re: Official Harvey Observation Thread

12z Euro is back in the Gulf at 72hrs.

What's that mean rds?


Also thank you so much rds, your postand viewpoints in these storm threads has been instrumental over the years. Much appreciated

Harvey is now a 60kt Tropical Storm.

Nvm you answered while I was typing.

Thanks

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2nd landfall SW of Houston. This is basically opposite of the 12z GFS.

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Euro is sticking to that NE then N solution.

GFS continues to bury it in south central TX.

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The euro nor the gfs has been better than the other for this storm so nobody knows what the hell is going to happen

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we've been essentially using a blend of the two for our forecasts, which has been making them pretty much southeast Texas bullseyes

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The euro nor the gfs has been better than the other for this storm so nobody knows what the hell is going to happen

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Meh, the intensity has been wrong, but the Euro has pretty much nailed Harvey's location up to this point.

The 12z Euro on Monday had Harvey here @ 144 hours:



Which is pretty much the exact location it will be over the next 24 hours.

Has Ryno posted in here? I know houses on his street were hit with the Sienna tornado. One street over from him got torn up pretty good.

it's really interesting to see when models stick to a solution, then divert to another solution, only to return to the previous solution. It happens a lot, especially with ensemble models. If you look back at the euro ensembles... several of the members never let go of a second landfall solution.

This kind of thing is a big reason that meteorologists usually don't drastically alter their forecasts between releases, even if models would otherwise indicate a shift.

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Has Ryno posted in here? I know houses on his street were hit with the Sienna tornado. One street over from him got torn up pretty good.

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He's doing OK. His house fared better than others just down the street.