- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: NFL betting models: useful or mostly BS?
Posted on 6/29/26 at 2:55 pm to Coinella
Posted on 6/29/26 at 2:55 pm to Coinella
I have 1 that comes up with a point spread using penalties, line, turnovers and point differential. Most of the time it's close. If I see a 4pt difference I look into that game. If it's spot on I might not touch it. It works some years 60% and others it will be around 50%.
I bet mostly underdogs. I really would like to have a rating on every player so I could use injuries but I don't know of a website that rates Olineman and Dlineman, LB and secondary.
I bet mostly underdogs. I really would like to have a rating on every player so I could use injuries but I don't know of a website that rates Olineman and Dlineman, LB and secondary.
1
Posted on 6/29/26 at 3:02 pm to saintsfan1977
quote:
I have 1 that comes up with a point spread using penalties, line, turnovers and point differential. Most of the time it's close. If I see a 4pt difference I look into that game. If it's spot on I might not touch it. It works some years 60% and others it will be around 50%.
I bet mostly underdogs. I really would like to have a rating on every player so I could use injuries but I don't know of a website that rates Olineman and Dlineman, LB and secondary
That’s basically the kind of direction I’m going with mine too. I don’t think a model is ever going to be perfect, but if it can find where the line looks off and also tell you when not to touch a game, that’s valuable. The injury part is tough because everyone knows QB matters, but OL, DL, LB and secondary injuries can swing a game too and most people don’t really price that in right. I’m trying to build mine where player impact actually affects the projected spread, not just shows up as a note.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 3:35 pm to Coinella
It helps if you know which team gets the phone call at halftime.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 3:35 pm to MidCityTiger
Posted on 6/29/26 at 3:40 pm to Coinella
The book already does that for you. That's how they get their number. You think you know more than them?
Posted on 6/29/26 at 3:48 pm to Zendog
quote:
The book already does that for you. That's how they get their number. You think you know more than them?
Books are sharp, no doubt. But if their first number was always perfect, lines wouldn’t move and closing line value wouldn’t be a thing. I’m not trying to beat every number. I’m trying to find the few they may have hung a little light and pass on the rest.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 4:01 pm to Zendog
quote:
The book already does that for you. That's how they get their number. You think you know more than them?
You can calculate the point spread just off points scored and points against for each team. The point spread will usually be spot on just with those numbers. It doesn't factor in injuries but if there are no QB injuries the calculated line will be very close to Vegas point spread. The over /under is the same thing as well as the money line. It can all be calculated.
It's not a prediction. It's just a number to bet on.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 4:14 pm to Coinella
How are you testing your model to tell if it will be effective vs just noise?
Posted on 6/29/26 at 4:44 pm to Coinella
Save your time and energy, there are no “models” that can be built. An amazing year for a sports gambler would be winning around 55-60% of their bets
Posted on 6/29/26 at 4:46 pm to Coinella
quote:
I’m not trying to beat every number. I’m trying to find the few they may have hung a little light and pass on the rest.
Go heavy on CFB bets you love in the first few weeks of the season.
Vegas also seems to struggle a little with college baseball spreads if you really wanted to devote time to a model
Posted on 6/29/26 at 5:16 pm to Ed Osteen
I have heard of this new fangled thing called AI.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 5:43 pm to Coinella
Any model you build is going to pale in comparison to the models built by the multi-billion dollar conglomerates who are setting the lines. There is not world where your model will be better than theirs.
It is a simple, fundamental truth in modern sports gambling. 99.999% of the time, you are at a disadvantage. The 0.001% outlier is if you have personal information on one of the players… in which case, better watch out for the feds.
It is a simple, fundamental truth in modern sports gambling. 99.999% of the time, you are at a disadvantage. The 0.001% outlier is if you have personal information on one of the players… in which case, better watch out for the feds.
Page 2 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News