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Started By
Message
re: New thread started for Beryl
Posted on 6/28/24 at 9:11 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 6/28/24 at 9:11 am to LegendInMyMind
Thanks.
0
Posted on 6/28/24 at 9:44 am to rds dc
quote:
Around Day 5, a trough will move off the NE US, and a stronger system might start to feel a northward tug at that point. It is then hard to comment on the track out beyond Day 5, but if we look at the Day 7 spread, we can make some trend observations. A stronger system tracks slower and more NW, and a weaker system tracks faster and more westward.
Not much change in thinking since yesterday, but models have trended stronger with the trough moving off the NE US. A stronger trough results in an unfavorable upper air pattern pushing farther SW. This shows up nicely in the intensity guidance as a uniform decrease in intensity.
Also, the above indicates that a stronger system might be able to hold on against an unfavorable upper air pattern (the outflow from the storm might be able to fracture the PV streamer that is imparting shear on the system).
ETA: this is based on recent model data and can and probably will change
This post was edited on 6/28/24 at 10:01 am
Posted on 6/28/24 at 11:23 am to rds dc
Just say its going to lake charles and be done with it
Posted on 6/28/24 at 11:47 am to Cosmo
easy now...
Posted on 6/28/24 at 11:49 am to Cosmo
Zero chance this goes west of Lafayette
Posted on 6/28/24 at 12:18 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Just say its going to lake charles and be done with it
Posted on 6/28/24 at 12:19 pm to Hulkklogan
There’s always a fricking spaghetti noodle straight through New Orleans.
Posted on 6/28/24 at 12:22 pm to James11111
Not a word.
Hint, turn off the NPR trash.
Hint, turn off the NPR trash.
Posted on 6/28/24 at 12:24 pm to rds dc
quote:
able to hold on against an unfavorable upper air pattern (the outflow from the storm might be able to fracture the PV streamer that is imparting shear on the system).
Im sure talking about PV streamers clarified it for the people.
Posted on 6/28/24 at 12:30 pm to Duke
2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today.
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information,
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.
Posted on 6/28/24 at 1:17 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 6/28/24 at 1:18 pm to lsuman25
frick 95L man. I'm flying into cancun on the 8th. need this thing to be gone by then
Posted on 6/28/24 at 1:20 pm to trux83LSU
Is cancun the new punta cana?
Posted on 6/28/24 at 1:24 pm to The Pirate King
quote:
There is now a 100% chance of development of invest #95L
Posted on 6/28/24 at 1:27 pm to white perch
quote:
There’s always a fricking spaghetti noodle straight through New Orleans.
It's like its written into the program or something.
This post was edited on 6/28/24 at 1:29 pm
Posted on 6/28/24 at 1:35 pm to Duke
quote:
Im sure talking about PV streamers clarified it for the people.
( ) is universal for nerd talk included between
Posted on 6/28/24 at 1:43 pm to rds dc
quote:
the outflow from the storm might be able to fracture the PV streamer that is imparting shear on the system
I was about to post this
Posted on 6/28/24 at 1:54 pm to Cosmo
Posted on 6/28/24 at 2:04 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Tropical system, tropical cyclone, tropical depression, tropical storm.
Do we really need all of those names?
Do we really need all of those names?
Posted on 6/28/24 at 2:09 pm to LPLGTiger
For real, Tropical is supposed to be a fun word.
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