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Coinella
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | Louisiana |
| Biography: | Crypto Enthusiast |
| Interests: | Crypto, LSU, and Football |
| Occupation: | Crypto Founder |
| Number of Posts: | 33 |
| Registered on: | 10/17/2021 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
quote:
The book already does that for you. That's how they get their number. You think you know more than them?
Books are sharp, no doubt. But if their first number was always perfect, lines wouldn’t move and closing line value wouldn’t be a thing. I’m not trying to beat every number. I’m trying to find the few they may have hung a little light and pass on the rest.
2
re: NFL betting models: useful or mostly BS?
Posted by Coinella on 6/29/26 at 3:35 pm to MidCityTiger
:lol: :lol: :lol:
re: NFL betting models: useful or mostly BS?
Posted by Coinella on 6/29/26 at 3:02 pm to saintsfan1977
quote:
I have 1 that comes up with a point spread using penalties, line, turnovers and point differential. Most of the time it's close. If I see a 4pt difference I look into that game. If it's spot on I might not touch it. It works some years 60% and others it will be around 50%.
I bet mostly underdogs. I really would like to have a rating on every player so I could use injuries but I don't know of a website that rates Olineman and Dlineman, LB and secondary
That’s basically the kind of direction I’m going with mine too. I don’t think a model is ever going to be perfect, but if it can find where the line looks off and also tell you when not to touch a game, that’s valuable. The injury part is tough because everyone knows QB matters, but OL, DL, LB and secondary injuries can swing a game too and most people don’t really price that in right. I’m trying to build mine where player impact actually affects the projected spread, not just shows up as a note.
:cheers:
re: Unpacking SCOTUS
Posted by Coinella on 6/29/26 at 1:48 pm to Django Unchained
quote:
The only one I can think of is Fetterman
Thats why i said most. He is the only one I have ever seen in the past 5 years or so split with his party.. Other than that.. They all are like a sheep that blindly or knowingly vote to destroy this great country..
quote:
Yeah, that was more in response to the guy who said the books will limit you. I don’t think they will limit you for winning mainline bets, maybe player props and the like.
Good to know! Thanks
re: NFL betting models: useful or mostly BS?
Posted by Coinella on 6/29/26 at 1:10 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
don't listen to that doofus.
The worst they will do is start limiting your max bet and not giving you promos. if you're getting kicked off gambling sites, then you would have to be seriously fleecing them, as in for hundreds of thousands of dollars and more.
I'm not one of those big winners, but i know a guy who continuously is profiting 10's of thousands of dollars each year the last few years, and he hasn't even been limited much less kicked off the site
Well thats good to know...Not saying my model will do that good but I sure hope it does given all the work I been doing on it..
re: Unpacking SCOTUS
Posted by Coinella on 6/29/26 at 1:09 pm to Django Unchained
quote:
What’s interesting is, I don’t ever recall seeing a Dem/Marxist nominated judge that swings to the right.
But damn, it seems like half our Republican judges swing left after being appointed to SCOTUS.
Not just judges... Every Democrat in the Senate and House 99 percent of time always votes the same... They are locked step in destroying America but republicans fold when it comes to saving America... What can we do...? Yeah we vote them out but they do the exact same thing no matter who we vote into office... Its Crazy!!
quote:
They will limit you if you do shady things like arbitrage
Yeah that makes sense. I’m not really talking about arbitrage or trying to find loopholes though. What I’m building is more of a model that looks at the weekly NFL slate and grades each game by stuff like the spread, team strength, injuries/roster changes, matchup advantages, line value, confidence, and whether the game is even worth touching. The biggest thing I want it to do is not force bets. So instead of just picking every game, it may say only 4 or 5 games have enough edge and the rest are no plays. Then it grades the better spots A/B/C so I can track if the higher grades actually perform better over time.
:cheers:
re: NFL betting models: useful or mostly BS?
Posted by Coinella on 6/29/26 at 12:56 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
If you are actually good at sports gambling, every book will very very quickly realize that and stop taking your bets.
If a book is still taking your bets after a few weeks/months, just know that you are loser.
So even on the big sportsbooks like draftkings they will stop taking bets if you win to much?
NFL betting models: useful or mostly BS?
Posted by Coinella on 6/29/26 at 12:51 pm
Anybody on here ever built or followed an NFL betting model? I’ve been messing around with one for a while that grades games by spread value, roster/injury stuff, team strength, matchups, confidence, and also tries to tell you when to just stay away. I’m not saying I cracked the code or anything because we all know Sundays can make any model look stupid real quick, but I’m curious what y’all think actually makes one useful. Would y’all trust something that only gives a few A/B/C graded picks each week with a bunch of no plays, or do most people just want more action? And what would make you take it serious, a full season of posted picks before kickoff, a backtest, or both? Just wondering if this is something worth building out more or if it’s just a fun rabbit hole.
:cheers:
:cheers:
Ian says we traded for raiders first round edge Tyree Wilson
Posted by Coinella on 4/25/26 at 1:23 pm
What yall know about him
re: Its Over (SAVE Act)
Posted by Coinella on 3/17/26 at 1:19 pm to hogcard1964
quote:
I won't vote strictly Republican again.
Yeah cause Democrats will definitely be better and will make sure we have I.D to vote... I understand everyone is mad about this however we can never let Democrats gain power again. We will always have to fight with one hand tied behind our back but its better than the alternative...
re: Silo (Apple TV+)
Posted by Coinella on 3/2/26 at 9:19 am to BigNastyTiger417
This has been one of my favorite shows so far!!! It is awesome and me and my wife have been waiting on the newest season to drop! Can't wait!!
re: JD Vance confirms he's leading the WAR ON FRAUD with Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent and DOJ
Posted by Coinella on 2/25/26 at 11:08 am to OccamsStubble
quote:
Have any of the hundreds of people who defrauded me by operating fake Somali childcare centers and fake adult autism centers in Minnesota been sentenced? Convicted? Arrested? Questioned?
How about one?
None, but they sure have been going after Americans who been committing Medicare fraud in Louisiana.
re: Trump responds to the halftime show
Posted by Coinella on 2/8/26 at 9:56 pm to AtlantaThrashers
No you just cuck
God forbid whites have anything at all.. I mean NBA, Summer Olympics, and every other sport besides hockey is predominantly black… Why does everything have to have more color in it…? Who cares..?
quote:
Oh ok Gas is cheap Groceries are much cheaper More taxes back in pocket He is working for Americans to your fricking research. Maga
Exactly! I never understood these polls.. He is literally doing everything he promised so why would he be losing support..? It’s all lies or Americans are really that stupid!!
re: GMT- winter storm Sunday morning edition
Posted by Coinella on 1/25/26 at 4:16 am to vl100butch
Here in West Monroe. It’s bad here. Pretty much most of the whole parish is without power. We been having heavy sleet , freezing rain, snow, and everything in between. Temps in mid 20’s. Energy can’t help no one until it’s safe for their crews.. which I understand. Its pretty bad up here.
re: Let me get this straight folks
Posted by Coinella on 1/8/26 at 3:38 pm to Dallas loves Big D
quote:
We have a wannabe Mussolini in office because of LBGT politics, immigration and rampant drug use.
I voted Trump twice because I wanted strong borders, law and order, and an America that puts its own people first. But I’m done pretending this is working. The country feels closer to authoritarian nonsense every year, culture wars never end, and nothing actually gets fixed. I didn’t sign up for chaos, endless drama, or leaders who act like strongmen. Conservatism used to mean responsibility. This isn’t it with the response in Minnesota, Chicago, Los Angeles and Washington DC.
Next, he’s going to cancel the election because he’s afraid of losing again
You was never a real conservative if this is what throws you over the ledge.. you sound like a whiny screaming snowflake... I guess you just going to vote for democrat now cause i guess endless corruption and making everything about race is your cup of tea.. That's okay the adults are still here and will save you from yourself....
re: Maduro & wife captured, evacuated out of Venezuela. DJT
Posted by Coinella on 1/3/26 at 9:29 am to Diego Ricardo
quote:
Feel like we shouldn’t be abducting a sovereign nation’s leader without a declaration of war. However, you simply must tip your hat to the op the CIA/SF just pulled off. Didn’t know we still had that in us!
See .. maybe if you pay attention and actually do something different than listening to CNN and actually reading some of the comments here you would know he is a illegitimate president.. As in not the actual voted in president….
re: I Have Decided To Vote For Newsom Over Vance In Light Of Trump's Reiner Post
Posted by Coinella on 12/15/25 at 1:35 pm to CapnKangaroo
quote:
Pretty sure this is sarcasm pal
Well I see it so much in real life that it wouldn't surprise me if it wasn't. :cheers:
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