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re: New thread started for Beryl
Posted on 6/6/24 at 11:39 am to doubleb
Posted on 6/6/24 at 11:39 am to doubleb
Right now, we have the big picture.
Very high SST. La Nina pattern should yield lower shear in the Caribbean and Gulf as the subtropical jet is weaker.
Big picture is hyperactive. But then we got saharan dust to think about. Are we gonna have an active wave train (this was part of the 2020 storm #s)? rds rightly mentions TUTTs coming down and shearing.
Thats the stuff we can fill in by August and adjust expectations. Like anything, we slowly narrow in on the correct answer as the info comes in/improves.
Very high SST. La Nina pattern should yield lower shear in the Caribbean and Gulf as the subtropical jet is weaker.
Big picture is hyperactive. But then we got saharan dust to think about. Are we gonna have an active wave train (this was part of the 2020 storm #s)? rds rightly mentions TUTTs coming down and shearing.
Thats the stuff we can fill in by August and adjust expectations. Like anything, we slowly narrow in on the correct answer as the info comes in/improves.
0
Posted on 6/6/24 at 11:53 am to LegendInMyMind
I’m tempted to buy his program.
I saw him on television and he is impressive with his analysis and very long range forecasts.
I saw him on television and he is impressive with his analysis and very long range forecasts.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 11:56 am to SlidellCajun
Snake Oil.
Irs dressed up climo. Oh there's gonna be something in the gulf in June? No shite, most years there's some pissant storm in June.
The northern Gulf Coast is under the gun from mid/late august to mid Sep?
Naw? Its not like 80% of the hurricanes of record in that region have happened in that timeframe.
I welcome him to actually test his methods and come up with a hypothesis (that he can test in some way) as to why it works. Until then, color me skeptical.
Irs dressed up climo. Oh there's gonna be something in the gulf in June? No shite, most years there's some pissant storm in June.
The northern Gulf Coast is under the gun from mid/late august to mid Sep?
Naw? Its not like 80% of the hurricanes of record in that region have happened in that timeframe.
I welcome him to actually test his methods and come up with a hypothesis (that he can test in some way) as to why it works. Until then, color me skeptical.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 1:04 pm to Duke
Posted on 6/6/24 at 8:56 pm to tarzana
quote:
Just five short years ago no one ever heard of a heat dome, a bomb cyclone, an atmospheric river
That's bc the term didn't exist. Those weather conditions, however, did.
They were called High Pressure System, Rapid Intisification, and Monsoon Season.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 8:58 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
LegendInMyMind
Who's that dipshit on Facebook that fear mongers every model run that shows a gulf coast landfall?
Posted on 6/6/24 at 9:10 pm to Oates Mustache
Ryan Hall?
I think his YouTube images are nothing but click bait.
I think his YouTube images are nothing but click bait.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 9:17 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Who's that dipshit on Facebook that fear mongers every model run that shows a gulf coast landfall?
I believe the page is Tropical Storm Central. Nothing but fear porn.
Prom hates that guy
Posted on 6/6/24 at 9:53 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Who's that dipshit on Facebook that fear mongers every model run that shows a gulf coast landfall?
"Weatherman Plus", and here's the thumbnail from that sorry cocksucker's latest video:
It has 27,000 views............
Posted on 6/6/24 at 10:00 pm to zsav77
quote:
Tropical Storm Central
This is it!
quote:
6/6/24 @ 2pmEST
CONFIDENCE IS RISING WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM BECOMING A RAINMAKER FOR SURE. THE 2nd SYSTEM COULD BE MUCH STRONGER BUT I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY WITH ANY POSSIBILITY!
This post was edited on 6/6/24 at 10:01 pm
Posted on 6/6/24 at 10:02 pm to LegendInMyMind
That dude is straight arse too. But Tropical Storm Central pretends to be a meteorologist and dumb arse people shower him with praise.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 10:42 pm to Oates Mustache
Hey, Wearherman Plus won't only fill you full of fear and bullshite, he'll save your soul in the process. He's a Godly man. Nevermind that he's the worst algorithm whore of the lot and preys on stupid people, he ends every video with scripture. He wouldn't steer anyone wrong.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 10:48 pm to LegendInMyMind
Legend what’s your thoughts on Crown Weather?
Posted on 6/6/24 at 10:58 pm to SWLA92
I haven't watched or read any of their work, so I don't have thoughts on them, or him, or who ever they are.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 11:10 pm to SWLA92
A few people I follow for storms without land under them are:
Philippe Papin (@pppapin)
Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack, also on YouTube)
Levi Cowan (of course, @Tropicaltidbits)
Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate)
Kim Wood (@DrKimWood) She's great for satellite porn
Alex Boreman (@cyclonicwx)
There are others I could add if I kept thinking, including a few chasers. All of these are straight shooters with different areas of expertise and different styles. They don't get in the weeds with hype. Some of it gets technical, but it is all a learning process anyway.
Philippe Papin (@pppapin)
Andy Hazelton (@AndyHazelton)
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack, also on YouTube)
Levi Cowan (of course, @Tropicaltidbits)
Mike's Weather Page (@tropicalupdate)
Kim Wood (@DrKimWood) She's great for satellite porn
Alex Boreman (@cyclonicwx)
There are others I could add if I kept thinking, including a few chasers. All of these are straight shooters with different areas of expertise and different styles. They don't get in the weeds with hype. Some of it gets technical, but it is all a learning process anyway.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 11:32 pm to LegendInMyMind
Mark does a great job always has. He’s always a good follow during hurricane season.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 11:38 pm to SWLA92
Yeah, I like him and what he's doing. I still give him a couple bucks a month on Patreon to have access to the cameras and all that he does when storms make landfall.
Posted on 6/6/24 at 11:44 pm to LegendInMyMind
Me too. What he does isn’t cheap, and the information you can get from him and that access he provides is really cool.
Posted on 6/7/24 at 5:25 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
he ends every video with scripture. He wouldn't steer anyone wrong.
Sounds like one of those people would wear a large crucifix on their neck outwardly.
Someone told me a man unless he is a man of the cloth should not wear such large crucifixes as they are the biggest cheats in the world and wear the cross as a guilty conscience.
I have nothing against religious people, just people who use religion as a crutch and don’t practice what they preach.
This post was edited on 6/7/24 at 6:08 am
Posted on 6/7/24 at 7:28 am to Duke
quote:
Irs dressed up climo. Oh there's gonna be something in the gulf in June? No shite, most years there's some pissant storm in June. The northern Gulf Coast is under the gun from mid/late august to mid Sep? Naw? Its not like 80% of the hurricanes of record in that region have happened in that timeframe. I welcome him to actually test his methods and come up with a hypothesis (that he can test in some way) as to why it works. Until then, color me skeptical.
It’s that the LRC or whatever it’s called that Fradella uses to try to predict the weather 3-4 weeks out ?
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