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re: Natural gas up 17% so far today

Posted on 11/14/18 at 2:41 pm to
Posted by TigersHuskers
Nebraska
Member since Oct 2014
15523 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 2:41 pm to
How high do you think it will go if the cold hangs on
Posted by redstick13
Lower Saxony
Member since Feb 2007
41364 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:01 pm to
Love it. We are very active in the Haynesville and looking for more. That work has great margins for my operations.
Posted by Bob Sacamano
Houston, TX
Member since Oct 2008
5294 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:03 pm to
I could see the Jan contract in the mid 5’s. I told other traders yesterday I thought we could see and 5 handle for the Jan contract. TODAY, it damn near got there. I didnt think it would test 5 that fast.

Nobody really knows. I do know its been a helluva run so far and its only mid-Nov. If it gets really cold and hits $7-$8 it will be a pain train for the unhedged.
Posted by Lefty Diego
West of the Pecos
Member since Aug 2009
741 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:11 pm to
I’m in NG midstream. Processing and moving all the West Texas gas you want.
Posted by Scooba
Member since Jun 2013
20027 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:11 pm to
quote:

Natural gas up 17% so far today



Fackkkkk

Just bought a home that runs damn near everything on NG. I really enjoyed lighting the fireplace last night. Guess that'll be the last time.

Got to save it all for the Hot Water, BBQ, Heater, Stove, etc.
Posted by Mudminnow
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
34216 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:19 pm to
I don't mean to upset anyone but will this increase Entergy's rate for electricity? I remember when natural gas prices were high after Katrina and the bill was ridiculously high.

In Houston I am locked into a 12 month plan till March, then I'll be shopping for a new provider. I don't think they can raise the rates or tack on additional fees because of the increase in natural gas. But not sure will need to check on that.

My October electric bill was $35.30 and gas bill was $25.11 for a 3887 sq ft home. We have a gas tankless water heater, gas stove, fireplace, etc.. I will need to monitor that for price increases.
This post was edited on 11/14/18 at 3:24 pm
Posted by TigersHuskers
Nebraska
Member since Oct 2014
15523 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:21 pm to
It likely will since electric companies were stupid and abandoned coal which is reliable and cheap for gas which fluctuates a lot more.
Posted by Scooba
Member since Jun 2013
20027 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

My October electric bill was $35.30 and gas bill was $25.11 for a 3887 sq ft home


quote:

3887 sq ft home

Nice

quote:

gas bill was $25.11

Mine has been in the 20's since April. Probably won't last once the heater kicks on.

quote:

electric bill was $35.30

How is that possible? I'm pretty sure there are $35 in convenience fees and regular monthly service charges.

Mine was around $110 and I thought that was pretty good.
Posted by Mudminnow
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
34216 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:40 pm to
Scooba are you in Houston? I have Discount Power -24 plan where you get an $85 bill credit when you use over 1,000 kwhr. There are 64 different providers and 314 plans to choose from. I shop around in February/March when my plan is up and have never used the same provider twice. Its also when rates are rock bottom then. I lock into a 12 month or 24 month plan then and I'm set all year long at the ultra low rate. There are some in Houston paying high electric bills but they lock into contracts in the summer or let their contract expire where it goes into a variable rate and get hammered. $158 was my highest electric bill in 5 years this past July.

Posted by SM6
Georgia
Member since Jul 2008
8972 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:47 pm to
Is Sabine Pass up and running? Exporting gas will be a yuge pressure on prices here. frick exporting our own resources, we need that here.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 3:55 pm to
quote:

I don’t trade nat gas, but doesn’t the run up happen every year on the first big cold fronts?


No. Natural gas is traded in the futures market, and the winter being cold is already included in prices.

The run up or down happens when the 1-2 week forecast is much colder/warmer than already anticipated.

ETA - Other long term forecast changes impact the price as well.
This post was edited on 11/14/18 at 4:04 pm
Posted by Scooba
Member since Jun 2013
20027 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 4:35 pm to
Nope. Northshore LA
Posted by Mudminnow
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
34216 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 5:45 pm to
Scooba, I'm guessing you only have one choice for electric provider.

A site that many in Houston use to pick an energy provider is www.powertochoose.com

Type in my zip code 77433 which is Cypress, TX. That will give you an idea of the options. The rates are still high right now.

My plan you get a usage credit when using 1,000 kwhrs. I have had the plan for 20 months and have received the $85 bill credit each and every month.

[/url]
[url=LINK ]first party benefits[/url][/img]

But bottom line there are many options for TX residents for energy providers. Almost everyone having smart meters in Houston allows for smooth transfer between service and residents can get daily emails on their usage for the previous day and a weekly summary.

I think 6 years ago 2.5M residents had smart meters.
This post was edited on 11/14/18 at 5:59 pm
Posted by Mudminnow
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2004
34216 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 7:23 pm to
Now Houston does not have the luxury of choosing a gas provider. Only one choice.
Posted by Kujo
225-911-5736
Member since Dec 2015
6044 posts
Posted on 11/14/18 at 8:07 pm to
quote:


Eta: your basic assumption is correct. low inventory and a wicked cold forecast is causing the run. Dec-Apr are way up, May forward are down.



Russia and Iran have 50% of the worlds Natural Gas right?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 12/21/18 at 8:21 am to
quote:


I could see the Jan contract in the mid 5’s. I told other traders yesterday I thought we could see and 5 handle for the Jan contract. TODAY, it damn near got there. I didnt think it would test 5 that fast.



Still feeling that way?
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 12/21/18 at 8:22 am to
Excellent bump, well done
Posted by fishfighter
RIP
Member since Apr 2008
40026 posts
Posted on 12/21/18 at 8:25 am to
quote:

It likely will since electric companies were stupid and abandoned coal which is reliable and cheap for gas which fluctuates a lot more.


Thank Obama as to why power companies jumped over to gas.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
139208 posts
Posted on 12/21/18 at 8:26 am to
quote:

Cutting the truck nuts right out of the Middle East.
Posted by Tiger Prawn
Member since Dec 2016
26317 posts
Posted on 12/21/18 at 8:27 am to
quote:

Cutting the nuts right out of the Middle East.

And hanging them right off the back of some lifted F-150's
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