- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
NFL betting models: useful or mostly BS?
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:51 pm
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:51 pm
Anybody on here ever built or followed an NFL betting model? I’ve been messing around with one for a while that grades games by spread value, roster/injury stuff, team strength, matchups, confidence, and also tries to tell you when to just stay away. I’m not saying I cracked the code or anything because we all know Sundays can make any model look stupid real quick, but I’m curious what y’all think actually makes one useful. Would y’all trust something that only gives a few A/B/C graded picks each week with a bunch of no plays, or do most people just want more action? And what would make you take it serious, a full season of posted picks before kickoff, a backtest, or both? Just wondering if this is something worth building out more or if it’s just a fun rabbit hole.
9
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:52 pm to Coinella
AI board. Or degenerate gambler board.
This post was edited on 6/29/26 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:53 pm to Coinella
If you are actually good at sports gambling, every book will very very quickly realize that and stop taking your bets.
If a book is still taking your bets after a few weeks/months, just know that you are loser.
If a book is still taking your bets after a few weeks/months, just know that you are loser.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:54 pm to Coinella
The thing I hate the most about the rise of online gambling is the unrelenting advertising
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:55 pm to Coinella
quote:
if it’s just a fun rabbit hole
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:56 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
If you are actually good at sports gambling, every book will very very quickly realize that and stop taking your bets.
If a book is still taking your bets after a few weeks/months, just know that you are loser.
So even on the big sportsbooks like draftkings they will stop taking bets if you win to much?
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:57 pm to Coinella
Yes.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:57 pm to Coinella
Negative
Posted on 6/29/26 at 12:58 pm to Coinella
Call Jimmy & get his take : 225-499-1045
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:01 pm to jdd48
quote:
degenerate gambler
Like milk and cookies, rice and gravy, mac and cheese, amirite.
Just a regular, casual gambler? Hell no, if you’re a gambler, you’re a degenerate gambler.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:02 pm to Coinella
They will limit you if you do shady things like arbitrage
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:04 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
They will limit you if you do shady things like arbitrage
Yeah that makes sense. I’m not really talking about arbitrage or trying to find loopholes though. What I’m building is more of a model that looks at the weekly NFL slate and grades each game by stuff like the spread, team strength, injuries/roster changes, matchup advantages, line value, confidence, and whether the game is even worth touching. The biggest thing I want it to do is not force bets. So instead of just picking every game, it may say only 4 or 5 games have enough edge and the rest are no plays. Then it grades the better spots A/B/C so I can track if the higher grades actually perform better over time.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:08 pm to Coinella
quote:
So even on the big sportsbooks like draftkings they will stop taking bets if you win to much?
don't listen to that doofus.
The worst they will do is start limiting your max bet and not giving you promos. if you're getting kicked off gambling sites, then you would have to be seriously fleecing them, as in for hundreds of thousands of dollars and more.
I'm not one of those big winners, but i know a guy who continuously is profiting 10's of thousands of dollars each year the last few years, and he hasn't even been limited much less kicked off the site.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:10 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
don't listen to that doofus.
The worst they will do is start limiting your max bet and not giving you promos. if you're getting kicked off gambling sites, then you would have to be seriously fleecing them, as in for hundreds of thousands of dollars and more.
I'm not one of those big winners, but i know a guy who continuously is profiting 10's of thousands of dollars each year the last few years, and he hasn't even been limited much less kicked off the site
Well thats good to know...Not saying my model will do that good but I sure hope it does given all the work I been doing on it..
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:10 pm to Coinella
Yeah, that was more in response to the guy who said the books will limit you. I don’t think they will limit you for winning mainline bets, maybe player props and the like.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:11 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
If you are actually good at sports gambling, every book will very very quickly realize that and stop taking your bets.
If a book is still taking your bets after a few weeks/months, just know that you are loser.
That’s simply not true. I guess if you’re really good and bet substantial amounts of money, they will limit you. I’m currently up over 70 units this year, and they haven’t taken any action. Then again, my unit is $3.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:13 pm to TeddyPadillac
I’ve made about 40K with arbitrage and promo hedging over the years. There was one app that doesn’t exist anymore that limited me to a max bet of $1, essentially banning me. Most apps have put some sort of restrictions on my account, mostly player prop arbitrage limits. I’m still eligible for DK and FD promos, but usually for max bets of $10.
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:25 pm to Coinella
Supposedly taking the favor with a less than 6 1/2 point spread in over and under of 46 wins 60% of the time
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:26 pm to TheWalrus
quote:
Yeah, that was more in response to the guy who said the books will limit you. I don’t think they will limit you for winning mainline bets, maybe player props and the like.
Good to know! Thanks
Posted on 6/29/26 at 1:49 pm to Coinella
Not sure, but I can tell you the clowns on that SiriusXM Fantasy Sports station have zero clue what they’re talking about.
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News