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re: Oil dive deepens to 12-year low; could hit $20 on China fears

Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:30 am to
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18419 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:30 am to
quote:

what exactly is your area of expertise so we know when to pay attention?


Healthcare (which is rarely bought up unless on the political board where it's just a bunch of ACA talk) and some behind the fence military stuff (I try to avoid conversations dealing with that). I know jack shite about O&G but it's not too hard to tell when someone else is full of shite.
This post was edited on 1/12/16 at 9:45 am
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18419 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:32 am to
quote:


Trolling message boards with authority


So I'm a troll because I point out that many of the posters in this thread are firing from the hip pretending to be economic experts? Okay.

quote:

World of Warcraft leveling services.


Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3362 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:32 am to
You right. I heard the newscaster say yesterday how a war with Iran and Saudi Arabia is bad for oil. Nothing makes sense anymore with oil.
Posted by cave canem
pullarius dominus
Member since Oct 2012
12186 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:32 am to
quote:


Surprised there wasn't an upward bounce on that news.


Both UAE and Saudi deny meeting will occur.
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3362 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:36 am to
quote:

I know jack shite about O&G


quote:

I point out that many of the posters in this thread are firing from the hip pretending to be economic experts


Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18419 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:37 am to
And I'm the troll
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26632 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:38 am to
quote:

Both UAE and Saudi deny meeting will occur.



Well it's not being made up out of thin air. Maybe it won't happen, but the push is only going to get stronger if we fade off into the $20's. Both UAE and Saudi Arabia are hemorrhaging money right now.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
46002 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:38 am to
quote:

let me guess, you are in the medical industry?


Yes, and that is how I know the idea of new money coming in vs money already in the system is bs. It is all money. You don't have to produce something physical (i.e. oil or steel products) to have a diversified economy. You just have to produce $$$ in multiple areas.
Posted by yellowfin
Coastal Bar
Member since May 2006
99043 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:42 am to
So you're a doctor?
Posted by 13SaintTiger
Isle of Capri
Member since Sep 2011
18419 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:44 am to
quote:

So you're a doctor?


PA
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3362 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:50 am to
I wouldn't think OPEC waits too much longer before they cut. My guess would be before May.
This post was edited on 1/12/16 at 9:58 am
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91874 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:55 am to
quote:

Production is still outstripping demand in thee real world, it is not a concern it is a fact. Not sure where you are getting your info from.




I know this. Everyone knows this. This has already been factored in to the price of oil. I'll try to be more clear. The new/current downward pressure on prices is a result of weakening global (mostly Chinese) demand. That waning demand will lead to further oversupply, but it's not as if unforeseen supply increases are driving down prices.
Posted by KG6
Member since Aug 2009
10920 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:57 am to
quote:

A good hospital or biomedical district brings in tons of outside $$$. Not only in patients from other states coming in because of the perception that they are the best, but because of research funding. The "big shots" in research get the most funding because that is just the way the system works. Ohio State and Case Western brought in over $214million in research from just the NIH. I get what you are saying about the outside money, but that is not the way the healthcare industry works. Then you get into investments ($226million for Cleveland in 2012)There will always be outside money (i.e. medicare, research) and even if there wasn't there is nothing (depending on the insurance plan) to keep Louisiana residents from going to Cleveland or Houston instead of Shreveport or NOLA or vice versa. There is no inside or outside money with healthcare it is just money.



I think you seriously underestimate the scale of economy associated with oil. My single product line for an oil field company brought in nearly 200 million in revenue last year. That is a small subset of the overall offerings of my company. And that is only one company. And we aren't even an operator. The scale of money brought into Louisiana from oil is massive. I agree that some money can come from Healthcare. But it cannot begin to replace what comes from energy

Yes Houston does have a great medical infrastructure. But it cannot remotely hold this towns economy up (not that it's expected to since the goal we are talking about is diversity). Houston has improved its diversity, but ultimately this town is carried by O&G.
Posted by ShaneTheLegLechler
Member since Dec 2011
63747 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 10:01 am to
quote:

Houston does have a great medical infrastructure. But it cannot remotely hold this towns economy up (not that it's expected to since the goal we are talking about is diversity). Houston has improved its diversity, but ultimately this town is carried by Oil


Things have improved a lot since the last crash, but it will get pretty rough here with $20-30/bbl for any prolonged period of time. There have been quite a few planned real estate projects put on hold already here that I've heard about from friends in real estate. The medical industry is great here, and there's the downstream stuff, plus companies like United and HP have huge offices here, but there is certainly no denying what drives everything in Houston

I don't know as much about South LA to comment
This post was edited on 1/12/16 at 10:02 am
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3362 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 10:13 am to
Oil has now given up its #gainz from this morning and has turned lower. 20's are possible before end of the day.

Analysts at Barclays, Macquarie, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Standard Chartered and Societe Generale all cut their 2016 oil forecasts this week, with Standard Chartered saying oil could fall as low as $10 per barrel.

I call BS on the $10/Barrel but then again I didn't think we would see the 20's.

Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26632 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 10:16 am to
The current Saudi regime has no idea what they're about to do.

This is going to be a disaster globally.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
46002 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 10:21 am to
quote:

I think you seriously underestimate the scale of economy associated with oil. My single product line for an oil field company brought in nearly 200 million in revenue last year. That is a small subset of the overall offerings of my company. And that is only one company. And we aren't even an operator. The scale of money brought into Louisiana from oil is massive. I agree that some money can come from Healthcare. But it cannot begin to replace what comes from energy

Yes Houston does have a great medical infrastructure. But it cannot remotely hold this towns economy up (not that it's expected to since the goal we are talking about is diversity). Houston has improved its diversity, but ultimately this town is carried by O&G.




No I am not underestimating the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry had a $1.2trillion economic impact on the US economy in 2011. However, you are underestimating the impact of healthcare. The US spent $3trillion last year.

quote:

Yes Houston does have a great medical infrastructure. But it cannot remotely hold this towns economy up (not that it's expected to since the goal we are talking about is diversity). Houston has improved its diversity, but ultimately this town is carried by O&G.



That is one of the most simple minded statements in this thread. O&G employs 9.9% of the Houston workforce or 107,900 people in Houston. Healthcare employs 318,000 people in Houston. Neither industry can support Houston and Houston doesn't run on one industry. It runs on them all and it takes them all to make Houston. If Houston ran on O&G it would be NOLA and not Houston.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
481222 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 10:21 am to
yes this is scary shite overall

locally, Louisiana is frickED.

nationally, oil and tech were the 2 industries propping up our failing economy. oil is declining and the big investment money is going to rush into tech, which is already a bubble. we're about to see a mega bubble form in tech and when that pops...

internationally i have no idea what's going to happen. perhaps this leads to a forced scale back of funding terrorism abroad
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
45426 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 10:25 am to
Good news. We finally won't be over paying for a product. O&G companies need to live within their means like the rest of us.
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3362 posts
Posted on 1/12/16 at 10:26 am to
Here we go... Oil at $30.27 and declining quickly.

Can't wait to get out the oil industry.
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