Murica is winning in oil

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The majority of US shale fields are now viable at $60.

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Today's frackers can just about cope with oil prices in the $40 to $50 range.

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This sets the stage for an oil shortage and a price spike later this decade. Whether Opec can survive that long is an open question. Most of the cartel need prices of $100 to fund their regimes.

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Saudi Arabia has deeper pockets but its net foreign reserves have fallen from $737bn to $562bn, even though it is borrowing money abroad to slow the loss. It burned through another $11bn last month. Riyadh is trying to curb the country's culture of subsidy and entitlement, but was forced to sack a minister and backtrack after a 500pc rise in water prices set off an outcry. It is the famous social contract from cradle-to-grave that keeps the House of Saud in power.

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If West Texas really can boost output by another 3m barrels a day at anywhere near $55 a barrel - as Mr Sheffield claims - the Saudis may have to dig in for a very long and painful siege.

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