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Message
re: Odds of guessing a card back to back?
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:27 pm to theantiquetiger
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:27 pm to theantiquetiger
But what are the odds of rolling 10 on consecutive rolls? it isn't 1:38.
0
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:27 pm to theantiquetiger
Just leave statistics to those who know what they're doing.
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:28 pm to theantiquetiger
Are you sure he couldn't just see the card?
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:30 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:
On a roulette table, there are 38 numbers (with 0 & 00).
The odds of rolling a 10 is 1:38. The odds of a 10 being rolled on next spin is still 1:38 because the spins are independent of each other.
In the world of math and probability they are not independent of each other. That's like saying well I lined up 38 lightning rods in a storm and since the first strike hit pole number 12 clearly pole number 12 is the heavy favorite for strike number 2
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:31 pm to white perch
quote:
You got the correct answer in 3 minutes. OT doing work tonight.
I may be a crude perverted frick but I know some math.
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:31 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:
t's what happened. I didn't ask them to guess what two cards I am about to take out of the deck, I asked him to guess a card I just picked. When he got it correct, I bet him he couldn't do it again, and he did.
I know. Yes, the odds of picking the correct card in one isolated attempt is 1:52.
But you are talking about going 2-for-2. That's what makes the odds much lower.
If you really want to see what I mean. You and your friend can try and see if it only takes you about 50 tries to pull off the same feat again.
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:33 pm to theantiquetiger
Then he beat 1:2704 odds, and he beat an idiot
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:33 pm to white perch
quote:
(1/52) * (1/52) = you're answer
Your intellect!
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:34 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:what are you talking about?
I still believe it is only 1:52 because the picks are independent of each other.
They're each 1/52, but to pick BOTH its What's been already pointed out 1/52^2
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:34 pm to Sampson
So, I'm thinking statistically, it is 1:52
But the probability is 1/52x1/52
I don't know. I hated statistics, I am an Algebra type of guy.
But the probability is 1/52x1/52
I don't know. I hated statistics, I am an Algebra type of guy.
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:36 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:
So, I'm thinking statistically, it is 1:52
But the probability is 1/52x1/52
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:37 pm to theantiquetiger
This is not a statistic. It is a probability.
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:40 pm to theantiquetiger
Go play roulette every day for a year straight and report back when you hit the same number bet twice in a row
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:41 pm to HubbaBubba
quote:
Your intellect!
Hey, I kick arse in math, not English
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:43 pm to white perch
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:44 pm to theantiquetiger
Think of it this way...
If you and your friend were to try and replicate what you did, you'd have to start by picking the correct card in one guess (we'll call that phase 1). The odds of succeeding in phase 1 are 1:52. But after you succeed in phase 1, you still have to guess correctly again with the next immediate draw (phase 2).
So the odds say that you're only going to succeed in phase 1 only once in 52 attempts.
Then for every time you do succeed on phase 1 (every 52 draws), you're only going to have 1:52 chance To succeed again on phase 2.
52 attempts to succeed X 52 attempts to succeed = 2704
If you and your friend were to try and replicate what you did, you'd have to start by picking the correct card in one guess (we'll call that phase 1). The odds of succeeding in phase 1 are 1:52. But after you succeed in phase 1, you still have to guess correctly again with the next immediate draw (phase 2).
So the odds say that you're only going to succeed in phase 1 only once in 52 attempts.
Then for every time you do succeed on phase 1 (every 52 draws), you're only going to have 1:52 chance To succeed again on phase 2.
52 attempts to succeed X 52 attempts to succeed = 2704
This post was edited on 8/11/17 at 9:48 pm
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:45 pm to theantiquetiger
It depends on how you ask the question. If they guessed the card 1, 94, or 479 times in a row and then you asked: What are the odds a person will guess the correct card on the next draw? The answer is 1:52.
If you asked what are the odds they will guess the correct card twice in a row, the answer is 1:2704 (1/52 x 1/52).
If you asked what are the odds they will guess the correct card twice in a row, the answer is 1:2704 (1/52 x 1/52).
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:48 pm to theantiquetiger
quote:
I don't know. I hated statistics, I am an Algebra type of guy.
Based on your posts in this thread, I think you're more of a counting on your fingers type of guy.
probability of guessing the first card: 1 /52
probability of guessing the second card, after successfully guessing the first card: 1 / 52
probability of guessing both the first card AND the second card 1/52 * 1 / 52
Posted on 8/11/17 at 9:58 pm to TigerCoon
Y'all keep saying go try it again, but that's setting the rule of guessing the correct card back to back, before the first card is guessed.
That's changing what we did. I pulled a card, they guessed it correctly (1/52). I said try it again and they were correct (1/52). I didn't ask them to pick the next two cards I pull out of two full decks.
That's changing what we did. I pulled a card, they guessed it correctly (1/52). I said try it again and they were correct (1/52). I didn't ask them to pick the next two cards I pull out of two full decks.
Posted on 8/11/17 at 10:11 pm to theantiquetiger
Now Im pretty sure you're just fricking with us.
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