of the health care sector.
During a time when the state suffered a 6.6 percent loss in the total number of jobs1 statewide,
Ohio hospitals experienced a 26 percent increase, creating new jobs for 50,927 Ohioans
between 2000 and 2013.
Hospital and health care jobs generally require advanced education, skills and training, thus
providing excellent salaries and benefits that support Ohio families. Each year, Ohio hospitals pay
approximately $15.9 billion in direct wages, salaries and benefits to support hospital employees
and their families.
In Houston, oil and gas makes up 10.6% of the workforce, and healthcare makes up 10.1%. Then on a nation level healthcare is a $2.9trillion/yr industry. It is also poised to grow because ppl will be needed to comply with the new regulations, added paperwork, medicaid expansion, and everything else invovled with the ACA (please keep political views out of this, there is a board for that) hospitals and the healthcare industry is hiring left and right. LINK
So discounting the healthcare industry because someone else pays the insurance premiums is as dumb as discounting the oil and gas industry because someone else purchases the fuel.
This post was edited on 1/12/16 at 8:12 am
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:19 am to WeeWee
i think you missed his point, unless the citizens were previously leaving the state for health care building a new hospital is just keeping up, not diversification.
It is not that healthcare is not an industry, it is that it brings no new money in, the money was already in the state.
It is not that healthcare is not an industry, it is that it brings no new money in, the money was already in the state.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:33 am to cave canem
quote:
term the only hope is that the emergency OPEC meeting calls for cuts but that aint happening yet. The bleeding is about to get much worse for some I fear.
I got news chief, OPEC doesn't even exist anymore.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:34 am to cave canem
quote:
i think you missed his point, unless the citizens were previously leaving the state for health care building a new hospital is just keeping up, not diversification.
It is not that healthcare is not an industry, it is that it brings no new money in, the money was already in the state.
That is why I included the stuff about the research. Research is mostly from outside funding sources. Then you add in the amount of people that go to cities like Cleveland or Houston for specialty healthcare. People from all over the US go to the Cleveland Clinic for healthcare because it is #1 in cardiac care. On a more local level think about how many cancer patients in the south go to MD Anderson. Then you add in the $$$ from foreigners coming to the US for health tourism US is a top10 health tourist destinations, and there is alot of outside money in the healthcare industry. There is a reason why every state is trying to copy Cleveland and Houston and create "biomedical districts".
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