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re: Official Thread: Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:04 pm to
Posted by EventHorizon
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
1054 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:04 pm to
I don't think they confirmed that it was pre-programmed. Just that the computer was used to make the turn (i.e pre-programmed OR entered at the time of the turn)
Posted by Dam Guide
Member since Sep 2005
16715 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

Also, authorities have 100% confirmed (As far as I have read) that the "Turn" to which the plane took was pre-programmed into the system.

The guy proposing this theory says that they did that to try to make an emergency landing. Wouldn't they be manually controlling the plane and not relying on programming in turns if they were in an emergency?


This one actually makes sense.

It's easy to punch a turn into the computer and can be done fairly quickly, faster than executing the turn. If they are trying to resolve an issue with another system, they can quickly punch in a turn and have the autopilot make the manuevers for them while they get back to resolving the issue instead of having to maintain focus on the turn throughout the manuever.
This post was edited on 3/18/14 at 1:06 pm
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
84887 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:04 pm to
quote:

Also where is the plane? Why is someone hiding a plane that made an emergency landing?


In his defense, his theory assumes that they passed out during the turn/attempt to abort and auto pilot took them into the Indian Ocean.

But again, WTF would they be using auto pilot or pre-progamming movements in an emergency?

So they have enough time to do that, but not put out a mayday?
Posted by Traffic Circle
Down the Rabbit Hole
Member since Nov 2013
5017 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

Also, authorities have 100% confirmed (As far as I have read) that the "Turn" to which the plane took was pre-programmed into the system.

The guy proposing this theory says that they did that to try to make an emergency landing. Wouldn't they be manually controlling the plane and not relying on programming in turns if they were in an emergency?


Kind of shoots down the pilot looking for a safe airport theory.

Also, fire does not just 'appear.' There is such a thing as smoke, and it starts small, where you can smell it, but not see it, and grows.

It's a leap to say the smoke just instantly disabled everyone on board.

There would have been any number of distress calls.
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
84887 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

they can quickly punch in a turn and have the autopilot make the manuevers for them while they get back to resolving the issue.


So all the other electronics have limited them from communicating, SOS, etc... But they are going to rely on the computer system to fly the plane?



Im not saying this all didn't happen, it just makes 0 sense to me.
Posted by Dam Guide
Member since Sep 2005
16715 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:09 pm to
quote:

So all the other electronics have limited them from communicating, SOS, etc... But they are going to rely on the computer system to fly the plane?

Im not saying this all didn't happen, it just makes 0 sense to me.


This goes back to the post I made about the issues with this theory. He is saying that a fire on board took out a number of systems to do this, but there was still enough electrical to use autopilot and the fire didn't cause a structural failure prior to the plane running out of gas (remember it flew for another 7.5 hours.)

I don't know enough about the fire suppression system or the redundancy of the electrical systems and their locations on the 777 to even begin to say if this theory is plausible or not. That would take an experienced 777 engineering team to determine if it could happen.
This post was edited on 3/18/14 at 1:13 pm
Posted by NoSaint
Member since Jun 2011
12674 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

Im not saying this all didn't happen, it just makes 0 sense to me.


I could see how it could go either way depending on finer points I am (and I'm guessing you are) clueless about.

Edit: what DG took the time to type more extensively above, essentially
This post was edited on 3/18/14 at 1:13 pm
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
84887 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

That would take an experienced 777 engineering team to determine if it could happen.


Agree... But you would think if his theory was truly plausible, one of the dozens of other 777 pilots who have been interviewed regarding the situation would have mentioned it.

Instead, like I've repeated over and over again, all you hear is that this plane had so many redundancies that technological failure could not have happened.
Posted by The Mick
Member since Oct 2010
45106 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:18 pm to
quote:

So all the other electronics have limited them from communicating, SOS, etc... But they are going to rely on the computer system to fly the plane?

Im not saying this all didn't happen, it just makes 0 sense to me.
The transponders and other tracking equipment have nothing to do with autopilot. Each system has its own breaker basically.

ie - you can still watch tv in your living room or have lights in your kitchen if the outlet in a bedroom tripped the breaker.
Posted by EA6B
TX
Member since Dec 2012
14754 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

It's not like it can fly undetected into American territory.


I keep hearing this, but we do not have continuous land based radar coverage of the coast of the U.S. There are several significant gaps that could be exploited by someone that knew what they were doing. They would probably be picked up, but it would but too late to be reached by scrambled fighters before they hit a major coastal city. The military quit worrying about coastal air attacks when ICBMs became the major threat. Since 9/11 more focus has been placed on this type of attack, but the odds of detecting one is a long way from 100%.
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
84887 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

The transponders and other tracking equipment have nothing to do with autopilot. Each system has its own breaker basically.

ie - you can still watch tv in your living room or have lights in your kitchen if the outlet in a bedroom tripped the breaker.



But if this theory is true and they were soooo panicked that they didn't try to get out communications via another means.... They had enough faith that even though all the other systems had failed, the auto-pilot would definitely work.
Posted by The Mick
Member since Oct 2010
45106 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

keep hearing this, but we do not have continuous land based radar coverage of the coast of the U.S. There are several significant gaps that could be exploited by someone that knew what they were doing
And where are these gaps you speak of?
Posted by The Mick
Member since Oct 2010
45106 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:21 pm to
Im not judging the theory, Im just saying the autopilot could easily have been working even though other systems were down.
This post was edited on 3/18/14 at 1:22 pm
Posted by Dam Guide
Member since Sep 2005
16715 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

The transponders and other tracking equipment have nothing to do with autopilot. Each system has its own breaker basically.

ie - you can still watch tv in your living room or have lights in your kitchen if the outlet in a bedroom tripped the breaker.


You got a fire eating away your house slowly turning off your lights in each room and your TVs. Do you still want to be in that house and is the house still gonna be there in 7.5 hours?

The big question is does the house have sprinklers (some sort of suppression system) to contain the fire where it is at and the rest of the house is fine except you killed everyone with smoke/depressurization and made sure all the phones were dead as soon as they noticed the problem.
This post was edited on 3/18/14 at 1:25 pm
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
84887 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

Im just saying the autopilot could easily have been working even though other systems were down.


I agree it could work, but I'm just thinking logically here...

"Oh shite, theres a fire, we've got major issues.... the transponder isn't working and we can't contact the tower... Lets throw on the auto-pilot"
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
69997 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:31 pm to
You are a navy guy right?

Wouldn't we have naval ships constantly on patrol on the eastern seaboard running radar? Not saying there aren't gaps but the only way I see a 777 hitting a major us city from the ocean is if it was a planned flight.
Posted by Traffic Circle
Down the Rabbit Hole
Member since Nov 2013
5017 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:32 pm to
Boeing has good fire suppression systems on board a 777.

LINK
Posted by Napoleon
Kenna
Member since Dec 2007
74168 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

It's a leap to say the smoke just instantly disabled everyone on board.

There would have been any number of distress calls.



this. a pilot would report smoke immediately.

Posted by WestlakeTiger
San Antonio, Tejas
Member since Feb 2012
9495 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:40 pm to
look for air force bases on the coast. also look for naval air bases.

I don't know about the air force, but looking at our flight line at this second, we have 0/50+ F18's that are air/air capable.

it will take over 30 min minimum to get those 18's loaded with live ordinance and launched for A/A warfare.

This post was edited on 3/18/14 at 1:44 pm
Posted by austintigerdad
Llano County, TX
Member since Nov 2010
1884 posts
Posted on 3/18/14 at 1:41 pm to
quote:

Boeing has good fire suppression systems on board a 777
horseshite.

A family member who is a 777 captain shared at least one personal experience that sounds horrifyingly similar to the fire scenario that's being explored.

In this particular case, he was lucky and smart enough to isolate and shut down the panel where smoke was detected before things got out of hand.

But he had to stop his less experienced first officer from taking an action that could very well have downed the plane.
This post was edited on 3/18/14 at 1:43 pm
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